African Economic Outlook

OECD Development Centre

Frequency :
Annual
ISSN :
1999-1029 (online)
ISSN :
1995-3909 (print)
DOI :
10.1787/19991029
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This fact-filled annual reference book brings the reader the latest available economic information for most of the economies of Africa. Drawing on the expertise of both the African Development Bank and the OECD, it opens with an overview that examines the international environment, macroeconomic performance, progress towards attaining the Millennium Development Goals, and governance and political issues. The second part provides individual country reports for 30 countries. Each country report provides an assessment of recent economic performance, economic projections, an examination of structural issues, and a discussion of the political and social context. The statistical annex presents 24 tables comparing economic and social variables across all the countries of Africa.

Also available in: French
 
African Economic Outlook 2013

African Economic Outlook 2013

Structural Transformation and Natural Resources You do not have access to this content

OECD Development Centre

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Author(s):
OECD, AfDB, UNDP, ECA
Publication Date :
27 May 2013
Pages :
356
ISBN :
9789264200548 (PDF) ; 9789264200531 (print)
DOI :
10.1787/aeo-2013-en

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The African Economic Outlook is the only annual report that monitors in detail the economic performance of 53 individual countries on the continent, using a strictly comparable analytical framework.

The focus of the 2013 edition if structural transformation and natural resources in Africa. This edition draws lessons from Africa and elsewhere on how to accelerate structural change and amplify the positive force of natural resources. The report also features and overview of Africa's performance and prospects, country notes and a rich statistical annex.

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    Foreword, Editorial and Acknowledgements

    At the dawn of the new millennium the African Economic Outlook (AEO) was born out of the recognition that the continent needed a high-quality, independent tool for policy makers and analysts, investors, journalists, academics and students to monitor Africa’s economic development on a continuing basis. Because Africa is made up of so many different, fast-changing countries, such a tool would need to embrace the short-term performance of individual economies in their regional context; and, because development is multi-faceted, it would need to bring together the macroeconomic, structural and social dimensions. Over the years the partnership broadened, with the Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) joining founding partners the African Development Bank (AfDB) and the OECD Development Centre, supported by the European Commission and the African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) states secretariat, as full AEO partners. Coverage has expanded from 22 countries to 53, with only Somalia yet to be included.

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    Executive summary

    Africa’s GDP grew at 6.6% in 2012 from 3.5% in 2011. This acceleration was partly due to considerable rebound in Libya’s GDP which in 2012 grew by 96%, after a sharp contraction of 60% in 2011 following the revolution. Netting out the Libyan effect, growth in Africa’s real GDP was recorded at 4.2%. Thus, Libya’s economic recovery added more than 2 percentage points to Africa’s growth in 2012.

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  • Expand / Collapse Hide / Show all Abstracts Africa’s performance and prospects

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      Macroeconomic prospects for Africa

      The chapter examines the recent macroeconomic developments in Africa and provides a forecast for 2013 and 2014. This is based on detailed country analysis and projections as described in Part Three of this report. The chapter looks at the demand and supply conditions which are affecting Africa’s growth. It also describes the development of commodity prices and inflationary pressures in African countries and discusses how monetary and fiscal policies have responded to the various challenges.
      The economic outlook for Africa remains favourable despite headwinds from the global economy. Growth has remained relatively broad-based, with oil production, mining, agriculture, services and domestic demand as the main drivers, mitigating the adverse effects from global turbulences. But growth has remained subdued in several countries due to poor export performances and political and social tensions. On average, and excluding the distortions by volatile gross domestic product (GDP) developments in Libya, Africa’s economic growth was 4.2% in 2012 and is projected to accelerate to 4.5% in 2013 and further to 5.2% in 2014. This forecast assumes a gradual improvement of global economic conditions.

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      Foreign investment, aid, remittances and tax revenue in Africa

      External financial flows into Africa hit a record in 2012 and are expected to top USD 200 billion in 2013. This highlights the growing importance of investment, official development aid and remittances to a continent on the move. This chapter puts the spotlight on emerging financial trends that Africa can take advantage of and the risks they face. ©

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      Trade policies and regional integration in Africa

      China, India and Brazil are consuming more and more of Africa’s oil, commodities and manufactured goods. The emerging economies are steadily eating into the lion’s share of the African export market held by Europe and the United States. Africa is also seeking to push regional integration to improve its trading prospects, but the going has not been easy. This chapter explains how Africa’s export trade has changed and what still needs to change.

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      Human development in Africa

      Africa’s human development – expanding the choices of its people and giving them a chance to lead full lives – has improved but is still struggling against inequality and low investment in the continent’s population. Africa’s natural resource wealth can be used for economic diversification to improve people’s lives and this chapter argues that good practices exist and policies can be designed to advance sustainable human development.

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      Political and economic governance in Africa

      There are more elections in Africa than ever before, but the intensity of protests across Africa in 2012 was almost the same as the landmark Arab Spring year. North African countries remain tense, while people in many sub-Saharan states worry about jobs and the cost of living. This chapter reveals the African Economic Outlook’s annual indicators on civil protests and political freedoms and sets out the trends behind them.

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      Structural transformation and natural resources in Africa

      Structural transformation towards more productive activities and better jobs is closely linked with a strong natural-resource sector. To harness Africa’s natural resources for structural transformation, a four-layer policy approach is suggested:
      i. establish general framework conditions for structural transformation such as education, infrastructure and access to sufficiently large, regional markets;
      ii. establish specific conditions required for natural resource sectors to thrive;
      iii. optimise the revenues from natural resources and invest them strategically to promote structural transformation;
      iv. address structural transformation directly by increasing agricultural productivity and enabling economic linkages between the natural-resource sector and the economy as a whole.

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      Algeria

      In 2012, the Algerian economy grew by 2.5%, up slightly from 2.4% in 2011. Excluding hydrocarbons, growth has been estimated at 5.8% (up from 5.7% in 2011). Inflation is increasing and is estimated at 8.9% (up from 4.49% in 2011). Despite the financial authorities’ good performance, thanks to modernisation reforms, the budget deficit widened to 3.3% of GDP in 2012 (as against 1.3% in 2011) due to the continuation of the expansionary fiscal policy initiated in 2011 to meet strong social demands in terms of purchasing power, jobs and housing. The oil and gas sector is the country’s main source of revenues, having generated about 70% of total budget receipts. The economy is projected to grow by 3.2% in 2013 and by 4.0 % in 2014.

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      Angola

      The Angolan economy rebounded strongly after several years of low growth attributable to the lingering effects of the global financial crisis. Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an estimated rate of 7.9% in 2012 (up from 3.9% in 2011) on account of the strong performance of the energy, transportation and construction sectors. The outlook for 2013 and 2014 remains positive, with economic growth projected to reach 8.2% and 7.8%, respectively. This will be driven by a combination of continued expansion in the oil and gas sector and a public expenditure programme designed to encourage economic diversification.

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      Benin

      Benin’s economic activity seems to have begun to recover since 2011, after having come under severe pressure in 2009 and 2010 from the combined effects of the global economic crisis and the floods that hit the country. The growth rate of the real economy increased from 2.6% in 2010 to 3.5% in 2011, then to 3.6% in 2012. The recovery in growth has been the result of combined efforts to revive agriculture and repair the infrastructure after the floods of 2010. The country has also benefited from good rainfall. These elements of positive growth were partially offset by the impact of a sharp increase in January 2012 in the price of adulterated petrol called "kpayo". The economic outlook for 2013 and 2014 is positive and should confirm growth recovery, supported by good results from the 2012/13 cotton season and recovery in port activities.

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      Botswana

      Botswana’s economy grew by 8% in 2011, continuing the recovery that had begun in 2010 after the global economic downturn of 2009 and had been aided by improved global demand for diamonds, the country’s major export commodity. Estimates for 2012, however, indicate that the recovery has been difficult to sustain, with the growth rate declining to 5.8%. Deceleration in real gross domestic product (GDP) was due mainly to the mining sector, which declined by 8.0% while the non-mining sectors grew by 9.7%. Projections in the medium term indicate moderate economic growth of around 6% per annum through to 2014, predicated on gloomy global prospects and the associated slow recovery of the mining sector.

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      Burkina Faso

      The economic outlook for 2013 is good, with provisional forecasts predicting growth of 6.7% or higher, compared with 8.0% in 2012. Growth will remain in the 6-8% range thanks to the vitality of the primary and tertiary sectors, which are the driving forces of the economy. The primary sector is the cornerstone of Burkina Faso’s economy, driven by food crops (11.0% of GDP), cash crops (3.5% of GDP) and livestock (11.3% of GDP). These three sub-sectors influence the secondary and tertiary sectors. The primary sector’s strong vulnerability to climatic vagaries makes the pillars of Burkina Faso’s economy fragile. Gold production – the main pillar of the secondary sector – experienced a sharp slowdown in 2012, with negative growth of 0.7% compared with strong growth of 39.4% in 2011. This downturn was caused by delays in opening the Bissa Gold mine. Growth should pick up again in 2013, with production expected to increase by at least 10.4%. Inflationary pressures will be contained at 2.2% in 2013 (down from 3.6% in 2012), and therefore below the convergence of the Economic and Monetary Union of West Africa (UEMOA).

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      Burundi

      Burundi is steadily emerging from a deep socio-political crisis that has destroyed its means of production. The economy has grown an average 4% a year since 2005 but is still fragile because of its dependence on the primary sector, which is a major part of gross domestic product (GDP) and a big source of jobs.

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      Cameroon

      The rebound in the economy initiated following the 2008/09 financial crisis continued in 2012, with growth estimated at 4.9%, versus 4.1% in 2011. Supported by higher oil production and strong domestic demand tied to the launch of large infrastructure projects, this positive performance should continue in the 2013-14 period.

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      Cape Verde

      The slowdown observed since the end of 2011 persisted in 2012, due to economic stagnation around the globe, and in the euro area in particular. Reduced foreign aid and sluggish foreign investment resulted in gross domestic gross domestic product (GDP) growth dropping from 5.0% in 2011 to a projected 4.0% in 2012. Remittances inflows held up, however, and tourism did well. Tourism and ancillary activities remained the driving force of the economy in 2012, accounting for around 30% of GDP and 90% of total exports. Yet the deteriorating global economic outlook and the euro zone sovereign debt crisis is likely to continue to weigh on Cape Verde’s economic performance. However large new public investments are expected to provide support to domestic demand and raise the GDP growth to 4.8% in 2013. Over the medium term, the resumption of structural reforms will be critical if Cape Verde is to sustain the high growth rates of the past decade.

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      Central African Republic

      The increasingly fragile political and security situation has not only worsened the economic outlook for 2013, it has also made it highly uncertain. Despite the peace deal signed in Libreville on 11 January 2013, resulting in a national unity government, the Seleka rebels launched an offensive on the capital, Bangui, on 22 March 2013, setting up a new regime. Chief rebel Michel Djotodia proclaimed himself president, while former president François Bozizé was forced into exile. The events also sparked extensive looting and the destruction of public and private property in Bangui.

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      Chad

      Gross domestic product (GDP) grew 7.2% in 2012 and is projected to increase 7.4% in 2013. This growth will be driven by the buoyancy of the agriculture and oil sectors, largely due to implementation of government industrial, energy and agro-livestock projects. Poor weather affected harvests in 2011 and 2012, pushing inflation up to 7% in 2012. It should drop to 3.1% in 2013.

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      Comoros

      The economy of the Comoros grew by an estimated 2.7% in 2012, despite the ongoing euro area crisis. This growth was driven by strong agricultural exports, continued strong foreign direct investment (FDI) in the transport sector (roads and ports) and domestic demand, supported by remittances from emigrants. The expected recovery of public investment in economic and social infrastructure (energy, water, transport, health and education) after the Comoros reached the completion point of the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative should boost private investment, which is forecast to grow by 9% in 2013 and 2014.

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      Congo, Democratic Republic

      The economy grew 7.2% in 2012 despite difficult world economic and financial conditions and a worrying domestic political and security situation. The performance was largely due to extractive industries, trade, agriculture and construction, macroeconomic stability and robust domestic demand. Growth should continue, to 8.2% in 2013 and 9.4% in 2014, in the light of world demand for minerals and the major investment in the sector in recent years.

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      Congo Republic

      Congo’s economic outlook is still quite good but external factors are a major threat. Gross domestic product (GDP) should grow 5.1% in 2013 and 5.3% in 2014. Apart from oil, the main pillars of growth are forestry, transport and telecommunications, and continued government investment in the public sector. These growth rates will depend on faster reforms and proper management of risks from a deteriorating world economic outlook, especially lower demand for oil and thus lower prices. This shows how vulnerable the economy is and the need to diversify it by developing the non-oil private sector.

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      Côte d'Ivoire

      Economic activity after the post-election crisis was more vigorous than expected. The return of confidence among economic actors in the aftermath of the normalisation of the security situation and increased peace efforts was accordingly confirmed. After a fall of 4.7% in 2011 real gross domestic product (GDP) registered growth estimated at 8.6% in 2012, driven by public investment and the pick-up in final consumption. In the medium term the implementation of the National Development Plan (PND) 2012-15 should put the country back on the trajectory of inclusive and sustainable growth. GDP is forecast to grow in 2013 and 2014 at 8.9% and 9.8% respectively, sustained by the recovery of oil and gas production and by a rise in investment prompted by a better business climate and a strengthening of public-private partnerships.

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      Djibouti

      Growth revived in 2012 to reach 4.5%, driven by the economy’s two main elements, port activity and foreign direct investment (FDI). The port was boosted by a higher volume of transit goods, but this was still below the level previous to the 2008 world financial crisis. Increased FDI was mostly for salt mining at Lake Assal and building the Chabelley airport complex.

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      Egypt

      After toppling Hosni Mubarak in February 2011, Egyptians celebrated the election of Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohammed Morsi on 24 June 2012, as the country’s first democratically elected president. A new constitution, drafted by an Islamist-dominated assembly and narrowly approved in mid-December 2012 by voters, has dramatically divided the country. A new parliament is expected to be in place later in 2013, following elections starting in April to replace the Islamist-dominated body that was dissolved by the Supreme Constitutional Court in June 2012.

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      Equatorial Guinea

      Growth in Equatorial Guinea’s gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have fallen back to 5.5% in 2012 from 7.7% in 2011 because of a fall in production at the Ceiba- Okouméhed oil complex, which had reached its peak. The fall was partially offset by the exploitation of new fields in Aseng. The main drivers for growth were oil and gas, with manufactured products, services and construction providing a smaller contribution.

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      Eritrea

      Infrastructural bottlenecks, weak foreign investment (especially in the non-mining sector) and dwindling aid inflows have remained the critical constraints to Eritrea’s economic performance since its independence in 1993. Nevertheless, the economy grew by 8.7% in 2011 thanks to the commencement of full operations in the gold and silver Bisha mine and to the production of cement from the cement factory in Massawa. Growth in gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have fallen sharply to 5.5% in 2012 due to an unanticipated drop in production at the Bisha mine. The decline in GDP might also be attributed to a reduction in remittances from Eritreans in the Diaspora and to the fall in the price of gold in 2011-12. Growth is expected to improve to 7% in 2013 and then decrease slightly to 6.5% in 2014, driven by gold production in the Koka and Zara mines and by copper production in the Bisha mine. Although Eritrea is on track to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) on child health, HIV/AIDS, malaria and access to safe drinking water, slow progress has been made in eradicating extreme poverty and the achievement of universal primary education.

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      Ethiopia

      Ethiopia’s economy saw a ninth straight year of robust growth in 2012, which was estimated at 6.9%. The growth was broad based with an increasing role for services and industry. This momentum is expected to continue in 2013 and 2014, at a slower pace though.

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      Gabon

      Gabon’s per capita gross domestic product (GDP) is among the highest in sub-Saharan Africa, at almost USD 15 000 at current value, a performance due in large part to the availability of natural resources, especially the exploitation of hydrocarbons. Through the Strategic Plan for Emerging Gabon (PSGE), the authorities have promoted the idea of turning the country into an emerging economy by 2025. This rests on three pillars: "Green Gabon", "Industrial Gabon" and "Service-Industry Gabon". The PSGE hopes to bring about an ambitious programme of structural change in the national economy, based on improved governance of the state, the recovery in public and private investment, the development of infrastructure and human resources and a more equitable distribution of national wealth.

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      Gambia

      Economic growth was hurt in 2011 by a harvest crop failure, but agricultural production started to recover in 2012 and real GDP growth accelerated in 2011. The outlook is optimistic for 2013 and 2014 as real GDP growth is projected to reach 4.3% and 5.1% in 2013 and 2014, respectively, on account of strong expansion in agriculture and tourism. These projections are on the high side; performance will depend on the efficacy of the drought emergency plan, as well as on the impact of government reforms implemented to sustain the agriculture sector.

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      Ghana

      Gross domestic product (GDP) growth decelerated from 14.4% in 2011 to 7.1% in 2012. The economic growth peak in 2011 was due to the start-up of oil production in the last quarter of 2010. The growth performance in 2012 was achieved despite lower cocoa and oil production. Ghana’s medium-term outlook remains healthy, with projected GDP growth of 8.0% (6.5% non-oil) in 2013 and 8.7% (8.9% non-oil) in 2014, well above the average annual growth rate of 6.5% for the period since 2000. Investments in the oil and gas sectors, public infrastructure and commercial agriculture are expected to drive this growth.

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      Guinea

      The socio-economic situation in 2012 was characterised by persistent poverty (55.2%) even though reforms aimed at reviving economic and social developments were implemented and the completion point of the HIPC initiative was reached at the end of September 2012. The country benefited from external debt relief worth USD 2.1 billion.

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      Guinea-Bissau

      The country’s macroeconomic situation was affected by a coup d’état on 12 April 2012, and the economy is estimated to have contracted by 1.5% of gross domestic product (GDP) that year after having grown by 5.3% in 2011. The slowdown was mainly due to lower production and world prices of cashew nuts, which account for some 30% of the added value in the primary sector. The average price of cashew nuts fell from USD 1 350 (US dollars) a tonne in 2011 to USD 1 081 in 2012. Real GDP growth is expected to recover to 4.2% in 2013 and 3.5% in 2014. Inflation, which was 5.0% in 2011 due to higher import prices, should ease, thanks to expected macroeconomic evolutions, to 2.1% in 2012 (with 3.3% in 2013 and 2.5% in 2014) as the economy slowly recovers and domestic markets are adequately supplied.

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      Kenya

      Kenya’s economy continued to record slow growth in 2012, primarily driven by financial intermediation, tourism, construction and agriculture. The first half-year GDP growth rate in 2012 was an estimated 3.4 %, compared to an annual real GDP growth rate of 4.4% in 2011 and 5.8% in 2010. The estimated growth of 4.2% in 2012 was mainly curtailed by a slowdown in most economic sectors. Agriculture – the mainstay of Kenya’s economy – recorded suppressed activity (mainly in the industrial crops sub-sector) and was further affected by slowed demand for Kenyan horticultural exports in the European market. Similarly, the tourism, manufacturing and construction sectors did not reach the anticipated growth levels.

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      Lesotho

      The performance of Lesotho’s economy in 2012 was modest, as drought reduced agricultural production by an estimated 70%. GDP nonetheless grew by 3.8%, mainly driven by the expanding mining sector and the building industry. In the medium term, growth is expected to be only marginally higher. Given the important contribution of exports to the country’s growth and gross international reserves, the uncertain global economic environment as well as uncertainties surrounding the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) trade preferences beyond 2015 will remain critical challenges.

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      Liberia

      Liberia’s post-war economic growth was sustained in 2012, with estimated real GDP growth of 8.9%, led by the first full year of post-conflict iron ore exports, buoyant construction, and strong performance in services. Real GDP is projected to expand by 7.7% in 2013 and 5.4% in 2014, supported by further iron ore expansion and concessionrelated foreign direct investment (FDI). Liberia’s economic outlook remains vulnerable to fluctuations in commodity prices, particularly for its key exports, rubber and iron ore. Potential declines in FDI and overseas development assistance, including the partial drawdown of the substantial UNMIL force, could also affect economic performance. Consumer price inflation moderated to 6.9% in 2012, thanks to lower international food and fuel prices, and is expected to further slow to 5.1% in 2013.

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      Libya

      Libya’s economic activity began to recover in 2012 thanks to the nearly full resumption of oil production by September 2012, an increase in construction and infrastructure activity, and the prospects of reduced political instability. The political volatilities surrounding the transfer of power from the transitional government to a more permanent governance structure, together with an increase in domestic security incidents affecting the army and civilians, however, have acted as obstacles to a smooth recovery and delayed longterm economic planning.

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      Madagascar

      Madagascar’s economic growth, which was negative (4.1%) in 2009 and weak (0.5%) in 2010, progressed to 1.6% in 2011, still low compared to the average growth of sub- Saharan African countries, estimated at 5.3% by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its October 2012 Regional Economic Outlook. The economy grew by 1.9% in 2012, driven mainly by the mining industries, transport (helped by a revival of tourism) and exports from customs-free zones.1 The authorities applied a restrictive fiscal policy to cope with the reduction of external aid, a consequence of the political crisis that has shaken the country since 2009. They followed a prudent monetary policy and managed to contain the budget deficit at 3.1% of GDP (as against 1.7% in 2011). Similarly, they managed to limit the increase of prices to an annual average of 6.4%, down from 9.8% in 2011. The currentaccount deficit widened to 8.3% of GDP from 6.9% of GDP in 2011. This was the result of greater deterioration in the trade balance and in the services balance, which could not be offset by improvements in the balance of current transfers and of the balance of financial transactions and in capital. Finally, if the elections intended to put an end to the crisis are organised in 2013 as planned, growth could accelerate in 2013 and 2014 to 3% and 4%, respectively. It would benefit from the expansion of the mining industries, the gradual resumption of external financing favourable to construction, and the buoyancy of trade and tourism.

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      Malawi

      Real GDP growth slowed to 4.3% in 2011 from 6.3% in 2010 on account of foreign exchange and fuel shortages, which disrupted activities in sectors such as manufacturing and trade. The shortage of foreign exchange in 2011 was caused by the decline in earnings from Malawi’s major export commodity, tobacco, and suspension of donor budget support. Real GDP growth in 2012 is estimated at 2.0%, substantially lower than the 4.3% growth target. The sharp slowdown in the economy in 2012 was mainly due to the contraction in agricultural and manufacturing output. The agriculture sector, which dominates economic activities, shrank by 3.0% in 2012 on account of erratic rains and the collapse in tobacco auction prices. Real GDP growth in 2013 and 2014 is expected to rebound to 5.5% and 6.1%, respectively, anchored on the recovery in agriculture, manufacturing and wholesale and trade. The rebound is premised on a revival in tobacco production, an easing of the foreign exchange constraint, improved availability of fuel and a continuation of prudent macroeconomic policies.

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      Mali

      In addition to the food crisis that began in 2011, the 22 March 2012 coup d’état marked the beginning of a serious political crisis, with armed groups occupying the three northern regions (two-thirds of the national territory) between April 2012 and January 2013. An African and French military intervention was carried out against these groups in January 2013. Consequently, the economy largely ground to a halt in 2012, and international co operation was suspended. Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth was -1.5% in 2012 due to the weak performance of the secondary (-2.2%) and tertiary (-8.8%) sectors. For its part, the primary sector grew by 8.1%.

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      Mauritania

      Mauritania has had a high growth rate since 2010, estimated at 6.0% in 2012. The main drivers of growth were agriculture, following good rainfall, and particularly construction and public works. Both sectors have recorded increases in volume in 2012 of 39.6% and 23.3% respectively. Fishing is also doing well, with growth of 14.8%. The difficult international situation has, however, affected the mining industry, particularly iron, which is the country’s main export.

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      Mauritius

      The Mauritian economy has remained resilient in spite of the recession in the euro area that has weakened its external demand. At 3.3% in 2012, the real GDP growth rate remained positive although it continues to ease after growth rates of 3.8% and 4.2% in 2011 and 2010 respectively. Growth was anchored by strong performances in the financial services, information and communications technology (ICT) and seafood sectors. The 2013 outlook is positive, but may be tempered by downside risks if external demand remains timid. Growth is projected at 3.8% and 4.2% for 2013 and 2014, respectively, driven by continued expansion in the financial services, ICT and seafood sectors. The Cost Price Index (CPI) inflation steadily declined from 6.5% in 2011 to 4.1% in 2012 as the base effects were absorbed and global prices trended downward. As risks to growth outweighed price stability challenges the Key Repo Rate (KRR) was cut by 50 basis points to 4.9% in March 2012.

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      Morocco

      Thanks to its economic development model, which combines openness, liberalisation and structural reform, Morocco has shown resilience in a difficult national and international context. Nevertheless the slowdown in activity in Europe, which is the country’s chief economic partner, and below-average agricultural production resulted in a distinct slowdown in growth, which was 3.2% in 2012. That rate makes it impossible to reduce the high level of unemployment, especially among young graduates and women. However, growth should pick up in 2013 to reach around 4.6%, driven by the consolidation of internal demand. Some industries have been given a boost by the implementation of the 2009-15 National Pact for Industrial Emergence (Pacte national d’émergence industrielle, {PNEI}) and they should make a vigorous contribution to growth.

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      Mozambique

      Mozambique continued its robust economic performance in 2012. The real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate increased by 0.1% from 2011 to 2012. It was driven by larger than expected coal production, which contributed 0.8% to the GDP growth rate. The continuation of sizable foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, increased coal production, credit expansion to the private sector and strong infrastructure investment are expected to drive growth to 8.5% and 8.0% in 2013 and 2014, respectively. An ambitious infrastructure programme, coupled with the expansion of social safety nets will pressure public finances. The continued negative trend in foreign aid flows will further stress the fiscal balance. The fiscal deficit is expected to worsen from 8.2% in 2012, to 9.2% and 9.5% in 2013 and 2014, respectively. The government plans to rely on private financing and public-private partnerships to finance infrastructure development; however, an enhanced institutional framework is needed to assure accountability and scrutiny for the plans to add economic value.

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      Namibia

      Namibia’s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth is expected to remain moderate at around 4.7% in 2012, reflecting the strong performance in mining and construction activities and high government spending. The latter has been aimed at cushioning the domestic economy from the severe impact of the global economic downturn and addressing persistently high rates of unemployment, poverty and inequality. The country’s growth prospects for the medium term remain favourable. GDP growth is projected to remain moderate at about 4.2% per annum in 2013/14 due to the deteriorating prospects for the global economy.

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      Niger

      The political situation in Niger is still improving. However, the regional crisis in Mali fuelled by jihadist groups (AQIM, Ansar Dine and MOJWA), and taken up by Boko Haram in Nigeria could threaten social cohesion in Niger. Because of the risks, Niger could change its budgetary decisions, increasing spending on security and defence at the expense of certain areas of social spending.

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      Nigeria

      The Nigerian economy slowed down from 7.4% growth in 2011 to 6.6% in 2012. The oil sector continues to drive the economy, with average growth of about 8.0%, compared to -0.35% for the non-oil sector. Agriculture and the oil and gas sectors continue to dominate economic activities and Nigeria. The fiscal consolidation stance of the government has helped to contain the fiscal deficit below 3.0% of gross domestic product (GDP). This, coupled with the tight monetary policy stance of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), helped to keep inflation at around 12.0% in 2012. The outlook for growth remains positive. Shortand mid-term downside risks include security challenges arising from religious conflict in some states, costs associated with flooding, slower global economic growth (particularly in the United States and China) and the sovereign debt crisis in the euro area.

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      Rwanda

      Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth remained strong in 2012, largely driven by the service and industry sectors. Agriculture grew by a moderate 3.0% during the first three quarters of 2012 due to unfavourable weather conditions. The diversification of markets for tea and minerals, particularly coltan, boosted the export sector, which increased by 24.8% in 2012. Development assistance is key to the 2013 economic outlook. Assuming that aid, suspended by some development partners in 2012, resumes in 2013, GDP growth is projected to moderate to 7.1% in 2013. This projection takes into account other factors, including programmed fiscal consolidation, which prioritises public spending towards strategic investments, which, in turn, dampens aggregate demand, as well as a tight monetary policy that is a deterrant to the expansion of private sector credit. A protracted suspension of foreign assistance, however, could undermine Rwanda’s economic prospects including a further reduction in real GDP growth and reverse progress towards the MDGs.

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      São Tomé and Príncipe

      The economy in São Tomé and Príncipe grew by 4.9% in 2011 compared with 4.5% in 2010. The growth was driven by the service, transport, construction and retail sectors. In 2012 the government reported a slight decrease in the growth rate to 4.0%, the result of a reduction in foreign direct investment (FDI) and private and public consumption. Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth is projected to be 5.2% and 5.8% in 2013 and 2014, respectively, thanks to an increase in FDI, the oil signature bonus and the inception of the country’s major infrastructure projects, notably the deep-water seaport.

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      Senegal

      Senegal’s economy recovered in 2012 with growth estimated at 3.7% of gross domestic product (GDP), up from 2.1% in 2011. Projected growth for 2013 and 2014 is 4.3% and 5.1% respectively. These projections assume that the government’s socio-economic programme will be implemented along with the Policy Support Instrument (PSI-II) 2010-13 agreed upon with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The main investment programmes are for road infrastructure, with the continuation of a toll motorway and Blaise Diagne International Airport, as well as energy (electricity distribution).

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      Seychelles

      In 2012, the Seychelles’ real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth slowed further to an estimated 2.8%, from 5% in 2011. Despite this, the performance was positive considering the uncertain global environment on which Seychelles’ economy depends heavily. Reduced growth was due to a continued decline in foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and the impact of increased food and fuel prices on macroeconomic fundamentals. The country also faced exchange rate instability, particularly in the first half of 2012. This led to a depreciation of the rupee and an increase in mid-year inflation to over 9%, the highest in over 4 years. Though end of year inflation reduced to 7.1%, it was significantly higher than in 2011. Despite the fact tourism revenue has fallen following the financial crisis, it is still the main driver of economic growth and showed some resilience in 2012. Tourism grew by about 8% in 2012 driven by an increase in arrivals, particularly from non-traditional markets. GDP is projected to increase slightly in 2013 to 3.2% as new tourist markets are further explored and the contribution of other sectors, such as fisheries and services, increases. Lower inflation is also expected to increase private sector activity and domestic demand, albeit marginally. GDP is expected to increase marginally to above 4% in 2014, as new markets are explored, consistency in economic policy is maintained, investment spending increased and an improvement in the business environment pursued.

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      Sierra Leone

      Driven by the mining sector (particularly iron ore), real GDP growth accelerated from 6% in 2011 to 16.7% in 2012 as a consequence of iron ore production. It has also been supported by agriculture, services and an expansion in construction. GDP growth is projected to stabilise around 7.2% in 2013 before reaching 12.1% in 2014 as iron ore projects become fully operational.

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      South Africa

      2012 was one of the most turbulent years since 1994 as labour unrest in the mining sector crippled production. In addition, the country’s major trading partner, the euro area, slid into recession. Nevertheless, fixed investment accelerated in 2012. Economic growth picked up in 2012 but fell short of forecasts as export volumes barely expanded and consumer demand slowed. Economic growth is expected to benefit from expanded infrastructure investment and an increase in electrical capacity. That said, strong recovery will depend on the resolution of global challenges and on alleviating structural constraints.

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      South Sudan

      South Sudan gained independence on 9 July 2011 and its first year of independence was characterised by economic hardships. The size of the economy, measured by nominal gross domestic product (GDP), was SSP 43.1 billion (South Sudanese pounds) (equivalent to USD 14.4 billion) in fiscal year (FY) 2011/12, compared with SSP 42.9 billion (equivalent to USD 14.3 billion) in FY 2010/11. However, real GDP growth contracted in FY 2011/12 by 27% as a result of the shutdown of the oil pipelines and is projected to further contract by 16.3% in 2012/13 owing to the delay in full resumption of oil production.

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      Sudan

      Post-secession Sudan has yet to produce comprehensive, reliable and up-to-date macroeconomic data that meet international standards. This note continues to use macroeconomic data based on estimates provided by the 2013 budget document for 2012 and 2013 together with historical data provided by the authorities and the IMF Staff Monitored Programme (SMP).

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      Swaziland

      The year 2013 presents an opportunity for the government to redirect its fiscal policy by utilising the projected high SACU receipts and to address some of the longer-term fiscal challenges. In this endeavour, the government can draw on reform recommendations in its updated Fiscal Adjustment Roadmap (FAR), which, over the medium term, puts emphasis on: i) adoption and implementation of the Public Finance Management (PFM) Bill; ii) removing pro-cyclicality of fiscal policy; iii) developing a medium-term expenditure framework (MTEF); and iv) strengthening domestic resource mobilisation. The fiscal measures, together with reforms of the investment climate and the development of comprehensive social protection schemes, are needed to bring the economy onto an inclusive growth path.

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      Tanzania

      Tanzania continues to do well in maintaining overall macroeconomic stability – which, along with institutional and policy reforms, has been a fundamental factor behind the strong economic growth rates. The main drivers of growth have been agriculture, manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade, transport and communication activities. The economy has also continued to record strong export growth. Tanzania’s medium-term growth prospects are around 7%, significantly boosted by natural gas discoveries.

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      Togo

      The primary sector dominates the Togolese economy, contributing 38% to gross domestsic product (GDP) in 2012, ahead of the tertiary sector (23%) and secondary sector (21%). Agriculture as a share of GDP remains a mainstay of the sector at 27%. Estimated growth of 5.0% for 2012 will come mainly from the primary and secondary sectors, in particular cotton, phosphate, and construction and public works, up from 2011. Together, these two sectors added 4.1% to real growth in 2012 (1.6% and 2.5% respectively), compared to 2.8% in 2011 (1.9% and 0.9% respectively). A public investment programme continues, which includes investment in roads and, combined with the revival of the phosphate and cotton sectors, is expected to support growth in 2013 and 2014, which could reach 5.3% and 5.5% respectively.

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      Tunisia

      Tunisia’s economy rebounded in 2012, growing by 3.3%. A good agricultural season and the relative recovery in tourism, foreign direct investment (FDI) and hydrocarbon and phosphate production, which almost stagnated in 2011, contributed to the economic recovery. However, the European crisis and the decline in external demand had a negative impact on exports, particularly of textiles and machinery and electricity. Overall, production benefited from a more stable social climate in 2011 and continued domestic demand, but the economy as a whole is not improving as fast as was expected. Unemployment remains high, as do the current-account and budget deficits, because of the lack of structural reforms and the failure of the country’s main economic partner, Europe, to achieve a strong economic recovery. The greatest risks are ideological tensions, protests and possible pre-election populist policies, which could lead to overspending.

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      Uganda

      After a year of turbulence, the Ugandan government stabilised the economy in 2012 with inflation falling to 14.6% from 18.7% in 2011. Tightened fiscal and monetary policy helped bring fiscal balances under control. While laying the foundations for recovery and growth, stabilisation came at the cost of a slowdown in gross domestic product (GDP) growth to 3.2% by June 2012. A gradual recovery is expected, with real GDP growth projected to reach 4.4% in 2012, then picking up to 4.9% in 2013 and 5.5% in 2014. Growth could be lower however if the suspension of budget support aid, announced by several donors in November 2012 over a government corruption case, is maintained.

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      Zambia

      Zambia’s economy extended its growth momentum in 2012. Growth was driven by expansion in agriculture, construction, manufacturing, transport and finance. Economic prospects for the future appear bright if growth can be sustained and broadened to accelerate job creation and poverty reduction. After a successive slump in output, copper mining is expected to rebound in 2013, and is projected to reach 1.5 million tonnes by 2015. This is largely due to investment in new mines and the expansion of capacity at existing plants. Robust international copper prices will provide additional stimulus to mining.

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      Zimbabwe

      Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth was projected to decelerate to 4.4% in 2012 down from an estimated 10.6% in 2011 reflecting a slowdown in economic activity. It is projected to improve marginally to 5.0% in 2013. The projected improvement in 2013 will be underpinned by improvements in mining and agriculture.

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      Country Snapshots
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    Statistical Annex
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