Niger
Most solutions dealing with climate change in rural Nigeria are biased in favour of a modern or Western worldview. Local indigenous knowledge of forest management and of adaptation to climate change is seen as irrelevant.
Taking the Ningxia Autonomous Region in China as an example, and applying participatory social research, this article assesses the important determinants of vulnerability to climate change in rural communities and the relative degree of spatial vulnerability. Over the past decades, rural households have undertaken self-initiated adaptation, while the local government is in the process of permanently relocating some inhabitants to less vulnerable regions.
La situation politique au Niger continue de s’améliorer. Toutefois, la crise régionale au Mali alimentée par les groupes djihadistes (Aqmi, Ansar Dine, Mujao) et relayée par la secte Boko Haram au Nigeria pourrait menacer la cohésion sociale au Niger. Devant les risques, le Niger pourrait modifier ses choix budgétaires en augmentant les dépenses de sécurité et de défense au détriment de certaines dépenses de nature sociale.
The political situation in Niger is still improving. However, the regional crisis in Mali fuelled by jihadist groups (AQIM, Ansar Dine and MOJWA), and taken up by Boko Haram in Nigeria could threaten social cohesion in Niger. Because of the risks, Niger could change its budgetary decisions, increasing spending on security and defence at the expense of certain areas of social spending.
Sous l’effet de chocs externes, une contraction de la croissance économique a été enregistrée en 2011. Les effets combinés des aléas climatiques et d’une pluviométrie peu abondante, ainsi que les répercussions des crises ivoirienne, nigériane et libyenne ont ralenti la croissance de l’économie, qui serait en net recul à 4.2 % contre 8.0 % en 2010. Les perspectives à moyen terme sont toutefois très favorables avec un taux de croissance qui devrait atteindre 11.2 % en 2012 avant de se stabiliser à 6.0 % en 2013. Cette accélération de la croissance est tirée par les secteurs minier (uranium) et pétrolier avec la raffinerie de Zinder.
External shocks – bad weather and little rain, as well as the effect of political crises in nearby Côte d’Ivoire, Nigeria and Libya – sharply reduced growth in 2011 to 4.2% (from 8% the previous year). Medium-term prospects are very good, however, and the economy should expand by 11.2% in 2012 before settling at 6% in 2013, mostly due to mining (uranium) and oil (the new refinery at Zinder).
Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2010 was estimated at 5.5%, essentially driven by the agricultural sector which achieved good results throughout the country. This situation contrasts with that of 2009 when, as a result of low rainfall, GDP dropped -1.2% after growth of 9.5% in 2008, which was an exceptional year. Growth should return to 4.9% in 2011 and then recover to 11.5% in 2012 as production starts at the Imouraren uranium mine, the biggest in Africa.
Niger’s economy, totally dominated by an agricultural sector suffering from severe drought, shows real signs of weakness. As a result, economic growth in 2009 fell by 0.9%, after rising by 9.5% in 2008. the 2009/10 harvests look poor compared with 2008, particularly for millet and sorghum. Agricultural production plummeted in 2009 by 13.6%, after rising by 23.8% in 2008.
Niger’s living standards are among the lowest in the world and women live under particularly harsh conditions. Traditions exert a heavy influence and Nigerien women have little legal protection. The lack of social institutions leaves all women highly vulnerable.