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In this article we develop a simple and stylised analytical framework, which is both tractable and feasible to estimate, capturing several key dimensions of the sovereign debt crisis in Europe. We use it to examine if and how a combination of fiscal consolidation, structural reform and financial backstops can help countries, notably the southern euro-area countries, to escape from the debt trap. Our analysis confirms that the loss of fiscal policy space in countries trapped in bad dynamics inevitably requires that fiscal action be directed towards consolidation despite some output loss in the short run. In particular, reducing debt levels breeds stronger growth and results in lower sovereign risk premia. We identify also a very important role for structural reform to help countries escape from bad dynamics. Last but not least, we find that financial backstops are helpful, but only to “buy time”. This additional time must be used productively, for fiscal consolidation and structural reforms to bear fruit as well as to make progress with institutional reforms of the European monetary union.
- Macro-based effective tax rate (ETR) measures do not provide information on the level or distribution of marginal effective tax rates thought to influence household behaviour. They also do not capture differences in average ETRs facing different population sub-groups. I use EUROMOD, an EUwide tax-benefit model, to derive distributions of average and marginal ETR measures for fourteen countries. Results for each country show how many and which types of individuals face different ETR levels. I consider effective tax burdens on labour income as well as the marginal tax rates faced by working men and women. Results are broken down to isolate the influence of income taxes, social contributions and various types of social benefits ...
Over the past 15 years, tax reforms have profoundly changed the shape of OECD tax systems and rekindled interest in measuring effective tax burdens. Indeed, in order to understand past reforms or to evaluate the tax policies of particular countries, it is necessary to go beyond statutory rates since these sometimes bear little relation to rates actually paid. This paper updates and extends the Mendoza et al. estimates of average effective tax rates (AETRs) and presents new estimates based on modifications to the methodology to make some of the underlying assumptions more realistic. In particular, the assumption that all income from self-employment is capital income is dropped in favour of assuming that the self-employed earn both labour and capital income. This change raises estimates of the AETR on capital and reduces the estimated AETR on labour but does not alter the trends observed in the updated Mendoza et al. estimates. Both sets of estimates show that, on average, the ...
As far as we know, there is no study that identifies databases relating to the destination of doctorate recipients, including at international level. Young scientists unquestionably play an important role in research and innovation. Consequently, it is necessary to develop statistical sources to find out about the destinations of doctorate recipents. Such information is extremely valuable to the authorities for framing research and innovation policies.
This study has two objectives: first, to review existing statistical sources in the OECD countries, and to discuss their comparability. All told, 21 countries replied to the questionnaire on the existence of such databases, representing 25 data sources available for analysis. The analysis focused on the main aspects of the labour market for young researchers: the existence of queues for academic posts with, correlatively, post-doctoral training, relations between public research systems and industrial ...
This study focuses on the risk of automation and its interaction with training and the use of skills at work. Building on the expert assessment carried out by Carl Frey and Michael Osborne in 2013, the paper estimates the risk of automation for individual jobs based on the Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC). The analysis improves on other international estimates of the individual risk of automation by using a more disaggregated occupational classification and identifying the same automation bottlenecks emerging from the experts’ discussion. Hence, it more closely aligns to the initial assessment of the potential automation deriving from the development of Machine Learning. Furthermore, this study investigates the same methodology using national data from Germany and United Kingdom, providing insights into the robustness of the results.
The risk of automation is estimated for the 32 OECD countries that have participated in the Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC) so far. Beyond the share of jobs likely to be significantly disrupted by automation of production and services, the accent is put on characteristics of these jobs and the characteristics of the workers who hold them. The risk is also assessed against the use of ICT at work and the role of training in helping workers transit to new career opportunities.
The possible consequences of the advent of fully automated vehicles (AVs) for personal transport are assessed. A shared-user model is considered preferable to an owner-user model; public-sector intervention is considered necessary to secure the successful integration of AVs with mass transit. Interurban expressways are found to offer a better opportunity than urban roads of capturing the vehicles' potential traffic and safety benefits. AVs' performance in a mixed-fleet scenario is highly dependent on segregation from other road users, but segregation poses significant challenges.
The governance of a range of themes (such as demand management and security) is considered. In each case, challenges to achieving a socially desirable outcome are identified. Both laissez-faire and more interventionist styles of governance with respect to AVs present problems but laissez faire may carry greater risk. Decisions on governance should be based on meaningful dialogue with those who stand to be affected.
This paper reiterates the basic principles and rationale for valuing travel time savings. It explains the type of impacts that the valuation of travel time savings intends to capture and discusses whether and how those fundamental principles continue to hold with automation and increased possibility of productive time use while travelling. The paper also discusses implications for traffic management and urban form that follow from increased in-vehicle productivity.
Routine-biased technological change has emerged as a leading explanation for the differential wage growth of routine occupations, such as manufacturers or office clerks, relative to less routine occupations. Less clear, however, is how the effects of technological advancement on occupational wage trends vary across political-institutional context. This paper investigates the extent to which collective bargaining agreements and union coverage shape the relative wage growth of automatable occupations. Using data from the Luxembourg Income Study and the United States Current Population Survey, I measure the ‘routine task intensity’ of occupations across 15 OECD Member States and the 50 United States from the 1980s onward. Findings suggest that bargaining coverage is more consequential for the wage growth of high routine occupations relative to less routine occupations, and that high routine occupations lose coverage at a faster rate when bargaining coverage at the national level declines. As a result, declines in bargaining coverage within a country are associated with declining relative wage growth for automatable occupations. Estimates suggest that had union coverage in the United States not declined from 1984 levels, the earnings of high routine occupations might have grown at the same rate as low pay occupations between 1984 and 2015, rather than experiencing a relative wage decline. However, the findings also suggest that gains in the relative wage growth may increasingly come at the cost of reduced employment shares of automatable occupations.
Building on the automatic fiscal stabilisers literature, this paper assesses how automatic stabilisers have evolved over the past two decades by analysing changes in the personal income tax and social benefit systems. In three-quarters of the 35 OECD countries analysed, indicators of the strength of automatic stabilisers (aggregate elasticities of household income after tax with respect to the cycle and aggregate net replacement rates) changed little or moderately over the past two decades, suggesting broadly stable automatic stabilisers of household disposable income. The paper discusses pros and cons of several policy options to strengthen automatic stabilisers in the current environment. The effectiveness and possible side effects, particularly related to disincentives to work, vary across policy options. Consequently, policy reform proposals should be carefully assessed in a country-specific context and take into account other important policy objectives of tax and benefit systems.
It is often claimed that tax and welfare reforms that aim at enhancing efficiency may come at the cost of cyclical stabilisation. Reducing the generosity of welfare systems and lowering taxes may boost efficiency and output, and improve market adjustment to shocks. But, by reducing the size of automatic stabilisers, it may also imply less cyclical smoothing. This would be unwelcome in EMU given the loss of national monetary autonomy and the well-known pitfalls of active fiscal management. This paper argues that the alleged trade-off between efficiency/flexibility and stabilisation may not exist. We show that, if the initial level of the tax burden is high, reducing it may lead to higher output stabilisation in the event of a supply shock and higher inflation stabilisation in the event of a demand shock. The threshold level of taxation depends on the preferences of the central bank over inflation and output. Econometric and numerical simulations show that European countries — ...
Austria’s transition to a digital economy and society is slower than in other high-income small open European economies. The rate and pace of utilisation of eight main ICT applications shows that Austrian firms follow peer country counterparts with a gap, which has widened in most areas in recent years. Two dynamics drive digital transitions and Austria has room for progress in both of them. First, the potential for digitalisation in all firms, and especially in the smaller ones (where gaps are largest) should be freed-up by upgrading the full range of ICT-generic, ICT-specific and ICT-complementary skills. Second, Austria needs to make its business environment more conducive to firm entry and exit. The rate of entry of new firms and their growth are crucial for the diffusion of new business models and ICT innovations but fall behind peer countries. The adoption of ICT innovations by households also follows a staggered path: young and highly educated Austrians adopt ICT applications in similar ways to their counterparts in peer countries, while middle and older age cohorts display noticeable gaps. This calls for policies to help lagging groups become more acquainted with innovations. A whole-of-government approach, including large-scale utilisation of e-government applications in enterprises and households, should help to embrace change and facilitate the flourishing of innovative businesses, work practices and lifestyles throughout Austria.
This Working Paper relates to the 2017 OECD Economic Survey of Austria (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-austria.htm)
Both legislative decisions were finally taken unanimously. This article describes the respective change management and gives an overview of the main Austrian reform elements.