Browse by: "F"

This paper describes a method for parameterising fan charts around GDP growth forecasts of the major OECD economies as well as the aggregate OECD. The degree of uncertainty – reflecting the overall spread of the fan chart – is based on past forecast errors, but the skew – reflecting whether risks are tilted to the downside – is derived from a probit model-based assessment of the probability of a future downturn.
This approach is applied to each of the G7 countries separately, with combinations of variables found to be useful in predicting future downturns at different horizons up to 8 quarters: at short horizons of 2-4 quarters, a flattening or inverted yield curve slope, recent sharp falls in house prices, share prices or credit; at longer horizons of 6-8 quarters, sustained strong growth in house prices, share prices and credit; and at all horizons, a tight labour market and rapid growth in OECD-wide (or in some cases euro-wide) house prices, share prices or credit. The in-sample fit of the probit models appears reasonably good for all G7 countries.
The predicted probabilities from the probit models provide a graduated assessment of downturn risk, which is reflected in the degree of skew in the fan chart. Fan charts computed on an out-of-sample basis around pre-crisis OECD forecasts published in June 2008 encompass the extreme outturns associated with the Global Financial Crisis for five of the G7 countries. A weakness of the approach is that, although it predicts a clear majority of past downturns, it will not predict atypical downturns. For example, in the current conjuncture, it is unlikely that current concerns about risks associated with Brexit, an escalation of trade tensions or spillovers from emerging markets would be picked up by the models. At the same time, a severe downturn triggered by such atypical events might be more severe if more typical risk factors are also high.

Academic staff and the academic research, teaching and scholarship they undertake are quite properly the prime focus in universities. However, in the modern university, these functions could not be carried out without the input of general (AKA “nonacademic”) staff. Staff who are not members of academe represent about 50% of all staff, and as a group are treated with antipathy by many academics. The terms “governance” and “administration” are misunderstood by many academics and used interchangeably when it suits them. This paper considers the binary divide between “academic” and “non-academic” staff, and considers the importance of terminology in ensuring that the total university can operate as efficiently as possible...

Productivity growth is slowing down among OECD countries, coupled with increased misallocation of resources. A recent strand of literature focuses on the role of non-viable firms (“zombie firms”) to explain these developments. Using a rich firm-level dataset for one of the OECD countries with the largest drop in barriers to firm exit and restructure, we assess the role of zombies on firm dynamics, both in the extensive and intensive margins. We confirm the results on the high prevalence of zombie firms, significantly less productive than their healthy counterparts and thus dragging aggregate productivity down. Moreover, while we find evidence of positive selection within zombies, with the most productive restructuring and the least productive exiting, we also show that the zombies' productivity threshold for exit is much lower than that of nonzombies, allowing them to stay in the market, distorting competition and sinking resources. Zombie prevalence curbs the growth of viable firms, in particular the most productive, harming the intra-sectoral resource reallocation. We show that a reduction in exit and restructuring barriers promotes a more effective exit channel and fosters the restructuring of the most productive. These results highlight the role of public policy in addressing zombies' prevalence, fostering a more efficient resource allocation and enabling productivity growth.

Fertilisers are crucial components of food systems, with impacts beyond agricultural markets. This study utilises the OECD-FAO Aglink-Cosimo model to examine the intricate interplay between fertiliser markets, policies, and their repercussions on agricultural markets, food security, and environmental sustainability over the medium term. Two distinct scenario analyses reveal significant insights. The first scenario shows that while short-term disruptions in fertiliser supply can be mitigated by existing stocks, prolonged deficits will increase global food prices by up to 6%, posing long-term threats to agriculture. In the second scenario, the removal of fertiliser subsidies in India leads to reduced domestic use, resulting in decreased agricultural production and exports coupled with increased imports. Although this will cause a modest 0.8% increase in global food prices, it will substantially cut agricultural greenhouse gas emissions by 7 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent, highlighting the pivotal role of domestic policies in attaining global environmental sustainability goals.

This paper analyses the association of labour market outcomes and family policies with fertility trends between 2002 and 2019 in 26 OECD countries. While the average age of mothers at birth of their children continued to increase over the entire period, these years have been marked by an initial catching-up of total fertility rates after marked declines in previous decades. Furthermore, after peaking in 2008, total fertility rates declined substantially, fueling concerns about demographic, economic and fiscal implications. Using panel data models and building on prior work, this paper links these changes in fertility outcomes to changes in the labour market position of men and women as well as with changes in family policies, such as parental leaves and early childhood education and care. This paper provides insights into the complex dynamics between family policies, employment and fertility, shedding light on the factors influencing overall population dynamics in OECD countries.