Browse by: "P"

1. There is widespread concern, particularly in Europe, about the possibility of a secular decline in profits and rates of return. The purpose of this study is to assess whether there has been a decline and to quantify it as far as possible, taking measurement problems into account. It also considers summarily the significance of observed trends and the reasons for them.
2. Profits are generally seen as an essential feature of market economies. When they are low, it is feared that enterprise and innovation will falter and the rate of investment decline, leading to sluggish growth in output and capacity. Low growth may also lead to low profits. The precise links between profits and economic performance are, however, theoretically complicated and difficult to establish empirically. This is because both economic and accounting definitions of profit cover heterogeneous phenomena and are calculated as a residual.
3. Conceptual and measurement issues are important in assessing the evolution of ...

This paper extends a previous study of profit trends to consider valuation ratios (Tobin's q) in nine countries. Tobin's q embodies market expectations and is an indicator of expected pure profit rates on the existing capital stock. Since 1982, equity markets have recovered substantially. By end-1985, values of Tobin's q were close to their 1974 levels and close to the symbolic figure of unity. The theoretical and conceptual relevance of q is considered, as well as data and measurement limitations. Real debt and equity costs of finance are considered in the light of buoyant stock markets. The implications of the strong recent recovery in q for investment are also noted ...

This paper examines the problems raised by the recent sharp increases in the ratio of public debt to GNP in most OECD Member countries. When interest rates exceed growth rates, this development appears as a symptom of instability in public finances. The paper also analyses the evolution of public debt within the wider framework of the government sector's net worth. One particular aspect of this approach -- the implicit pension liabilities of governments -- is seen to have a significant bearing on the debt outlook in several countries. Finally, the paper assesses the sensitivity of the public debt profile under alternative fiscal policy settings ...

This paper presents new domestic price blocks for the major seven economies in INTERLINK, the Economics and Statistics Department's world econometric model. Theoretical, statistical and practical aspects of new behavioural price equations are discussed in a model context. Results from a variety of diagnostic simulations using the new price blocks are presented, suggesting some important improvements in the overall simulation properties of INTERLINK compared to previous versions ...

This paper examines the empirical basis for the debt-neutrality hypothesis in an international cross-section of eight major OECD countries over the period 1961-85. The analysis uses a dynamic demand system for durable and non-durable goods derived from individual optimizing behaviour. The model nests three specifications corresponding to different degrees of consumer rationality: the traditional life-cycle consumption model, the case of inflation-adjustment of disposable income (no money illusion) and the case of full "tax discounting" (no fiscal illusion). In addition, the model incorporates explicitly the role of a variable interest rate and substitution between public and private consumption. The model is estimated using three different consumption aggregates at the single-country level and over the pooled data set. Estimates of the inflation-adjustment and fiscal illusion parameters are provided and specification tests opposing the three versions of the model are performed. The ...

This paper outlines the concepts and methods used by the OECD Secretariat to derive estimates of potential output and capacity utilisation for the major seven countries. While there are many alternative definitions of potential output, the one which is currently being used by the OECD Secretariat refers to the level of output that is consistent over the medium-term with stable inflation. The paper also contrasts the OECD approach and estimates with those published recently by the IMF. Finally, it presents the results of some INTERLINK simulations designed to illustrate some of the possible effects of faster productivity and potential output growth on macroeconomic performance ...

The P-star approach has been developed by the U.S. Federal Reserve as a new indicator of inflationary pressures. This paper assesses its usefulness for 20 OECD Member countries. Regression results are presented and in-sample tracking ability and forecasting performance of the equations are compared to rival inflation models and official OECD projections ...

This Technical Paper examines: (i) how the governments of the six dynamic Asian economies — Hong Kong, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan, and Thailand — have responded to the challenge posed by the Montreal Protocol to reduce their consumption of ozone-depleting substances like chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and methyl chloroform (MC); (ii) how electronics firms in those economies have coped with the technical and other problems involved in substituting for CFC-113 and MC in their cleaning operations. The paper shows how different national control strategies and policy frameworks can shape incentives for conservation and recycling; countries with quantitative restrictions in place have been highly effective in curtailing CFC consumption. Once quotas are in place, governments do well to devise an allocation system that enables them to capture the bulk of the quota rents to finance measures designed to facilitate the phase-out effort. Substantial reductions through conservation measures ...

This paper forms part of on-going OECD work on the economic assessment of public pension systems in view of the process of the ageing of populations. It provides indicative estimates of the likely size of public pension liabilities in the main seven economies based on simplifying assumptions, and analyses various methods of financing these liabilities. The methodology developed here is based on the so-called generational accounts approach. Such accounts indicate in present-value terms the lifetime financial burden government programmes impose on present and future generations. Up to now, the methodology has been used to estimate public pension liabilities in France and Belgium, in the framework of the 1993 OECD Economic Surveys for those countries ...

This paper begins with an explanation of the need for a gender perspective in the participatory development field. Subsequently it examines some of the obstacles to achieving the goals, such as cultural beliefs and practices, including the social organisation of production. Ways of surmounting these obstacles include: a gender focus of efforts, advocacy, flexible funding and evidence that participation works. Various positions in the debate in regard to: the project paradigm, social actors versus communities as entities and women's organisations and participatory development issues are also presented. An effort is made to spell out the implications of gender differentiation with numerous examples from the literature and interviews ...

The paper discusses the pros and cons of liberalising foreign investment of pension assets in developing countries, with particular reference to Chile. The positive part of the paper examines the impact on macroeconomic policy of a small country's opening its equity market for investment; the investment strategies of, and the restrictions imposed upon, privately-managed pension funds; and the specific British experience with portfolio diversification after the dismantling of capital controls in 1979. The normative part, while finding only a weak case for regulating foreign pension investment (loss of savings, domestic capital markets), discusses various techniques of such regulation ...

• The rapid ageing of populations in the rich economies can be expected to stimulate strong growth in private funded pensions, providing a massive potential of foreign finance for developing countries. • Pension managers can reap big diversification benefits by investing on the emerging stock markets of the younger economies, benefits which are largely unexploited so far. • The authorities in OECD countries should consider removing regulatory constraints imposed on pension assets that deprive retirees from the pension-improving benefits of global diversification. • Policy makers in developing countries should design policies that reassure institutional investors on default risk and stock market illiquidity, if they want to tap a higher share of OECD pension assets.

Governments often regulate prices for public utilities. As telecommunication services markets have been opened to competition, new ways had to be found to regulate prices of the former monopoly carriers.

This document was prepared by Mr Peter Davies, consultant, in collaboration with the Secretariat. The main conclusions are that: Copyright is the right regime for software protection on the information superhighway. Exclusive reproduction rights should remain with the copyright holder. Content owners will place their goods on the superhighway and decide for themselves about price, payment and the risk of piracy. Schemes for electronic payment for the use of services on the superhighway are being tried. For many people, the traditional means of payment will suffice for some time.

. Political commitment is the key ingredient needed for economic take-off and long-term growth. Poor countries will be unable to escape the vicious circle of poverty unless they and the international community join forces. . Inappropriate financial policies can lead to a decline in and poor allocation of savings, subsequently holding back growth. . Trade liberalisation not only strengthens growth, but also enhances the effectiveness of other economic policies. . Basic education is a prerequisite for economic take-off, just as the subsequent training of skilled labour is one of the keys to long-term growth. . Policies aimed at fostering long-term growth must be complementary; mistakes in one area can totally undermine efforts made elsewhere.

This volume is part of a series of monographs on private pensions in OECD countries. Previous titles have considered the situation in Canada, Ireland, New Zealand and the United States.

The United Kingdom pension system has some distinctive characteristics. Publicly-provided pensions have become less important as a source of retirement income. The ageing of the population will shrink the numbers of those working relative to those receiving old-age pensions, but because of the low rates of public pension payments, contribution rates will not need to rise dramatically to cover pension costs. Funded company-based schemes are extensive, with one of the highest asset to GDP ratios among the OECD countries. Personal private pensions are growing rapidly in coverage. Evidence suggests that these pension funds have boosted saving and increased the supply of long-term funds, so stimulating the development of capital markets.

The size and scope of private pensions in the United Kingdom makes the ...

As most other OECD Member countries had already done, Australia has, since 1991, supplemented an existing flat-rate universal (but means-tested) residence-based old-age pension by a compulsory earnings related second tier for employees known as the “Superannuation Guarantee”. However, it was the first Member country in which the favoured format of participation in the second tier is in the form of pure “money purchase” schemes in which benefits are determined solely by the amount which accumulates in individual accounts. Benefits are predominately paid as lump-sums on retirement, although tax arrangements are being changed to encourage beneficiaries to purchase annuities.

This report, compiled by two Australian experts, describes this system and its relation to pre-existing tax-advantaged voluntary provision, which only covered one-third of employees but remains predominant in terms of assets accumulated and benefits payable.

The report discusses the sources of retirement ...