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The development of purchasing power parities as converters of national accounts aggregates to comparable volume figures is important for international economic comparisons. This study is primarily concerned with the aggregation of price relativities to basic heading level: that is, the level below which there are no expenditure weights available across all of a given group of countries. Eight possible methods of aggregation to basic heading level are identified and appropriate summary statistics developed to assist in the subsequent practical investigation of these methods. This is undertaken using price data for 37 basic headings in ten OECD countries ...
This paper analyses the change in the Austrian business cycle over time using data back to 1954. The change in the cyclical pattern is captured using a non-linear univariate structural time series model where the time of the break point is estimated. Results for GDP series suggest a break in the frequency of the cycle and in the parameter covering the variance of the disturbances of the cycle taking place in the mid 1970s and early 1980s, respectively. Using data for GDP components a break in these variables is found too, but the timing of the break differs among the series. In a further step the paper assesses the relevance of these findings for forecasting purposes. It is shown that during certain periods the out-of-sample forecasting performance of GDP does improve when a break in one of the two parameters is explicitly modelled.
This paper displays and discusses historical data on sovereign debt prices for two Latin American countries and provides a signalling framework to account for the following phenomena: (a) prices for old (defaulted) and newly-issued debts were the same, but such prices diverge and rise sharply once the countries stopped issuing new foreign debt, and, (b) the price of defaulted and newly issued debts both tend to rise as the latter approaches maturity and the country starts redeeming all its outstanding obligations. The analysis sheds some light on the valuation of different debt instruments in today's secondary market for LDC debt ...
The feasibility and relevance of measuring human rights, democracy and governance have long been controversial both in the human rights community and in the international statistical family. Within the human rights community, the term “indicator” has had two distinct - and somewhat contrasting - meanings: while for some it designated, in the strict statistical sense, quantitative synthetic information based on robust data (Türk, 1990; Alston, 1998), for many others it designated a qualitative synthetic overview based on extensive sets of questions or “checklists” related to key human rights dimensions (Green, 2001). The latter meaning has deeply marked the approach to human rights assessments that has prevailed within the UN system and among most human rights leading experts during the last decades.
Both OECD and developing economies have embarked on structural reforms aimed at dismantling regulations and reducing the extent of distortions affecting different sectors of their economies. Regardless of the marked differences, both groups have to deal with the problems of the appropriate sequencing and speed of reforms. This paper first critically reviews the LDC related literature on sequencing and speed of structural reforms drawing out features which are of relevance for OECD economies. The paper then develops a formal framework based on a welfare criterion for evaluating different sequencing scenarios. The framework emphasises the microeconomic or efficiency effects of structural policies paying particular attention to the way in which distortions interact both intra and inter temporally. The framework is then used to discuss some of the important issues such as the sequencing of micro and macro reforms ("competition of instruments"), broad front versus sequential ...
This paper investigates how digital technologies have shaped the concentration of inventive activity in cities across 30 OECD countries. It finds that patenting is highly concentrated: from 2010 to 2014, 10% of cities accounted for 64% of patent applications to the European Patent Office, with the top five (Tokyo, Seoul, San Francisco, Higashiosaka and Paris) representing 21.8% of applications. The share of the top cities in total patenting increased modestly from 1995 to 2014. Digital technology patent applications are more concentrated in top cities than applications in other technology fields. In the United States, which has led digital technology deployment, the concentration of patent applications in top cities increased more than in Japan and Europe over the two decades. Econometric results confirm that digital technology relates positively to patenting activities in cities and that it benefits top cities, in particular, thereby strengthening the concentration of innovation in these cities.
A general problem for survey conductors is the fact that the response decision can be connected to the intended answer of the non-respondents. This nonresponse bias might have a substantial effect on the aggregated results. In this paper, a participation framework for the widely used business cycle balance statistics indicators is examined. An extensive simulation study is performed to analyse their effects. The analyses show that these indicators are extremely stable towards nonresponse biases.
AV for heavy commercial vehicles offers immediate benefits in terms of automated features that assist drivers. Automated features that support or relieve the heavy vehicle driver in well-defined circumstances will play an important role in advancement of the freight industry. Some significant uncertainties need to be navigated before highly-automated vehicles (HAVs) play an important role for heavy vehicles.
In recent years the euro area has shown less resilience to the negative and largely OECD-wide common shocks than the English-speaking countries, but most of the smaller euro area countries have fared better than the large ones. This paper reviews policy issues that are important in fostering a speedy adjustment to shocks. We argue that the small countries are well placed to adjust swiftly to asymmetric shocks, because they are well integrated with the rest of the area. An activist fiscal policy is not needed and also not powerful enough to smooth the cycle. However, asset bubbles are a cause of concern as their limited weight means that the common monetary policy is more likely to be out of line with their cyclical position. Large countries are less well placed to cope with shocks and sluggish adjustment can be expected. Reforms should focus on raising trade linkages via the completion of the single market, on improving wage and price flexibility and on making their housing markets ...
This paper provides an analysis of the diverse range of SME and entrepreneurship policy measures implemented during the course of a year since the start of the COVID-19 crisis, with a view to identify lessons learned and implications for policy going forward, and assist governments build evidence-based policies to support SME recovery and resilience. The paper documents how SMEs were at the centre of the disruptions at the start of the pandemic and that one year later they stand in an even more precarious position, in particular young firms and start-ups, the self-employed, as well as women-led or minority-owned businesses. Governments acted swiftly to put in place ambitious support for SMEs and entrepreneurs, but one year into the pandemic, they are facing a complex dilemma that emergency liquidity support remains essential but at the same time it is not sustainable over the longer term and may have potential negative effects that need to be addressed to support the recovery. This paper formulates 15 lessons learned to help governments address three challenges: First, to continue support measures to avoid a liquidity crisis among SMEs while minimising the negative side effects; Second, to ensure that the gradual phase out of this emergency support does not create an SME solvency crisis; And third, to introduce effective policies that foster SME recovery.
Governments are increasingly trying to limit the costs of regulatory compliance. One of the approaches that has been gaining ground in the last five years is the “one-in, x-out rule”, or the offsetting of regulatory costs stemming from new regulations by reducing the existing regulatory stock. This paper presents examples of regulatory offsetting approaches in selected OECD countries. By comparing the different approaches and discussing their key features, the paper provides guidance to countries considering introducing regulatory offsetting. This paper finds that there are many methodological and implementation issues that need to be resolved before a government decides to use a one-in, x-out approach as part of its regulatory policy. Key suggestions for countries introducing regulatory offsetting include i) ensuring a solid methodology for calculating regulatory costs; ii) linking the responsibility for finding offsets to the “owners” of regulation; iii) setting up quality oversight mechanisms; iv) securing strong political commitment and support and v) implementing regulatory offsetting as a complement to other regulatory management tools.
This paper first reviews a number of stylised facts concerning OECD country business cycles over the past four decades. In general, the amplitude of business cycles has fallen, driven mainly by declining fluctuations of domestic demand. As a result, international divergencies of cyclical positions have diminished but, outside the euro area, there is little evidence of increased synchronisation of cycles. The paper then reviews a number of influences on business cycles. The evidence suggests that, on balance, features of macroeconomic policies may have tended to reduce cyclical volatility and structural changes, notably the increased share of the service sector in the economies, have also tended to dampen the cycle. More recently, there are signs that financial market prices have increasingly moved in sympathy across countries, and the final section of the paper illustrates how this could affect the international transmission of cyclical shocks and the associated need for policy ...