Rwanda

The case study of Rwanda highlights that both trade and development assistance have played an important role in catapulting the country to the top of Africa’s growth charts. The case study shows that the government has developed a robust set of indicators that span the broad aid-for-trade agenda. While the monitoring and evaluation system is complex and has minor gaps, taken as a whole, it has produced effective implementation. The system is predicated upon a set of output and outcome indicators to be attained through enumerated (and often quantified) policies and actions that begin at the highest level of government and cascade down through the various ministries and agencies. Each level of government has its own outputs/outcomes and associated implementation plan. The government, working with donors, has also established a comprehensive Donor Performance Assessment Framework as part of its administration of official development assistance. Beyond this, the framework is intended to contribute to meeting Rwanda’s 2020 goal of raising incomes to the level where aid of any kind will no longer be necessary. All in all, the case study tends to corroborate the findings of Bruno Versailles (2012c), who concluded that “…Rwanda now boasts what is very close to ‘best practice’ in mutual accountability frameworks”. Nonetheless, this review points to a few ways in which the management of aid for trade might be improved, if at the margin.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth remained strong in 2012, largely driven by the service and industry sectors. Agriculture grew by a moderate 3.0% during the first three quarters of 2012 due to unfavourable weather conditions. The diversification of markets for tea and minerals, particularly coltan, boosted the export sector, which increased by 24.8% in 2012. Development assistance is key to the 2013 economic outlook. Assuming that aid, suspended by some development partners in 2012, resumes in 2013, GDP growth is projected to moderate to 7.1% in 2013. This projection takes into account other factors, including programmed fiscal consolidation, which prioritises public spending towards strategic investments, which, in turn, dampens aggregate demand, as well as a tight monetary policy that is a deterrant to the expansion of private sector credit. A protracted suspension of foreign assistance, however, could undermine Rwanda’s economic prospects including a further reduction in real GDP growth and reverse progress towards the MDGs.

En 2012, la croissance du produit intérieur brut (PIB) est restée vigoureuse, à 7.7 %, essentiellement tirée par les secteurs des services et de l’industrie. L’agriculture a affiché une croissance modérée de 3.0 % sur les trois premiers trimestres de 2012 en raison de conditions météorologiques peu favorables. La diversification des marchés pour le thé et les minéraux, en particulier le coltan, a stimulé le secteur des exportations, lequel a enregistré une progression de 24.8 % en 2012. L’aide au développement est cruciale pour les perspectives économiques de 2013. À supposer que l’aide, suspendue par certains partenaires au développement en 2012, reprenne en 2013, la croissance du PIB devrait se tasser à 7.1 % cette même année. Cette projection prend en compte d’autres facteurs, notamment l’assainissement budgétaire programmé, qui donne la priorité aux dépenses consacrées aux investissements stratégiques, qui, à leur tour, influencent la demande globale, mais aussi un durcissement de la politique monétaire, qui freine l’expansion du crédit au secteur privé. Toutefois, si elle se prolonge, la suspension de l’aide étrangère pourrait éroder les perspectives économiques du Rwanda, avec, en particulier, une réduction de la croissance du PIB et des reculs sur la voie des OMD.

Rwanda’s economy has remained on a strong growth path with real gross domestic product (GDP) growth increasing to 8.8% in 2011 from 7.6% in 2010 higher than the initial projection of 7.0%. Growth was driven in 2011 by good harvests thanks to the crop-intensification programme, leading to an 8.2% expansion in the agriculture sector, an increase in exports largely due to rising commodity prices and high domestic demand supported by expanding credit to the private sector. Industry reported the highest growth rate, 15.1%, owing to a rebound in mining and construction, which grew by 15.5% and 22.3% respectively. Expansion in government spending and recovery in tourism have also contributed to growth. Growth in services at 7.2% was lower than the 9.6% reported in 2010, owing to slower growth in transport and communications as well as in financial services.

L’économie du Rwanda est restée sur une trajectoire de croissance solide : le produit intérieur brut (PIB) en volume, qui avait augmenté de 7.6 % en 2010, a crû de 8.8 % en 2011, au-delà de la prévision initiale de 7.0 %. En 2011, la croissance a été tirée par les bonnes récoltes obtenues grâce au programme d’intensification des cultures, conduisant à une expansion de 8.2 % dans le secteur agricole ; par l’augmentation des recettes d’exportation largement due à la hausse des prix des produits de base ; et par l’expansion du crédit au secteur privé, qui a soutenu la forte demande nationale. L’industrie a enregistré le taux de croissance le plus élevé : 15.1 %, dû à la reprise du secteur minier et de la construction, avec des hausses respectives de 15.5 % et 22.3 %. L’expansion des dépenses publiques et la reprise du tourisme ont également contribué à la croissance. À 7.2 %, la progression du secteur des services a été plus faible que les 9.6 % enregistrés en 2010, en raison d’un ralentissement dans le domaine des transports et des communications, ainsi que dans le secteur des services financiers.

In 2010, the economy of Rwanda recovered from the sharp downturn it experienced in the previous year by growing at 7.4%. The outlook for 2011 and 2012 remains robust. The rebound is driven mainly by increased exports, expansion in the growth of services and construction sector. Inflation also has declined considerably in 2010 compared with 2009 when food prices increased by more than 20% in the wake of the global food crisis. The macroeconomic balance also improved in 2010 and is expected to remain stable in the mid-term.

Le produit intérieur brut (PIB) du Rwanda a progressé de 4.5 % en 2009 et il devrait afficher une hausse modérée, de 5.1 %, en 2010. La croissance impressionnante du pays ces six dernières années tient en grande partie à de bonnes performances agricoles. Cependant, l’État s’attache à diversifier l’économie dans le cadre d’une stratégie de long terme qui a pour objectif d'étayer une expansion durable. Avec 384 habitants/km2 en 2008, le Rwanda est le deuxième pays d’Afrique subsaharienne en ce qui concerne la densité de sa population, après Maurice.

In 2009 Rwanda’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 4.5% and is projected to recover moderately in 2010 to 5.1% (Figure 1). The impressive growth that the country has experienced over the last six years has largely been driven by the good performance of the agricultural sector. However, the government is making efforts to diversify the economy as a long-term strategy for sustaining longterm growth. In particular, Rwanda is the second most densely populated country in sub-Saharan Africa after Mauritius with a population density of 384 inhabitants per square kilometer in 2008. While practical steps have been taken to address environmental challenges stemming from population pressures, which threatened agricultural productivity, further productivity growth in agriculture is likely to require higher investment levels than has been the case before. In addition, 28% of Rwandans are food-insecure in spite of improvements in this field. The country also remains highly dependent on foreign aid, which accounted for more than 45% of the government budget in 2009.

The 2003 Constitution of Rwanda prohibits gender-based discrimination, but women in the country continue to face social inequalities. The 1992 Family Code improved the legal position of women in regard to marriage, divorce and child custody. In September 2008, Rwanda became the first country to have more female members of Parliament (56%) than male.

LA CROISSANCE DU PRODUIT INTÉRIEUR brut (PIB) en 2008 au Rwanda est estimée à un peu plus de 8.5 pour cent, soit une augmentation sensible par rapport au taux moyen de 7.5 pour cent enregistré durant la période 2005-07. De bonnes conditions climatiques, ayant favorisé la production agricole, expliquent pour une large part ce résultat supérieur aux attentes. Pour 2009, les prévisions tablent sur un taux de croissance moins rapide, de l’ordre de 6.6 pour cent. Ce repli résultera d’une combinaison de facteurs au nombre desquels figurent la baisse des exportations, la réduction des dépenses publiques et un ralentissement dans l’expansion de l’agriculture. Le repli devrait se prolonger en 2010 avec une croissance prévue à 5.7 pour cent.

GDP GROWTH IN 2008 WAS ESTIMATED at slightly above 8.5 per cent, significantly higher than the average rate of 7.5 per cent registered during the 2005-07 period. The higher than expected growth in 2008 was largely a result of good climatic conditions that impacted favourably on agricultural production. In 2009, the economy is forecast to register lower growth of about 6.6 per cent. The lower growth forecast is a result of a combination of factors, including among others, a fall in exports, reduced government expenditures and a slowdown in agricultural growth. The weakening of economic growth is projected to extend into 2010, when the economy is expected to grow by 5.7 per cent.

RWANDA HAS MADE CONSIDERABLE PROGRESS in recovering from the 1994 war, exhibiting impressive growth averaging about 8 per cent a year during the period 1996-2005. In 2007,GDP growth is estimated at 4.9 per cent, down from the 5.3 per cent registered in 2006. The slowdown was due to poor growing conditions which caused agricultural output to fall. Growth is expected to slow further to 4 per cent in 2008, but to accelerate to 5.6 per cent in 2009.