Mozambique

Le Mozambique a pu préserver ses solides résultats économiques en 2012. Son produit intérieur brut (PIB) réel a progressé de 0.1 point de pourcentage entre 2011 et 2012, principalement grâce à une production de charbon plus substantielle que prévu, qui a contribué à hauteur de 0.8 point de pourcentage à cette croissance du PIB. La persistance d’abondants flux d’investissement direct étranger (IDE), l’augmentation de l’extraction de charbon, l’expansion du crédit au secteur privé et la vigueur des investissements d’infrastructure devraient propulser la croissance à 8.5 % en 2013 et à 8.0 % en 2014. Cependant, les finances publiques pâtiront de l’effet conjugué d’un ambitieux programme d’infrastructures et de l’élargissement des filets de sécurité sociale. La poursuite de la tendance négative des flux d’aide extérieure continuera de peser sur le solde budgétaire. On s’attend donc à un creusement du déficit à 9.2 % en 2013 et à 9.5 % en 2014, contre 8.2 % en 2012. Les autorités nationales prévoient de recourir à des fonds privés et à des partenariats public-privé pour financer le développement de l’infrastructure ; il faudra néanmoins un meilleur cadre institutionnel pour la reddition de comptes et l’examen des projets destinés à créer de la valeur économique.

Moçambique continuou a registar um robusto desempenho económico em 2012. O produto interno bruto (PIB) real aumentou 0.1% de 2011 para 2012. Tal crescimento foi impulsionado por uma produção de carvão superior à esperada, que contribuiu com 0.8% para a taxa de crescimento do PIB. A continuação do considerável investimento directo estrangeiro (IDE), o aumento da produção de carvão, a expansão do crédito ao sector privado e o forte investimento em infra-estruturas deverão contribuir para impulsionar o crescimento para 8.5% e 8.0% em 2013 e 2014, respectivamente. No entanto, as finanças públicas irão sofrer pressões sob o efeito combinado resultante de um ambicioso programa de infra-estruturas, juntamente com a expansão das redes de segurança social. A continuação da tendência negativa registada nos fluxos de ajuda externa irá afectar o equilíbrio orçamental. Assim, prevê-se um aumento do défice para 9,2% em 2013 e para 9.5% em 2014, contra 8.2% em 2012. O Governo prevê recorrer ao financiamento privado e às parcerias público-privadas para financiar o desenvolvimento de infra-estruturas, no entanto, é necessário reforçar o enquadramento institucional de modo a garantir a prestação de contas e o controlo dos projectos e adicionar valor económico.

Mozambique continued its robust economic performance in 2012. The real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate increased by 0.1% from 2011 to 2012. It was driven by larger than expected coal production, which contributed 0.8% to the GDP growth rate. The continuation of sizable foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, increased coal production, credit expansion to the private sector and strong infrastructure investment are expected to drive growth to 8.5% and 8.0% in 2013 and 2014, respectively. An ambitious infrastructure programme, coupled with the expansion of social safety nets will pressure public finances. The continued negative trend in foreign aid flows will further stress the fiscal balance. The fiscal deficit is expected to worsen from 8.2% in 2012, to 9.2% and 9.5% in 2013 and 2014, respectively. The government plans to rely on private financing and public-private partnerships to finance infrastructure development; however, an enhanced institutional framework is needed to assure accountability and scrutiny for the plans to add economic value.

Le coup de fouet donné à la production de charbon par les premiers mégaprojets mis en exploitation en 2011, couplé à la solide performance des services financiers, des transports, de la communication et du bâtiment, a contribué à porter la croissance du produit intérieur brut (PIB) réel à 7.2 % en 2011. Le pays affiche un taux de croissance moyen impressionnant de 7.2 % sur les dix dernières années. La tendance devrait se maintenir en 2012 et 2013, à respectivement 7.5 et 7.9 %. L'économie reste dopée par le niveau élevé des investissements directs étrangers (IDE), destinés en priorité aux industries extractives, mais aussi par la bonne tenue de la production agricole et la poursuite des investissements d’infrastructure. Malgré ce rythme soutenu, la politique monétaire stricte maintenue par la banque centrale et la prudence budgétaire des autorités ont permis de ramener l’inflation de 12.7 % à 10.8 % en fin d’année 2011. Le reflux devrait se confirmer en 2012, à 7.2 %, avant une stabilisation à 5.6 % attendue en 2013, ce qui autorise un relâchement de la politique monétaire en 2012 pour stimuler le crédit. La mise en oeuvre des mesures en faveur des pauvres élaborées en 2011 et l’ambitieux programme d’investissement dans les infrastructures devraient creuser le déficit budgétaire, de - 3.3 % en 2011 à respectivement -6.8 et -7.4 % en 2012 et 2013. À moyen terme, le principal défi structurel consistera à élargir l’assiette fiscale du pays. Les apports d’aide devraient poursuivre leur décrue, de 51.4 % du budget en 2010 à 39.6 % en 2012. La diversification de la base du revenu, à travers notamment une fiscalité plus efficace dans le secteur des industries extractives, sera vitale pour soutenir et promouvoir une croissance inclusive.

O aumento da produção de carvão a partir dos primeiros mega-projetos mineiros de exploração de carvão, que entraram em operação este ano, juntamente com o forte desempenho registado no sector de serviços financeiros, transportes e comunicações e construção, ajudaram a acelerar o crescimento do PIB real para 7.2%, em 2011. O país alcançou uma impressionante média de crescimento de 7.2% ao longo da última década. A continuação de um elevado Investimento Directo Estrangeiro (IDE), sobretudo em indústrias extractivas, juntamente com o forte crescimento agrícola e o investimento em infra-estruturas vai impulsionar o crescimento para 7.5% e 7.9%, em 2012 e 2013. Apesar do forte crescimento, a firme e rígida política monetária do Banco Central, apoiada por uma política orçamental prudente, reduziu a inflação anual de 12.7% para 10.8%, em 2011. As perspectivas de uma redução ainda maior da inflação para 7.2%, em 2012, e a sua estabilização em 5.6%, em 2013, vai permitir a flexibilização da política monetária em 2012, visando a expansão do crédito. A implementação de medidas pró-pobres preparadas durante 2011, juntamente com um ambicioso programa de investimento em infra-estruturas, deve ampliar o défice orçamental de 3.3%, em 2011, para 6.8% e 7.4%, em 2012 e 2013. O principal desafio económico estrutural de Moçambique, a médio prazo, reside no alargamento da sua base fiscal. Espera-se uma diminuição continuada dos fluxos de ajuda de 51.4% do orçamento, em 2010, para 39.6%, em 2012. É fundamental diversificar a base das receitas, nomeadamente através de uma maior tributação do sector extractivo, a fim de sustentar e promover uma agenda de crescimento inclusivo.

The boost in coal production from the first mega coal mining projects that came online this year, coupled with strong performance in the financial services sector, transport and communications, and construction, helped to push GDP real growth rate to 7.2% in 2011. The country has achieved an impressive average of 7.2% growth during the last decade. The continuation of high foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, mostly in extractive industries, together with strong agricultural growth and infrastructure investment will drive growth to 7.5% and 7.9% in 2012 and 2013. Despite the strong growth, the Central Bank’s consistent tight monetary policy, supported by a prudent fiscal policy, reduced the end of year inflation from 12.7% to 10.8% in 2011. Prospects of a further decrease in inflation to 7.2% in 2012 and stabilisation at 5.6% in 2013, will allow a monetary policy easing in 2012, targeting credit expansion. The roll-out of pro-poor measures prepared during 2011, coupled with an ambitious infrastructure investment programme should widen the fiscal deficit from -3.3% in 2011 to -6.8 and -7.4% in 2012 and 2013. Mozambique’s main medium-term economic structural challenge is the broadening of its fiscal base. Aid flows are expected to decrease continually from 51.4% of budget in 2010 to 39.6% in 2012. The diversification of the revenue base, in particular through enhanced extractive sector taxation, is paramount to sustain and promote an inclusive growth agenda.

Mozambique's economy continued to perform well in 2010, growing by an estimated 8.1%. Growth in 2009 had been achieved despite a drop in aluminium prices, offset by massive inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) in coal projects, whereas in 2010 the economy benefited from both FDI and recovering aluminium prices. In addition, coal extracted from the "mega-projects" in Tete province will start adding to exports in 2011. Exports are therefore expected to increase, although the current account balance will remain structurally negative due to the country's dependence on imports of food, oil and manufactured products. Mozambique is expected to maintain high growth rates in the medium term, driven by mega-projects.

Mozambique weathered the global financial crisis relatively well, maintaining strong, if lower growth than in 2008 while inflation was subdued. The limited exposure of the country’s banking system to international financial markets minimised the direct impact of the global crisis. Supportive government measures, such as fuel subsidies, helped sustain growth together with an increase in agricultural output.

Quoiqu’en recul par rapport à 2008, la croissance est restée solide tandis que l’inflation a été contenue. La présence réduite du système bancaire du pays sur les marchés financiers internationaux a limité les retombées de la crise mondiale. Les mesures d’accompagnement prises par les pouvoirs publics, comme les subventions aux carburants, ont aidé à soutenir la croissance en même temps qu’à accroître la production agricole.

The 1999 Constitution of Mozambique upholds the principle of equality between men and women in every aspect of the country’s economic, social, political and cultural life. The state endeavours to promote the emancipation of women and improve their situation. Customary laws are still discriminatory, however, particularly with regard to family relations and inheritance. The government has established a legal reform commission to review discriminatory legislation.

ALORS QU’ELLE ÉVOLUAIT À UNE MOYENNE annuelle de 8.6 pour cent depuis le début de la décennie, la croissance du Mozambique est retombée à 6.2 pour cent en 2008, le pays ayant connu de graves inondations et des pénuries d’électricité. L’économie devrait être relativement protégée des turbulences financières internationales, étant peu intégrée au marché mondial des capitaux. Cependant, la croissance devrait encore ralentir et se situer à 4 pour cent en 2009, en raison de la baisse conjuguée de la demande mondiale de matières premières, des investissements directs étrangers (IDE) et des investissements publics financés grâce à l’aide extérieure. Les prévisions de croissance pour 2010, estimées à 5.2 pour cent, sont basées sur les hypothèses d’un redémarrage de l’économie mondiale et de la poursuite du développement de l’agriculture. L’inflation a grimpé à 10.4 pour cent en 2008, poussée par les prix élevés des denrées alimentaires et des carburants ; elle devrait refluer en 2009 dans le sillage des prix internationaux.

AFTER AVERAGING 8.6 PER CENT SINCE the beginning of the decade, growth in Mozambique fell to 6.2 per cent in 2008 because of disruptive floods and energy shortages. The economy is likely to be relatively shielded from the direct impacts of the current world financial crisis because its financial system is poorly integrated into world capital markets. However, growth is expected to slow in 2009 to 4 per cent as a consequence of falling world demand for commodities, foreign direct investment (FDI) flows and public investment financed with external assistance. It will rebound to 5.2 per cent in 2010, assuming a partial recovery of the international economy and further expansion of agriculture. Inflation rose to 10.4 per cent in 2008 because of high food and fuel prices but it is expected to fall in 2009 following the decline in international prices.