Browse by: "PRE-2005"
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It is a well recognised rule in international law that the property of aliens cannot be taken, whether for public purposes or not, without adequate compensation. Two decades ago, the disputes before the courts and the discussions in academic literature focused mainly on the standard of compensation and measuring of expropriated value. The divergent views of the developed and developing countries raised issues regarding the formation and evolution of customary law. Today, the more positive attitude of countries around the world toward foreign investment and the proliferation of bilateral treaties and other investment agreements requiring prompt, adequate and effective compensation for expropriation of foreign investments have largely deprived that debate of practical significance for foreign investors.
Disputes on direct expropriation – mainly related to nationalisation that marked the 70s and 80s -- have been replaced by disputes related to foreign investment regulation ...
This paper examines the recent slowdown in bank lending that has affected several large OECD countries. The analysis begins with a description of the importance of bank credit in the financial systems of the countries considered. The origins of the lending slowdown are analysed - - including the importance of deteriorating bank balance sheets and the BIS capital rules - - as well as its potential to depress economic activity. The paper concludes with a discussion of how monetary policy should react to unusually sluggish bank lending ...
Monetary policy affects activity, and ultimately inflation, in a number of ways. The most important of these is generally considered to be through the effect of interest rates directly on the demand for goods by households and firms. However, monetary policy can also influence activity through its impact on the value of assets that, in turn, will influence the behaviour of households and firms; e.g. by changing wealth and, through an impact on balance sheets, borrowing costs. Recent financial market developments may have made these effects of monetary policy more important but at the same time less easy to predict. In particular, the size of financial markets has risen relative to activity and readily tradable assets are becoming increasingly important relative to other financial assets. Prices of such assets tend to be sensitive to shifts in market expectations about the future course of general economic developments and in particular interest rates. With these changing financial ...
Many African countries are benefiting from reductions in their external debt. One important objective is to redirect the budgetary resources released from servicing external debt towards poverty-reducing expenditures. Several questions arise in this context. First, are the public expenditure management (PEM) systems of African countries robust enough to allow specific povertyreducingexpenditures to be identified in annual budgets and tracked in countries’ accounting systems? Second, does the expenditure control system allow poverty-reducing expenditures to be protected from cuts should there be unforeseen shortfalls in revenues? Third, are internal and external audit mechanisms effective, so as to ensure the integrity of expenditure reports, both in-year and annually? To answer these and other questions, an assessment of the entire PEM system is required in each country. Such a study has already been prepared.1 During 2001, the PEM systems of 24 low-income countries were assessed based on a common set of 15 questions in the areas of budget preparation, budget execution, and fiscal reporting. Figure 1 shows the results for two regions of Africa (Anglophone countries and Francophone countries) – well below what is required to meet the objectives of effective PEM systems (both regions attained only about 40% of the required benchmarks)...
This paper reports on the construction of an Input-Output table for the economy of Morocco. The table is calibrated to the year 1990 and details the interactions between 133 primary, manufacturing, and service sectors, relying on a combination of a more aggregate table estimated by the Moroccan government and detailed data from official sources. This table will form the core of a detailed social accounting matrix (SAM) currently under construction as part of the same work programme. Ultimately, the SAM will be incorporated into a general equilibrium model, to be used cooperatively by the Development Centre, the Moroccan government, and the World Bank for trade and resource policy analysis. This report describes in detail the construction of the Input-Output table, presents the table in its entirety, and provides some preliminary multiplier estimates elucidating the links between Moroccan agriculture and the rest of the economy ...
This paper presents an application to Ecuador of a computable general equilibrium model with a financial component, following the lead of F. Bourguignon, W. Branson and J. de Melo. Their macro-micro model was introduced in Technical Paper No.1 "Macroeconomic Adjustment and Income Distribution. A Macro-micro Simulation Model".
The authors first review the crisis of the Ecuadorian economy, the stabilization programmes that were implemented by governments and the economic effects of these programmes. Then the model and the corresponding data base are presented and used to perform three dynamic simulations. In the first case, there is no adjustment; in the second simulation, all public expenditures are reduced by the same percentage; and in the third simulation, the annual growth in money supply is reduced. For each simulation, the authors display the effects on growth, imbalances and income distribution. Finally a sensitivity analysis has been undertaken in order to assess the impact ...
OECD Member countries have grown increasingly interested in the use of
contract type arrangements in the 1990s as a means of improving public sector
performance. This interest reflects a number of broad challenges to traditional
governance structures. These challenges include the demand for greater efficiency
through highly adaptive and flexible public sectors and the increasing pressure of
accumulated public debt and fiscal deficits. "Governments must strive to do
things better, with fewer resources, and, above all, differently."
- During the 1980s, following the Mexican payments crisis of August 1982, a number of debt "plans" and "strategies" have been introduced, but overall progress in resolving the situation has been slow. This paper results from a project to investigate the relationship between macroeconomic developments in OECD countries and those in debtor countries. The aim is to develop tools that can help to throw light on the importance of international linkages, including those between OECD and debtor countries, in order to understand better why many of the hopes and expectations of the various debt plans have not been realised.
- This paper presents a set of models for Latin America (DEMOD) that can be used to analyze the impact of the world macroeconomy on the economies of Latin America; these have been designed to focus in particular on growth and debt servicing capacity and to trace the development of creditworthiness indicators. In addition, debt accounting models for the highly indebted ...
The Kyoto Protocol covers emissions of a range of greenhouse gases. Yet, most attempts to quantify the economic impact of implementing the Protocol’s emission targets for the period 2008-12 have focused exclusively on CO2 emissions. This paper extends previous OECD analysis confined to CO2 alone so as to cover also emissions of methane and nitrous oxide. The paper concludes that the economic costs of implementing the targets in the Kyoto Protocol are lower than suggested by an analysis confined to CO2 alone. However, over the longer term, when larger cuts in greenhouse gas emissions are required in order to have any material effect on climate, most abatement will likely have to come from CO2 and the inclusion of other gases in the analysis may not substantially alter estimates of economic costs ...
This technical paper presents the complete technical specification of the current version of the RE-GEM (Regional and Environmental General Equilibrium Model) for India. The document lists all the key structural and behavioural equations, providing a justification for the chosen model specification. In addition, a complete description is provided of the estimation methods and the sources of the Indian data used in the model; an aggregated version of the Indian regional Social Accounting Matrix we constructed is appended to this document. The object is to inform in the most detailed way possible researchers interested in building on the OECD’s modelling effort, and to provide a useful tool for informing the debate on the economics of environmental policy in developing countries ...
A reoccurring motif in pension literature and policy is the search for “benefit security” – that is, assurance to members of a pension regime that, at the end of the working career, they will get some reasonably predictable outcome, either as a pension (benefit stream) or a lump sum. The purpose of this note is to present a simple “thought experiment” to explore this matter and how market mechanisms might be brought more to bear...
This paper reviews the accuracy of OECD projections over the 1982-1987 period. It is shown that, although the evolution of the economic climate was correctly projected, projection errors for economic activity and inflation varied significantly both through the period under consideration and between countries. But the average absolute error in GNP over the entire 1982/87 period was less than 1 percentage point. The biggest errors were made in the first half of the period and were more important for the smaller countries. An attempt is made to assess the likely impact of differences between assumed and realised economic policies, energy prices and exchange rates on the size and direction of the projection errors ...
This paper reviews the accuracy of the OECD Economic Outlook projections — both “current year” and “year ahead” — for output growth, inflation and current account balances (as a percentage of GDP) for the major seven countries, as well as projections for world trade growth. The sample period differs somewhat between the variables, depending on data availability, but it runs until 1998 in all cases. Several evaluation criteria were used to assess the accuracy of the OECD Economic Outlook projections. These include an inspection of projection error summary statistics; comparisons with “naive” alternative forecasts; statistical tests for unbiasedness and efficiency; and testing for directional accuracy. In addition, the paper provides an examination of the performance of OECD Economic Outlook projections over different time periods. The findings suggest that, on the basis of the conventional statistical criteria, the current year projections outperform the year ahead projections ...
In the beginning of the 1990s, Dutch government and representatives of employers’ organisations have urged the higher professional education sector (HBO) to restructure the supply of the programmes in the sub-sectors of HBO. The sub-sectors were challenged to cut back the number of study programmes to increase the efficiency of the supply. A theoretical framework based on resource dependence and network analysis is proposed to explain why different sub-sectors have reacted differently to the pressure to reduce the pressure. An empirical analysis is carried out for foursub-sectors: agriculture, economics, engineering and the socialcultural sector. The hypotheses could only partly be confirmed, but the simultaneous effect of government dependence, labour market dependence and sub-sector heterogeneity can be shown. Given the restricted number of cases, suggestions for further research are formulated. At the same time, it is implied to complement the chosen quantitative macro-approach with micro-analyses (case studies) on the emergence and disappearance of study programmes.