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Mobility has been central to economic development and social progress in the modern era. There is emerging evidence, however, that personal daily travel has recently ceased to grow in developed economies. The historic increase in mobility served to enlarge access to desired destinations and allowed more choice of jobs, homes, shops schools etc within acceptable travel times. Access and choice increase in proportion to the square of the speed, whereas choice of any given kind of destination is characterised by declining marginal utility. Accordingly, saturation of daily travel demand is to be expected and is a likely explanation for the observed cessation of per capita growth of personal travel.
Ce document passe en revue les principaux indicateurs mensuels pouvant aider á prévoir le commerce mondial et compare différents types de modèles de prévision utilisant ces indicateurs. En particulier, il développe des modèles á facteurs dynamiques (DFM) qui ont l'avantage de permettre l’utilisation de plus de séries que les modèles d’étalonnage et donc d’inclure des indicateurs mensuels au niveau national et mondial tels que les indicateurs financiers, de transport et d’expédition, d’approvisionnement et de carnets de commandes ou encore et de technologie de l’information. La comparaison de la performance de prévision des DFM avec des modèles d’étalonnage plus traditionnels ou des modèles autoregressifs montre que l'approche en facteurs dynamiques semble plus performante, surtout quand un vaste ensemble d'indicateurs est utilisé ; les gains marginaux en ajoutant des indicateurs semblent toutefois diminuer après un certain stade.
The external accident cost of road use is a function of the marginal relationship between road use and accidents, as expressed, for instance, by the elasticity. This elasticity is, however, not necessarily constant, but may be assumed to depend on the traffic volume as seen in relation to road capacity. Dense or congested traffic may force speed levels down, decreasing the risk of accidents or at least the average loss incurred given that an accident takes place. Relying on a large econometric accident model based on monthly cross-section/time-series data for all provinces of Norway, we derive non-linear empirical functions describing the relationship between road use and accidents and discuss their implications in terms of accident costs and externalities. The analysis reveals that there is probably a large accident externality generated by heavy vehicle road use, but that the marginal external accident cost of private car use is quite small, perhaps even negative. To the extent that it is positive, it is so in large part on account of public and private insurance. Contrary to what is frequently believed and maintained, auto insurance does not serve to internalise the cost of accidents. In fact, its primary purpose and effect is exactly the opposite. The adverse incentives created by insurance could, however, be mitigated by certain innovative approaches to ratemaking. Such schemes would ideally involve more decision variables than just the decision to drive. Incentives could, in principle, be attached to speeding, route choice, vehicle choice, safety equipment, or time of day/week/year.
This report provides a summary of the literature on the relationship between trade and informality in developing countries, with an emphasis on the BRIICS. While main conclusions of the ILO and WTO (2009) literature review are highlighted, the report focuses on additional and more recent literature. The report investigates four key issues in the literature on trade and informal labour markets: (1) theoretical predictions for trade and informality; (2) how trade liberalisation affects informal labour markets; (3) how trade flows affect the informal economy; and (4) what implications informality has for trade and growth. The main conclusion from this review is that empirical evidence on the relationship between trade and informality is complex and context-specific. Several of the empirical analyses reviewed in this report suggest that this variation is due to country-specific characteristics (in particular, labour market rigidity, capital mobility, level of economic development and heterogeneity of the informal workforce). Variation can also be partly explained by the fact that different methodologies are used and different measures of informality are employed across studies.

Europe has been beset by an interrelated banking crisis and sovereign debt crisis. Bond spreads faced by Greece and Ireland, and to a lesser extent Portugal followed by Spain, have increased. This paper explores these issues from the perspective of financial markets, focusing mainly on the four countries in the frontline of these pressures: Greece and Portugal, on the one hand, where the problems are primarily fiscal in nature; and Ireland and Spain, on the other, where banking problems related to the property boom and bust have been the key moving part. The paper first examines the probabilities of default implicit in observable market spreads and considers these calculations against sovereign debt dynamics. It then explores the implications of the interaction between bank losses and fiscal deficits on the one hand, and the feedback that any debt haircuts anticipated by markets could have on bank solvency. The study finds that market-implied sovereign default probabilities do in fact discriminate quite clearly between countries based on five criteria that affect the probability of debt restructuring. The discussion highlights some implications for banking system balance sheets of expected losses and shows the potential impact on them of sovereign restructuring implicit in market analysis. While the paper does not make any recommendations for policy action, it does explore a range of policy options and the implications each might have for the financial markets. JEL Classification: G01, G12, G15, G18, G21, H06, H60, H62, H63, H68 Keywords: financial crisis, sovereign risks, public deficits and debt, bond markets, banks.

Les méthodes de masquage utilisées pour la diffusion sécurisée des micros données consistent principalement en deux exercices simultanés : la perturbation des valeurs d’origines des données utilisées et la préservation d’un ensemble prédéfini de leurs propriétés statistiques. Pour les variables continues, les méthodes disponibles reposent essentiellement sur l'ajout de bruit aux valeurs d'origine, en utilisant des procédures aux degrés de complexité variant selon l'étendue de l’information que l'on cherche à préserver. Cependant, une caractéristique commune à l’ensemble de ces méthodes est l’utilisation centrale qui est faite de la loi normale, en supposant les données d'origines et/ou les perturbations distribuées selon ce schéma. Cela reste une hypothèse très restrictive dans le sens ou la validité empirique de cette dernière n’est que très rarement vérifiée: la plupart des distributions de revenus observées sont par exemple fortement positivement asymétrique. Cette caractéristique demeure d’ailleurs essentielle et cruciale pour l’analyse économique, et se doit donc d’être préservé. Partant de ce constat, cet article présente une méthodologie simple de masquage multiplicatif préservant l'asymétrie des données d'origine, ce tout en proposant un niveau suffisant de contrôle des risques de divulgation. Cette méthode est illustré au moyen d‘exemples numériques tendant à démontrer l’intérêt de la procédure utilisée à la diffusion d'un large éventail de micro données, y compris celles fondées sur la base de registre administratifs.

New restrictions on short-selling sovereign debt need to be supported by concrete evidence that links systematically unrestricted short-selling activities to fraud, abuse or market manipulation. OECD debt managers noted that there is plenty of empirical evidence on the benefits of short selling, including more liquidity, pricing efficiency and better allocated risk. However, solid evidence in the form of empirical data on market instability unambiguously caused by unrestricted short-selling activities (to be counted as ‘costs’) seems to be lacking. Debt managers also noted that the reporting requirements will be costly from a purely administrative point of view. A ban on uncovered short selling transactions of sovereign debt would make risk management more difficult and expensive, with detrimental effects on market efficiency, liquidity and funding costs for sovereigns. Moreover, it is unlikely that such bans would have a stabilising effect in government securities markets during a crisis. Rather than containing the crisis, a ban on short selling of government debt is likely to worsen the situation. The paper concludes that OECD debt managers have a range of tested tools at their disposal for dealing with temporary or chronic dysfunctional measures in sovereign debt markets, ranging from ‘quantity measures’, such as openings, to ‘pricing measures’ such as dynamic fails charges. JEL Classification: E44, G01, G21, G28, E61, H21. Keywords: financial regulation, short-selling, restrictions on short-selling, debt management, risk management, sovereign debt.

As a result of the massive growth of higher education in Turkey, the most pressing priority for this sector today is to meet the new space requirements for an increasing number of students. Now a subject of public attention more than ever before, the second largest item of expenditure for universities is the construction of physical spaces. This article sets out the key trends and presents the findings of a questionnaire conducted in 2005.
Le Secrétariat de l’OCDE, à l’invitation du Groupe National d’Experts de AHELO, a mandaté l’association Tuning pour conduire un travail initial sur les résultats d’apprentissage qui seront utilisés dans le cadre d’évaluations valides et fiables d’étudiants provenant de divers établissements et de différents pays. Les deux disciplines sélectionnées pour l’étude de faisabilité AHELO sont l’ingénierie et l’économie.

Suivant l’approche TUNING, des universitaires provenant de divers pays et régions du monde, se sont mis d’accord sur une définition des résultats attendus d’étudiants de 1er cycle universitaire dans les deux disciplines. Ce document de travail présente le produit de leur réflexion s’agissant de l’ingénierie.

Tout en tenant compte des cycles d’études et des professions, les membres du groupe de travail Ingénierie Tuning-AHELO ont défini les résultats d’apprentissage pour l’ensemble des programmes d’ingénierie, et de ceux plus spécifiques à trois branches de l’ingénierie, soient l’ingénierie mécanique, l’ingénierie électrique et l’ingénierie civile.

Le document présente également le champ couvert par l’ingénierie, les types de diplômes et de métiers possibles pour le premier et le second cycle. Il reflète par ailleurs les débats sur le rôle des résultats d’apprentissage et réunit les approches ayant servi à les définir. Un résumé des travaux conduits précédemment sur les résultats d’apprentissage en ingénierie est inclus.

Cette étude évalue certaines conséquences des politiques d’atténuation du changement climatique sur le bien-être économique. Suivant l’approche de Becker, Philipson et Soares (2005), un indice de progrès économique est proposé, combinant le coût monétaire des politiques d’abattement d’émissions de gaz à effet de serre ainsi que les bénéfices pour la santé de la réduction de la pollution de l’air qui en découle. Le prix implicite de la pollution est calculé indirectement à travers son impact sur l’espérance de vie. La prise en compte des bénéfices sur la santé des politiques d’atténuation réduit le coût monétaire de la lutte contre le changement climatique baisse de manière significative en Chine et en Inde, ainsi que dans le cas de pays à forte production d’énergie fossile (l’Australie, le Canada et les Etats-Unis).

The complex effects of the global financial crisis (GFC) have affected countries differently. The concept of stimulus packages to enable economies to withstand its full effects was widespread, as were decisions by several countries to invest in higher education as a means of stimulating the economy while placing workforce development and research on a firmer footing. While the GFC increased awareness of the need to invest in the knowledge economy, governments adopted approaches reflecting their different fundamental priorities. Arguably Ireland was left with little leeway, whereas Australia’s far better economic position might have provided an opportunity to invest in higher education through its stimulus packages. This paper examines the policy choices that Australian and Irish governments made both before, and in response to, the GFC to assess how these decisions have prepared higher education for the future.

2010 was a landmark year for the Development Assistance Committee (DAC) in many ways. It marked 50 years since the DAC was founded, it was the year Eckhard Deutscher handed over the Chair to Brian Atwood, and it marked the coming of age of the Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness. In this article, the out-going DAC Chair reflects on the lessons of the past and concludes that despite the many changes and new challenges, development co-operation is as relevant today as ever. He sets three key priorities for the DAC and its members as they embark on the next 50 years. These are to stay true to the commitments made to increase aid volumes, continue to be guided by the principles of effective aid in an increasingly complex context, and reach out to all providers of development co-operation in the effort to create an effective global development partnership.

Traffic accidents are a human tragedy that kills 1.2 million people worldwide annually (World Health Organization, 2004). The cost of traffic accidents are huge and recent estimates for US alone suggest the cost to be USD 433 billion in year 2000 or 4.3 percentage of GDP (Parry et al, 2007). A reduction of this cost can be done in two ways, either by reducing the number of accidents or by mitigating the consequences of the existing accidents. Insurance systems can contribute to both.
The imputation of the labour income of the self-employed typically relies upon the assumption that individuals of this group earn the same average hourly compensation as employees, either at the total economy or industry level. While this assumption is convenient in that it relies upon readily available information on the composition of the labour force and on the compensation of employees, it nevertheless remains somewhat simplistic and thus questionable in its validity. This shortcoming is addressed here by investigating a more refined method to impute the labour income of the self-employed in the United States. Imputations are based on the assumption that the labour income of the self-employed equals the average earnings of employees of the same sex and within the same age group, working in the same industry and having the same level of education. The proposed estimation of the labour income of the self-employed is followed by an analysis of how adjusted total labour income might impact the value of the labour share of output. Results for the United States show that applying this alternative methodology leads to a 2.5 percentage point rise in labour shares of output at the total economy level, led by larger increases of this indicator in sectors such as agriculture and hunting as well as professional, business and other service industries. The time profile in recent years, i.e. 2003-2009, of the labour share of output remains nevertheless unchanged when applying the proposed adjustment methodology.
Les découvertes de gaz naturel en mer ont affranchi Israël d’une totale dépendance à l’égard des importations d’énergies primaires et elles permettent au pays de disposer d’une palette énergétique moins polluante. De plus, de nouvelles capacités de production vont bientôt devenir opérationnelles et il y a des perspectives raisonnables de nouvelles découvertes de gaz commercialement viables, et peut-être aussi de pétrole. Les autorités ont revu le système des royalties et taxes, même si la façon d’utiliser au mieux les recettes recueillies reste sujet à débat. Les préoccupations liées à la concurrence dans le secteur gazier se sont accentuées après les perturbations des importations transitant par le gazoduc avec l’Égypte, qui ont renforcé la position sur le marché du consortium pilote développant les gisements offshore. Le problème de concurrence dans le secteur de l’électricité dure depuis longtemps en raison de la lenteur de la réforme en faveur de l’abandon de la position monopolistique de l’opérateur appartenant à l’État. Comme ailleurs, la consommation d’énergie a d’importants effets secondaires sur l’environnement. Un plan d’ensemble de réduction des émissions de gaz à effet de serre a été élaboré récemment, qui s’appuie principalement sur des mesures d’efficacité énergétique et l’augmentation de la part d’électricité produite à partir d’énergies renouvelables. Ce Document de travail se rapporte à l’Étude économique de l’OCDE d’Israël 2011 (www.oecd.org/eco/etudes/Israël).
Le présent document expose une méthode d?ajustement des soldes budgétaires structurels en fonction des cycles de prix des actifs et donne des estimations des soldes budgétaires structurels corrigés des fluctuations conjoncturelles des prix des logements et des prix des actions pour les pays de l?OCDE. L?indicateur traditionnel des soldes budgétaires corrigés des influences conjoncturelles, qui sert à mesurer les soldes structurels ou sous-jacents, ne s?ajuste pas en fonction des effets des fluctuations conjoncturelles des prix des actifs. Il en résulte que, par défaut, les effets des prix des actifs sur les recettes sont pris en compte dans la mesure du budget structurel. Cela peut induire en erreur les décideurs publics en cas de variations temporaires des prix des actifs, conduisant à une action budgétaire pro-cyclique, surtout lorsque des mesures d?allégement d?impôt ou d?augmentation de dépenses sont prises en présence d?une abondance inattendue de recettes. Ce document présente tout d?abord des estimations économétriques des élasticités des recettes fiscales mesurant la réaction des principales catégories d?impôt aux variations des prix des logements et des prix des actions. Ces élasticités sont ensuite utilisées pour ajuster les recettes en fonction des effets des cycles de prix des actifs mesurés en termes d?écarts par rapport aux prix « fondamentaux » ou lissés. Dans la mesure où les fluctuations des prix des actifs sont indépendantes du cycle de la production, ou sans lien avec ce dernier, l?ajustement peut être ajouté au solde structurel classique afin d?obtenir un solde structurel corrigé des fluctuations des prix des actifs. L?analyse est rétrospective, mais l?on s?est attaché tout particulièrement à mieux identifier les fluctuations conjoncturelles des recettes au fur et à mesure de leur survenue, ou de leur incorporation dans les projections budgétaires, et à parvenir à reconnaître l?origine de recettes « surprenantes ».
  • 01 sept. 2011
  • David Elzinga, Lew Fulton, Steve Heinen, Oscar Wasilik
  • Pages : 64
  • dans IEA Energy Papers
Increased focus has been placed on the issues of energy access and energy poverty over the last number of years, most notably indicated by the United Nations (UN) declaring 2012 as the “International Year of Sustainable Energy for All”. Although attention in these topics has increased, incorrect assumptions and misunderstandings still arise in both the literature and dialogues. Access to energy does not only include electricity, does not only include cook stoves, but must include access to all types of energy that form the overall energy system. This paper chooses to examine this energy system using a typology that breaks it into 3 primary energy subsystems: heat energy, electricity and transportation. Describing the global energy system using these three subsystems provides a way to articulate the differences and similarities for each system’s required investments needs by the private and public sectors.
Advertising of procurement opportunities and contract award results is a foundation stone of public procurement. Full and open advertising facilitates appropriate competition, develops markets and helps in the battle against corruption. SIGMA Brief 6 provides the reader with guidance on where and when notices for contracts subject to the European Union public procurement Directives must be advertised. It also provides information on other methods of keeping the market informed. It gives guidance on the correction of contract notices which contain incorrect information, on how to complete and dispatch contract notices electronically, and special rules for Utilities.

This paper shows that negative comovements between major macroeconomic variables at business-cycle frequencies are commonly observed, but that standard Real Business Cycle (RBC) theory fails to predict this feature of the data. We show that allowing for “anticipation effects” in response to “news shocks” enables standard RBC models to predict both the observed patterns of negative comovement and overall positive correlations. Anticipation also improves magnification of shocks in the model without harming predictions for the other second moments central to RBC studies. Anticipation effects improve on standard RBC frameworks by offering an empirically plausible explanation for the nontrivial fraction of time that aggregate variables are observed to comove negatively.

I examine the effect of labour market policies and institutions on the transmission of macroeconomic shocks to the labour market, using both aggregate and industry-level annual data for 23 OECD countries, 23 business-sector industries and up to 29 years. I find that high and progressive labour taxes and generous unemployment benefits amplify labour income fluctuations. By contrast, statutory minimum wages reduce the difference in the sensitivity of wages to aggregate shocks between low-wage and high-wage industries. Dismissal regulations are found to mitigate the impact of shocks on both earnings and employment. Moreover, this mitigation effect is greater in industries where firms have a greater propensity to make staffing changes through dismissals. Stringent dismissal regulations also appear to reduce the counter-cyclicality of the earnings dispersion between high and low-educated labour.

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