Browse by: "2015"
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Limiting the increase in global average temperature to below 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels will require ambitious mitigation action by a broad range of actors including Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), i.e., national governments, and non-party stakeholders (NPS). This paper focuses on three types of NPS, namely, sub-national governments, the private sector and financial institutions, and examines how the 2015 agreement could help the NPS encourage increased mitigation actions as well as the financing for such actions. The paper identifies five barriers that can prevent NPS from enhancing their actions and assesses how the current process under the UNFCCC is addressing these barriers for the pre-2020 period. It also explores options to establish or enhance links between the UNFCCC and NPS in the 2015 agreement for post-2020, in order to further address the barriers and enhance actions by NPS.
Business cycle indicators are important instruments for monitoring economic development. When employing indicators one usually relies on a sound statistical database. This paper deals with indicator development in a scarce data situation. Indicator building is merged with temporal disaggregation, which is often used by statistical offices. The discussed tools are applied in a case study for Abu Dhabi. Because the economy of Abu Dhabi is very dependent on oil, real income reflects the economic situation better than real gross domestic product (GDP). For this reason a measure of real gross domestic income (GDI) was chosen as reference series.
Keywords: Business cycle indicators, temporal disaggregation, terms of trade, oilproducing countries
JEL code: E01, E32, C22
How often should we update predictions for economic activity? Gross domestic product is a quarterly variable disseminated usually a couple of months after the end of the quarter, but many other macroeconomic indicators are released with a higher frequency, and financial markets react very strongly to them. However, most of the professional forecasters, including the IMF, the OECD, and most central banks, tend to update their forecasts of economic activity only two to four times a year. The Central Bank of Brazil, not only disseminates its official forecasts every quarter as other central banks, but also collects and publishes the results of professional forecasters’ survey data at a daily frequency. The aim of this article is to evaluate the forecasting performance of the Central Bank of Brazil Survey and to compare it with the mechanical forecasts based on state-of-the-art nowcasting techniques. Results indicate that both model and market participant predictions are well behaved, i.e. as more information becomes available their accuracy and correlation with the actual realization increases. In terms of performance the model seems to be slightly better than the institutional forecasts in the nowcast and backcast.
Keywords: Nowcasting, Updating, Dynamic Factor Model.
JEL classification: C33, C53, E37.
Twenty-one individual country business cycle chronologies, maintained and updated by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), are analysed for their degree of synchronisation with a proposed “world business cycle chronology”. Several key results emerge. First, perhaps not surprisingly, the world’s four 20th Century locomotor economies of the US, UK, Germany and Japan are statistically significantly and reasonably strongly positively synchronised with the world cycle. Second, European countries in the sample are either positively synchronised with the world cycle at zero lag or with a lag of around three months. Third, the NAFTA countries (US, Canada and Mexico) are, perhaps again not unexpectedly, quite strongly positively synchronised with the world cycle at zero lag and with each other. Fourth, the single South American country included in the sample, Brazil, is strongly positively synchronised with the world cycle at zero lag as well as with the NAFTA countries – but behaves very differently from China and India with respect to the world cycle. Fifth, interestingly, the newly industrialized East Asian countries included in the sample appear to lead the world cycle by about three to nine months. Finally, and very interestingly, there appears to be some a priori evidence of a long leading negative synchronisation between the commodity exporting countries in the sample and the world cycle.
Key words: world business cycle, synchronisation
JEL classification: E32, E37
The problems caused by state and local revenue volatility are inherently challenging. Oregon has an especially volatile revenue structure, which can cause all sorts of problems as the state moves through the business cycle. Nevertheless, we have concluded that these problems are caused less by revenue volatility per se than by adjusting spending up and down to match current revenue flows, from growing spending at unsustainable rates during booms and cutting back precipitously during busts. The mild recession of 2001-02 had a particularly severe aftermath in Oregon. This event shocked the state’s policy makers into addressing the revenue volatility issue, making sense of it, and taking steps that greatly mitigated the adverse effects of the “Great Recession”. This article describes three things: the public-policy processes that produced this moderately happy outcome, my own voyage of discovery as I observed/participated in these processes, and a set of practical mechanisms states can use to stabilise spending.
JEL classification: H11, H20, H70
Keywords: Oregon, Great Recession, cash flows, income taxes, revenue volatility
This paper tries to shed light on the Korean performance budgeting (PB) system by analysing its strength and limitations by utilising the framework of the OECD 2011 PB survey. It provides an overview of the Korean PB system and describes the Korean system based on the OECD survey results. Lastly, current issues of the Korean PB system are discussed including its future directions.
JEL classification: H61, H830
Keywords: Performance budgeting, performance information, budgeting, Korea
OECD’s Recommendation of the Council on Budgetary Governance makes a substantial contribution to discussion of good budgetary practice by synthesising much common understanding while updating it to recognise some lessons from the experience of the Great Recession. Yet its implicit understanding of the purposes of budget processes has weaknesses both as policy and political analysis. The policy understanding overemphasises the importance of budget totals relative to budget details. The political understanding is as top-down as the policy view. Although budgets might be seen as contracts between citizens and the state, in a representative system they are better seen as treaties among citizens negotiated through politics. The Recommendation barely recognizes the existence of and challenges from political conflict.
JEL classification: H00, H60, H61
Keywords: Balance, fiscal policy, information, representation, top-down, United States