Sierra Leone
Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth increased from 5% (excluding iron ore) in 2010 to 5.7% in 2011 and is projected to rise gradually to 6.2% in 2012 and 2013 driven by recovery in the mining sector. According to International Monetary Fund (IMF) projections, new iron ore exploration planned for 2012 should result in a one-time expansion of real GDP growth (including iron ore) of 51.4% this year. Growth is expected to stabilise around 10.2% in 2013.
According to the UN Human Development Report (2007), Sierra Leone remains one of the poorest places in the world. By the end of the 1980s, the country was nearing a state of collapse, following years of poor governance and economic mismanagement under Siaka Stevens’ APC government. The protracted conflict of the 1990s destroyed much of the country’s basic social and economic infrastructure, resulting in entrenched and widespread poverty. While the causes of the war were complex, there does appear to be some consensus that poor governance, rampant corruption and the creation of a socially excluded underclass were responsible for creating the preconditions for war. Diamonds played a crucial role in fuelling the conflict, as the various parties funded their war efforts through mining activities (Maconachie, 2008).
A Strategic Environmental and Social Assessment (SESA) of the mining sector in Sierra Leone was undertaken between 2006 and 2007 in order to support legal and policy reforms and to assist in the country’s economic recovery. The SESA created a platform for dialogue involving all key mining stakeholders including traditionally sidelined interest groups like villagers, civil society organisations and non-governmental organisations. The greatest challenge ahead for Sierra Leone is to maintain capacity development and governance strengthening around the mining sector.
Having recorded 4.5% in 2010, growth is projected to rise to 5.1 in 2011 and to gradually recover to 6.0% in 2012. The medium-term outlook for the Sierra Leonean economy is positive, but even more could be done on the structural reform side to help bring the country on a path of high growth with the job creation needed for significant improvements in people's living standards. Growth is being driven by exports of minerals and cash crops due to the global recovery, the expansion of the service sector, increased agricultural productivity, and continued investment in infrastructure. The recent completion of the Bumbuna power station has already started to yield benefits. The government has undertaken key reforms (e.g. in the financial sector, tax reforms) that will bring benefits only later but bode well for the country's future.
The gradual projected recovery in 2010 mostly reflects continued buoyant agricultural production and services, and exports that are slowly turning around. Nevertheless, exports of minerals, driven by the global return to growth, remain subdued because of compressed prices, reduced investment and continued production difficulties in the rutile sub-sector. Although growth is projected to increase to 5% in 2011 thanks to stronger global recovery and rising exports, returns on infrastructure investments and an improved business climate, it will remain below the pre-crisis rates. Even small differences in growth are potentially very damaging for a vulnerable country such as Sierra Leone, given the widespread poverty and the risk of policy reversal and social instability. For the future the key policy priority is thus to bring the economy quickly back on a high and broad-based growth path, as the current slowdown raises already high unemployment, hampers progress with poverty reduction and heightens risks of resurgence of fragility. In this context, stable and predictable foreign aid delivery remains crucial.
La reprise progressive prévue en 2010 traduit essentiellement le dynamisme soutenu de la production agricole et des services, mais aussi le redressement mesuré des exportations. Toutefois, les exportations des ressources minérales du pays, entraînées par le retour de la croissance internationale, restent modestes en raison de la contraction des cours, de la réduction des investissements et des difficultés de production persistantes dans le sous-secteur de l'extraction de rutile. En dépit d'une croissance en hausse qui devrait s'établir à 5 % en 2011 sous l'effet d'une reprise mondiale plus robuste, de la progression des exportations, des retours sur investissements dans les infrastructures et d'un contexte plus propice aux affaires, celle-ci restera inférieure aux taux d'avant-crise. Même minime, tout écart de croissance peut potentiellement s'avérer très dommageable pour un pays déjà vulnérable comme la Sierra Leone, compte tenu de la pauvreté généralisée et des risques de retournement politique et d'instabilité sociale. Les pouvoirs publics auront donc pour prochaine mission stratégique de remettre rapidement l'économie sur la voie d'une croissance soutenue et la plus large possible, alors que le ralentissement actuel engendre déjà un fort taux de chômage, freine les progrès visant à réduire la pauvreté et aggrave les risques de refragiliser le pays. Dans un tel contexte, une aide étrangère stable et fiable reste un facteur des plus essentiels.
The Constitution of Sierra Leone provides for equal rights for men and women, but the principle of non-discrimination does not apply in all areas. In February 2007, the government established a commission to review the Constitution and eliminate all discriminatory measures.
EN 2008, LA SIERRA LEONE A affiché une croissance relativement solide : selon les estimations, le produit intérieur brut (PIB) a progressé de 5.4 pour cent, malgré la flambée mondiale des cours du pétrole. Il devrait croître de 6.3 pour cent en 2009 et de 5.5 pour cent en 2010. Ce pays est toujours en pleine reconstruction après la guerre civile de 1991-2001 et, si les bonnes performances récentes peuvent traduire en partie une croissance de rattrapage, il convient de les saluer étant donné qu’elles sont parallèles à la hausse des cours mondiaux des denrées alimentaires et du pétrole, et que la Sierra Leone est tributaire des importations pour ces produits. Le défi qui lui reste à relever sera de consolider cette croissance et d’éradiquer les facteurs de risque de conflit persistants, comme un taux de chômage et de pauvreté élevés. Il lui faut également juguler l’inflation, qui s’élevait à 13 pour cent en 2008.
SIERRA LEONE POSTED RELATIVELY STRONG growth in 2008 with GDP increasing by an estimated 5.4 per cent despite high oil prices. GDP is projected to rise by 6.3 per cent in 2009 and by 5.5 per cent in 2010. The country is still reconstructing following the 1991- 2001 civil war and while recent positive performances may in part reflect catch-up growth they are to be commended given Sierra Leone’s dependence on food and oil imports in a time of global price increases. The challenge going forward will be to consolidate growth and to address the enduring risk factors for conflict such as widespread unemployment and poverty. Reining in inflation, which was 13 per cent in 2008, is also important.