Medium-Term Oil Market Report

International Energy Agency

Frequency :
Annual
ISSN :
2310-4651 (online)
DOI :
10.1787/23104651
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The Medium-Term Oil Market Report provides IEA forecasts on oil markets for the coming five years as well as an in-depth analysis of recent developments in global oil demand, supply and trade.

 
Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2013

Latest Edition

Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2013

Market Trends and Projections to 2018 You do not have access to this content

International Energy Agency

Click to Access: 
    http://oecd.metastore.ingenta.com/content/6113141e.pdf
  • PDF
Author(s):
IEA
Publication Date :
14 May 2013
Pages :
150
ISBN :
9789264191709 (PDF)
DOI :
10.1787/9789264191709-en

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The global oil market faces unprecedented challenges and opportunities.  One thing seems clear: The oil market as we know it today will have transformed in five years. The IEA’s 2013 Medium-Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR) sketches out the likely changes to 2018 and what they mean for the world. Its forecasts are based on hard facts and the most likely assumptions: current expectations of economic growth, known government policies likely to affect oil supply and demand, regulatory changes that may impact oil market participation and oil price formation, oil field decline trends, and confirmed investments in the upstream, midstream and downstream.

Last year’s MTOMR challenged conventional wisdom with its analysis of the huge potential unlocked by the North American supply revolution and the Iraqi resurgence. Building on this foundation, the 2013 MTOMR turns to the formidable challenges facing the development of these new resources, while further exploring the transformation it brings to all aspects of the market. The impact of political turmoil in the Middle East and Africa is also assessed.

On the demand front, the Report examines the continuing redistribution of demand by region, fuel-on-fuel competition between oil and natural gas, the short-term prospects for efficiency gains, and the shifting composition of the demand barrel. The MTOMR also pays close attention to the entire supply chain, including changes in refining capacity, the emergence of refining ‘mega-hubs,’ and the changing role of trading houses and midstream companies in a rapidly evolving product distribution system – and how that may affect product availability and prices. 

The MTOMR’s goal is not only to get the numbers right but also to spot emerging shifts that may temporarily or durably affect the market. That makes it a unique tool for anyone engaged in policy or investment decision-making in the energy sphere, and those more broadly interested in the oil market and the global economy.

Table of Contents

 

FOREWORD
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
OVERVIEW
-Supply growth and the resurgent North American primacy
-Non-OECD economies take the lead in most other aspects of the market
-Beyond supply growth: the LTO paradigm
-Demand: beyond the BRICS
-Supply: spreading the benefits of technological breakthroughs
-OPEC: challenges ahead
-Global refining: rise of the export titans
-Trends in stocks and storage capacity
-The shifting oil trade map: non-OECD countries overtake OECD crude imports
-A note on prices
DEMAND
-Summary
-Overview
-OECD
-Non-OECD
-Underlying economic assumptions
-Transport sector
-Transport gas: dawn of a new age?
-Power generation sector
-Residential sector
-Petrochemical sector
-Top-10 consumers
-Africa: a new demand frontier?
SUPPLY
-Trends in global supply
-Non-OPEC Supply
-Revisions
-OECD Americas
-North Sea
-Latin America
-Colombian output in the medium term dependent on security, transport, technology
-Non-OECD Asia
-Former Soviet Union
-Middle East
-Africa
-OPEC crude oil capacity outlook
-OPEC spare capacity reassessed
-Middle East capacity ebbs and flows
-Iraqi production growth tempered by political and bureaucratic woes
-Security challenges for OPEC’s African producers
-Venezuela production capacity on course to edge higher
-OPEC gas liquids supply
-Biofuels
-Weaker short-term outlook impacts medium-term projections
-"Blend wall" clouds US medium-term outlook
REFINING
-Summary
-Refining investment: paradigm change
-Regional developments
-North America: a diversity of strategy
-Latin America: an end to structural deficit
-Europe: a temporary truce
-FSU: East-West arbitrage
-Africa: still lagging behind demand
-Middle East: major export refineries
-China: securing crude supply with more joint venture projects
-Other Asia: keeping pace with demand
-Asia Pacific: restructuring and consolidation
TRENDS IN GLOBAL OIL INVENTORIES
Summary
-Global overview
-OECD Americas
-The impact of surging domestic supplies on US stockholding
-OECD Europe
-OECD Asia Oceania
-Other Asia
-Recent and future developments in Chinese inventories
-Middle East
-Africa
-Former Soviet Union
-Latin America
CRUDE TRADE
-Summary
-Overview and methodology
-North America: surging domestic supply redraws the global oil trade map
-Railing crude in North America
-Regional trade: where will backed-out crudes find a home?
-How US condensate is changing the world
TABLES