Browse by: "2013"

A new global energy landscape is emerging, resetting long-held expectations for our energy future. Incorporating these recent developments and world-class analysis, World Energy Outlook 2013 presents a full update of energy projections through to 2035 and insights into what they mean for energy security, climate change, economic development and universal access to modern energy services. Oil, coal, natural gas, renewables and nuclear power are all covered, along with an update on developments in subsidies to fossil fuels and renewable energy.

This year World Energy Outlook also gives a special focus to topical energy sector issues:

-Redrawing the energy-climate map: the short-term measures that could keep the 2°C target within reach, and the extent to which low-carbon development could leave fossil-fuel investments stranded. Special report to be released 10 June.

-Energy in Brazil: how a vast and diverse resource base – from renewables to new offshore discoveries – can meet the growing needs of the Brazilian economy and open up new export markets.

-Oil supply, demand and trade: a fresh look at the economics and decline rates of different types of oil production around the world, the prospects for light tight oil inside and outside North America, along with new analysis of oil products and the refining sector.

-The implications for economic competitiveness of the changing energy map: what the major disparities in regional energy prices might mean for major energy-intensive industries and the broader impact on economic growth and household purchasing power.

-The global spread of unconventional gas supply, including the uptake of the IEA “Golden Rules” to address public concerns about the associated environmental and social impacts.

-Energy trends in Southeast Asia, a region that is exerting a growing influence in the global energy system. Special report to be released 23 September.

The World Energy Outlook is recognised as the most authoritative source of strategic analysis of global energy markets. It is regularly used as input to the development of government policies and business strategies and raises public awareness of the key energy and environmental challenges the world is facing.

The IEA Wind Power Technology Roadmap 2013 Edition recognises the very significant progress made since the first edition was published in 2009. The technology continues to improve rapidly, and costs of generation from land-based wind installations continue to fall. Wind power is now being deployed in countries with good resources without any dedicated financial incentives.

The 2013 Edition targets an increased share (15% to 18%) of global electricity to be provided by wind power in 2050, compared to 12% in the original roadmap of 2009. However, increasing levels of low-cost wind still require predictable, supportive regulatory environments and appropriate market designs. The challenges of integrating higher levels of variable wind power into the grid need to be addressed. For offshore wind, much remains to be done to develop appropriate large-scale systems and to reduce costs.

The 2013 Wind Power Roadmap also provides updated analysis on the barriers that exist for the technology and suggests ways to address them, including legal and regulatory recommendations.

Buildings are the largest energy consuming sector in the world, and account for over one-third of total final energy consumption and an equally important source of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Achieving significant energy and emissions reduction in the buildings sector is a challenging but achievable policy goal.

Transition to Sustainable Buildings presents detailed scenarios and strategies to 2050, and demonstrates how to reach deep energy and emissions reduction through a combination of best available technologies and intelligent public policy. This IEA study is an indispensible guide for decision makers, providing informative insights on:

-Cost-effective options, key technologies and opportunities in the buildings sector;
-Solutions for reducing electricity demand growth and flattening peak demand;
-Effective energy efficiency policies and lessons learned from different countries;
-Future trends and priorities for ASEAN, Brazil, China, the European Union, India, Mexico, Russia, South Africa and the United States;
-Implementing a systems approach using innovative products in a cost effective manner; and
-Pursuing whole-building (e.g. zero energy buildings) and advanced-component policies to initiate a fundamental shift in the way energy is consumed.

The availability of oil and gas for future generations continues to provoke international debate. In 2005, the first edition of Resources to Reserves found that the known hydrocarbon resources were sufficient to sustain likely growth for the foreseeable future. Yet the book also predicted that developing oil and gas resources – and bringing them to market – would become more technically demanding.

Resources to Reserves 2013 – a comprehensive update to the 2005 edition – confirms these earlier findings and investigates whether oil and gas resources can be produced at a reasonable cost and in a timely manner, while also protecting environmentally sensitive areas. Released amid a boom in shale gas and oil development in North America that is transforming the global energy landscape, the book surveys the cutting-edge technologies needed to find, produce and bring these reserves to the market, and it reviews the challenges on greenhouse gas emissions associated with fossil fuel production. With renewed interest in coal as a potential source of liquid and gaseous fuels, it also looks at technology advances for this fossil fuel.

The combined effects of the economic crisis and the recent popular uprisings in parts of the Middle East and North Africa have brought social and economic challenges back to the centre of attention of policy makers. For governments searching to create jobs, to satisfy the growing energy demand of their populations and to diversify their economies, the appeal of renewable energies is strong. However, the right policy framework and support need to be put in place if the region wants to attract private investment in the sector and reap the benefits of its favourable resource endowment, especially as regards solar and wind energy.

This report makes the case for a stronger deployment of renewables in the Middle East and North Africa and identifies the appropriate support policies required to stimulate the necessary private investment. An assessment of existing policy frameworks in the region and examples from OECD good practice are used as pointers to help guide policy makers in their choices.  

The analysis contained in this report suggests that support policies targeting the life cycle of renewable energy projects such as feed-in tariffs and power purchase agreements are more effective and less distortive than policies subsidising the initial investment, such as cost reductions. The optimal incentive scheme provides investors with stability through a guaranteed but declining minimum return while imposing enough market risk to foster technological progress.

Meeting the growing demand for energy, and electricity in particular, while addressing the need to curb greenhouse gas emissions and to ensure security of energy supply, is one of the most difficult challenges facing the world’s economies. No single technology can respond to this challenge, and the solution which policy-makers are seeking lies in the diversification of energy sources.

Although nuclear energy currently provides over 20% of electricity in the OECD area and does not emit any carbon dioxide during production, it continues to be seen by many as a controversial technology. Public concern remains over its safety and the management of radioactive waste, and financing such a capital-intensive technology is a complex issue. The role that nuclear power will play in the future depends on the answers to these questions, several of which are provided in this up-to-date review of the status of nuclear energy, as well as on the outcome of research and development on the nuclear fuel cycle and reactor technologies.

The global oil market faces unprecedented challenges and opportunities.  One thing seems clear: The oil market as we know it today will have transformed in five years. The IEA’s 2013 Medium-Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR) sketches out the likely changes to 2018 and what they mean for the world. Its forecasts are based on hard facts and the most likely assumptions: current expectations of economic growth, known government policies likely to affect oil supply and demand, regulatory changes that may impact oil market participation and oil price formation, oil field decline trends, and confirmed investments in the upstream, midstream and downstream.

Last year’s MTOMR challenged conventional wisdom with its analysis of the huge potential unlocked by the North American supply revolution and the Iraqi resurgence. Building on this foundation, the 2013 MTOMR turns to the formidable challenges facing the development of these new resources, while further exploring the transformation it brings to all aspects of the market. The impact of political turmoil in the Middle East and Africa is also assessed.

On the demand front, the Report examines the continuing redistribution of demand by region, fuel-on-fuel competition between oil and natural gas, the short-term prospects for efficiency gains, and the shifting composition of the demand barrel. The MTOMR also pays close attention to the entire supply chain, including changes in refining capacity, the emergence of refining ‘mega-hubs,’ and the changing role of trading houses and midstream companies in a rapidly evolving product distribution system – and how that may affect product availability and prices.

The MTOMR’s goal is not only to get the numbers right but also to spot emerging shifts that may temporarily or durably affect the market. That makes it a unique tool for anyone engaged in policy or investment decision-making in the energy sphere, and those more broadly interested in the oil market and the global economy.

The Medium-Term Coal Market Report-2013 provides IEA forecasts on coal markets for the coming five years as well as an in-depth analysis of recent developments in global coal demand, supply and trade. This third annual report shows that while coal continues to be a growing source of primary energy worldwide, its future is increasingly tied to developments in non-OECD countries, led by China.

Coal is both the leading fuel source behind the growth of non-OECD countries and the leading source of power generation in OECD countries. Yet the current low prices for coal add a new challenge to the sector, which is facing uncertainty due to increasing environmental legislation and competition from other fuels, like US shale gas or European renewables.

This report examines, among other things, how coal producers will be affected by such low prices, whether the current low prices will boost the fuel’s consumption, if other developing countries will follow in China’s footsteps by increasingly relying on coal to fuel economic growth, and, above all, whether the strong growth of coal in China will continue between now and 2018.

 

This Inventory is concerned with direct budgetary transfers and tax expenditures that relate to fossil fuels, regardless of their impact or of the purpose for which the measures were first put in place. It has been undertaken as an exercise in transparency, and to inform the international dialogue on fossil-fuel subsidy reform. For each of the 34 OECD countries covered, the Inventory provides a succinct summary of its energy economy, and of the budgetary and tax-related measures provided at the central-government level (and, in the case of federal countries, for selected sub-national units of government) relating to fossil-fuel production or consumption. The transfers associated with these measures are reported for recent years using the Producer Support Estimate (PSE) and Consumer Support Estimate (CSE) as organising frameworks. These frameworks have already been used extensively by the OECD, most notably in respect of agriculture. The Inventory covers a wide range of measures that provide a benefit or preference for a particular activity or a particular product, either in absolute terms or relative to other activities or products, against a specified baseline. Many measures listed in this inventory are relative preferences within a particular country’s tax system rather than absolute support that can be readily compared across countries, and for that reason no national totals are provided.

This volume contains data on energy supply and consumption in original units for coal, oil, gas, electricity, heat, renewables and waste.  Complete data are available for 2010 and 2011 and supply estimates are available for the most recent year (i.e. 2012). Historical tables summarise data on production, trade and final consumption.  The book also includes definitions of products and flows and explanatory notes on the individual country data.

In the 2013 edition of Energy Balances of OECD Countries, the sister volume of this publication, the data are presented as comprehensive energy balances expressed in million tonnes of oil equivalent.

Sweden has made progress in recent years towards a more secure, sustainable energy future. The Scandinavian nation already has an almost carbon-free electricity supply and has phased out oil use in residential and power sectors. It is increasingly integrated within the Nordic and Baltic electricity markets, and its joint renewable electricity certificate market with Norway offers a unique model for other countries.

Now Sweden must take concrete steps to realise its vision of a fossil-fuel-independent vehicle fleet by 2030 and no net greenhouse-gas emissions by 2050. Although Sweden has decided to allow the replacement of its existing nuclear reactors, further emission reductions will come at a higher cost and require technology change. This means Sweden will need to carefully evaluate the most cost-effective pathways for its transition to a low-carbon economy.

Sweden has a high energy-intensity level, which requires greater energy efficiency in industry, buildings, heat and transport.  A decarbonisation vision should be mapped out for each industry sector. Starting with transport, Sweden must specify how it will wean its vehicle fleet from fossil fuels by 2030.

Sweden’s industry lead in smart grids is an asset. Sweden should scale up investment in clean energy technologies. As all Nordic countries decarbonise, cost-effective regional solutions can control consumers’ costs. The large-scale deployment of renewable and energy technologies in a common Northern European energy market can drive decarbonisation without comprising competitiveness, security of supply and affordability.

This review analyses the energy-policy challenges currently facing Sweden, and provides studies and recommendations for each sector.