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This paper outlines the findings of the Poland case study of the Lódzkie region for the international project, Local scenarios of demographic change. The Lódzkie region is located in the central part of Poland, at the intersection of several major arterial roads; Berlin-Moscow and Gdansk-Vienna. Despite the excellent location, the region is affected by several demographic challenges, partly related to the region’s proximity to Warsaw, the Polish capital city. The official strategic documents for regional development have been focused on “hard” infrastructure development, with limited attention being paid to current or future demographic and social challenges, such as the declining and ageing population, which pose significant obstacles to future regional development. Profound public interest in demographic change, however, has resulted in the creation of a plan for 2013-2014 to forestall this predicted depopulation, and also, in the preparation of a demographic development strategy for the following years.

Luxembourg’s large foreign-born population is a pillar of the country’s prosperity: they have brought skills and knowledge to many sectors of the economy. They also tend to successfully find jobs, with a higher employment rate than natives. However, not all immigrants have done well. The minority from non-EU origin (about 10% of the country’s population) suffers from high unemployment, large gender gaps in activity and below-average incomes. Refugees are particularly vulnerable. Other integration shortcomings go beyond disadvantaged minorities. Pervasive labour market segmentation is well illustrated by the marked under-representation of the foreign-born in public sector jobs. Political participation of immigrants at local level is modest. At school, their children are often put at a disadvantage by an education system which tends to perpetuate socio-economic inequality.
The diversity of Luxembourg’s society contributed by immigrants should be seen as an asset for economic growth and well-being. Initiatives such as the diversity charter can help private and public organisations to reap the benefit of diversity through the inclusion of outsiders and the strengthening of social cohesion. Learning the languages of Luxembourg, developing social capital and having foreign qualifications validated are key preconditions for successful integration. Education requires both general equity-enhancing reforms, starting at early childhood, and targeted support to disadvantaged students, including upgraded vocational studies. Furthermore, job matching and social cohesion would benefit from greater immigrant participation in public sector employment and civic life. Avoiding that asylum seekers undergo protracted inactivity is also a concern.
This Working Paper relates to the 2017 OECD Economic Survey of Luxembourg (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-luxembourg.htm).

Digitalisation, automation and future technological changes are changing the world of work, affecting the skills needed to perform them. The future of jobs will not look like the present situation: increasingly, workers will have to adapt to fast technological change, accept more mobility during their career, and regularly upgrade their skills to remain employable. Luxembourg’s workforce is highly skilled, reflecting the concentration in the country of sophisticated firms in the financial sector and other top-end international services. However, some middle- skilled routine jobs – especially back office, custodian and legal services in the financial sector – may disappear as a result of automation. Workers with strong and adaptable skills will be well prepared to thrive in this new environment. While many individuals working in Luxembourg already possess such characteristics, many others do not, resulting in a relatively high level of skills mismatch. Further improvements in the education system are needed to address this challenge, provide the young with learning-to-learn as well as technical capabilities and avoid that large groups of people are left behind. As skill sets will need to be updated during working careers, the system of initial education must be complemented by a flexible system of lifelong learning, tailored to the special needs of individuals with limited education attainment and older workers.
Better use of existing skills would entail reorienting labour market policies from supporting job creation towards high-quality training programmes with substantial on-the-job learning component and reflecting future labour market needs. The tax and benefit system needs to be adjusted to increase incentives to work for low-skilled youth, older workers and second earners. Fully individualised taxation would increase incentives to work of second earners and make the tax system more gender neutral, while an additional parental leave entitlement for fathers may result in more gender-balanced use of part-time work.
This Working Paper relates to the 2017 OECD Economic Survey of Luxembourg (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-luxembourg.htm).

Developing activities in areas other than finance would help to sustain growth and deal with the declining potential output and trend productivity growth that Luxembourg’s economy is facing. Given the relatively high labour costs, Luxembourg’s future comparative advantages are likely to lie in higher value added and skill intensive activities. Further development of Luxembourg’s high living standards thus requires strengthening the economy’s growth potential via further diversification of activity in high value added sectors. Stepping up investment in knowledge based capital and enterprise innovation can help Luxembourg to maintain and further develop comparative advantages in high value added activities. The government is promoting the formation of enterprise clusters by providing networking, infrastructure investment and financial support for research and development. To enhance the efficiency of the government’s policy, high priority should be given to outcome-oriented evaluation. This is required to ensure that costly infrastructure investment yields good results. Further efforts should be made to create synergies via cross-border initiatives, in particular with respect to research. Experience in other countries points to the importance of regulatory framework conditions in product and labour markets to spur enterprise dynamics. Regulation in professional services can be made more competition friendly, and impediments to labour force participation, notably for women, can be reduced. Productivity and innovation are also affected by the effectiveness of the secondary education system to produce skilled workers, which in Luxembourg is hampered by high repetition rates among students. This Working Paper relates to the 2015 OECD Economic Survey of Luxembourg (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-luxembourg.htm).
Over the last two and a half decades, Luxembourg’s financial sector emerged as a leading international hub for asset management and investment funds and became a key contributor to growth. Diversification into new areas of financial asset management is continuing. However, changing financial market regulation in Europe, increased international transparency requirements for banking and heightened international competition pose challenges. Moreover, the financial sector has reached a size where its contribution to the economy’s overall growth might diminish. Maintaining sound framework conditions is important for further diversification in the financial sector, building on Luxembourg’s existing comparative advantage and investors’ trust in its economic stability. Regulators should ensure financial intermediaries maintain strong capital ratios to address potential financial market shocks from abroad and real estate risks in the domestic economy. Assessment of systemic risks should be based on a framework that accounts for the various linkages between the banks and the other relevant financial market actors, notably investment funds. Given that the bulk of the banks in Luxembourg are affiliates of foreign bank groups, the authorities should seek clear procedures that govern the (cross-border) resolution of large banks in bad times. Moreover, implementation of the remaining steps in upgrading the tax transparency regulations Luxembourg has committed to can increase incentives for banks to further refine their business models, benefitting Luxembourg’s financial sector in the medium term. This Working Paper relates to the 2015 OECD Economic Survey of Luxembourg (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-luxembourg.htm).

As with other policies offering lower prices to at least some buyers, loyalty and fidelity discounts are generally pro-competitive and beneficial to consumers even though they may harm certain competitors. Potential problems exist, however, when such discounts are employed in ways that reduce price transparency, exclude or restrict a significant number of actual or potential competitors, or raise the probability of anticompetitive co-ordination.
The sometimes complex pro- and anti-competitive effects of loyalty and fidelity discounts are explored in the executive summary, background paper and summary of discussion pertaining to a June 2002 OECD Competition Committee roundtable discussion of the topic. While these documents reveal some interesting policy differences among various members of the Competition Committee, they also point to general agreement that loyalty and fidelity discounts are more likely to raise competition concerns when practised by firms enjoying substantial market power.

French

Lowering high levels of unemployment and inequality are amongst the largest challenges facing South Africa. More entrepreneurs and thriving small businesses would contribute to inclusive growth. Measures of entrepreneurial activity are lower in South Africa than in other emerging economies. Barriers to entrepreneurship include bureaucratic procedures and licensing, which are also an ongoing burden on small firms. Public procurement is being used to overcome the dominance of large incumbents, but so far its net effect on small firms is not clear. An education system that better equipped students with basic skills as well as entrepreneurial skills would grow the pipeline of entrepreneurs. New forms of financing are slowly emerging in a system that is dominated by banks. A better evidence base is crucial for more effective financial and non-financial support programmes to boost start-up rates and small firms’ growth.

The term low-emission development strategies (LEDS) first emerged under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 2008 and its possible role in a future climate framework continues to be debated. Though no formally agreed definition exists, LEDS are generally used to describe forward-looking national economic development plans or strategies that encompass low-emission and/or climate-resilient economic growth. LEDS can serve multiple purposes but are primarily intended to help advance national climate change and development policy in a more co-ordinated, coherent and strategic manner. A LEDS can provide value-added to the myriad of existing climate change and development related strategies and reports that already exist by providing integrated economic development and climate change planning.

This paper outlines how the concept of LEDS has evolved in the climate policy discourse and explores how it could usefully add to the large number of existing strategies, action plans, and reporting documents that are already available. The paper outlines gaps that LEDS could fill, the elements it could contain, and how LEDS can be prepared to ensure that they are effective and efficient in delivering their intended goals. To derive early lessons and insights on experiences, challenges, and approaches adopted in the preparation of national climate change strategies and LEDS, this paper examines seven countries in detail: Guyana, Indonesia, Israel, Mexico, Nigeria, Thailand and the UK.

Each country will face its own specific challenges in preparing a LEDS. Common challenges are likely to include: advancing agreement across government on priority policies; obtaining and analysing reliable data on mitigation costs and climate change impacts; identifying and addressing barriers to implementation; and limited financial and human resources. Despite these challenges, the process of preparing a LEDS can facilitate working towards agreement across government on economic development and climate change priorities, and can help attract political support and funding, both domestically and from the international community.

This paper discusses the main barriers and possible solutions to the decarbonisation of steel and cement industries. First, the paper details the economic, regulatory, technological and political economy barriers that impede a low carbon transition. Then, it addresses the role of material efficiency and enhanced recycling in greening these industries, and reviews the emerging and near commercial low- and zero- emissions production technologies. Finally, the policy packages that could contribute to trigger demand and supply decarbonisation of steel and cement are discussed.

In Italy, as well as in other Southern European countries, low labor market participation rates of married women are observed together with low birth rates. Our proposed explanation for this apparent anomaly involves the Italian institutional structure, particularly as reflected in rigidities and imperfections in the labor market and characteristics of the publicly-funded child care system. These rigidities tend to simultaneously increase the costs of having children and to discourage the labor market participation of married women.

We analyze a model of labor supply and fertility, using panel data from the Bank of Italy which have been merged with regional data describing the available opportunities in each sample household’s environment. The empirical results show that the availability of child care and part time work increase both the probability of working and having a child. Policies which would provide more flexible working hours choices and greater child care availability ...

  1. Fertility rates have declined in most OECD countries to levels that are well below those needed to secure generation replacement. While attitudes towards this decline in fertility rates differ across countries, several OECD governments have introduced — or are considering — specific measures aimed at countering it. Such measures are often justified by government’s wish of either reducing some of the negative consequences of population ageing for society as a whole, or of removing obstacles that discourage those women wishing to have more children from doing so, because of the negative economic consequences of childbearing and of the length of the associated responsibilities. This paper provides a comparative overview of the evidence about the size, timing and nature of this decline in fertility rate across “mature” OECD countries, and about the effects of different measures introduced to deal with it.
  2. The first chapter of this paper reviews a range of indicators of the fertility ...
Out of a commitment to reducing carbon dioxide emissions, Ireland’s Department of Education and Science has designed and constructed two low energy schools, in Tullamore, County Offaly, and Raheen, County Laois. With energy use in buildings responsible for approximately 55% of the CO2 released into the atmosphere and a major contributor to global warming, the Department researched the latest construction techniques and systems that lower energy consumption.
French

The expansion of school-based sexuality education in most countries has taken place with a strong focus on conveying information about sexual and reproductive health. While this is important so too is addressing the actual social contexts where relationships develop and the normalcy of pleasurable sexual and affective encounters. This is not only aligned with the rights and best interest of children and adolescents, it is also a more effective way to improve sexual and reproductive health outcomes for all.

A positive and inclusive approach to sexuality education that addresses the actual social contexts of sex and relationships is assertive of the rights, dignity and safety of all individuals, irrespectively of their physical and intellectual ability, gender identity and expression, sexual orientation and sex characteristics.

In New Zealand, the funding of higher education research has been influenced by revised policy-driven imperatives. Amidst the institutional reactions to new criteria for governmental funding, individual academics are being asked to increase their productivity in order for their employing institution to access public funding. For this to occur, these three stakeholders need to have a reasonable understanding of one another’s core research objectives and align, as best possible, the strategies they employ to achieve them. This alignment of effort is not without challenges: it may, for example, result in ambivalence as staff resort to behaviours that contest institutional powers over their changing roles and responsibilities. In order to address these challenges, there needs to be further reflection on how the efforts of all parties can be better aligned and collaboratively integrated.

Greening the economy entails jobs contracting in “high-polluting” economic activities and expanding in environment-friendly activities. Minimizing the corresponding transition costs is crucial to accelerate decarbonisation and reduce displacement costs for affected workers. Using individual-level labour force data for a large sample of European countries, this paper finds that the shares of green and high-polluting jobs remained approximately stable between 2009 and 2019, hinting at a slow or yet-to-come green transition in labour markets. Green and high-polluting jobs are unequally distributed across socioeconomic groups: women are under-represented in both green and high-polluting jobs, while green jobs are associated with higher educational attainment, and high-polluting jobs with lower educational attainment. Equally important from a policy perspective, the results show that high-polluting jobs are concentrated in rural areas. These results are confirmed by analyzing labour market transitions: for instance, while women are more likely to transition from study to job, they are significantly less likely to get a green job. Overall, the results suggest that well designed and targeted policies are needed to support efficient and inclusive labour market transitions in the greening economy: to minimize scarring effects for displaced workers, help individuals’ upskilling and reskilling, and support the matching between workers and jobs in higher demand.

Combining the longitudinal dimension and the retrospective calendar of the French Labour Force Survey (2003-2011), we analyse the labour market transitions and outcomes of workers who were dismissed for economic reasons. This study analyses the re-employment patterns of displaced workers and their earnings losses, as is common in the literature, as well as the consequences of displacement for other aspects of job quality. Results suggest that the cost of involuntary job loss is important and goes beyond the fall in earnings. Workers who are made redundant face relatively long spells of non-employment before getting back to work and their new jobs tend to be of lower quality than their pre-displacement jobs along a number dimensions. Re-employed displaced workers suffer a monthly wage penalty of 15-20% and are, on average, nine times as likely to lose their job again as are workers who have not been made redundant. In addition, displaced workers are more likely to work part-time once re-employed, and to have fewer paid holidays and lower job authority than had they not been dismissed, though these differences tend to fall over time.

Loss carryover provisions are an essential part of corporate tax systems. Economic theory suggests that perfect intertemporal loss offsets are a necessary condition for the neutrality of corporate taxation across investment projects with different risk profiles. However, in practice the tax treatment of losses does often not reach this standard, e.g., due to lack of inflation indexation or tax offset restrictions. Using detailed country-level information, this paper presents two tax policy indices capturing the effects of carryover provisions on tax symmetry and stabilisation across a total of 34 OECD and non-OECD countries. The tax symmetry index captures the effectiveness of carryover provisions, including carry-forwards and carry-backs, relative to full symmetry, while the stabilisation index captures the proportion of an adverse revenue shock on loss-making firms which is absorbed by the corporate tax system. The results show that only 18 countries provide unlimited carry-forwards and most countries do not index tax losses to inflation; only 9 countries provide carry-backs while 8 countries limit the amount of tax losses which can be offset in any given year. Cross-country comparison of the two indices suggests that these restrictions have significant impacts on tax symmetry and stabilisation. Perfect tax symmetry is not achieved by the majority of the included corporate tax systems thus implying possible tax-induced distortions towards less risky projects.

  • 09 Nov 2012
  • Åsa Johansson, Yvan Guillemette, Fabrice Murtin, David Turner, Giuseppe Nicoletti, Christine de la Maisonneuve, Guillaume Bousquet, Francesca Spinelli
  • Pages: 31
This report presents the results from a new model for projecting growth of OECD and major non-OECD economies over the next 50 years as well as imbalances that arise. A baseline scenario assuming gradual structural reform and fiscal consolidation to stabilise government-debt-to GDP ratios is compared with variant scenarios assuming deeper policy reforms. One main finding is that growth of the non-OECD G20 countries will continue to outpace OECD countries, but the difference will narrow substantially over coming decades. In parallel, the next 50 years will see major changes in the composition of the world economy. In the absence of ambitious policy changes, global imbalances will emerge which could undermine growth. However, ambitious fiscal consolidation efforts and deep structural reforms can both raise long-run living standards and reduce the risks of major disruptions to growth by mitigating global imbalances.
French

This paper provides an overview of the nature and key priorities of family support services operating in OECD countries to inform on the factors that contribute to their quality and delivery effectiveness. The evidence collated in this paper draws from the responses to Questionnaires answered by delegates to the OECD Working Party on Social Policy and by around 170 family service providers from OECD countries. The report discusses policy options to help countries develop and sustain the effective delivery of family support services throughout childhood, improve their quality, and to make better use of digital tools to enhance service delivery.

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