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The environmental impacts of economic activity have become an increasingly urgent concern in both OECD Member countries, as well as in non-Member countries. Research in this area is still in its infancy, and the data required to buttress analytical studies is still sparse. This paper describes the base model specification for a series of six country case studies undertaken at the OECD Development Centre to analyse the links between growth and emissions, and emissions and trade instruments.

The model attempts to capture some of the key features relating to environmental emissions. These features include: a) linking emissions to the consumption of polluting inputs (as opposed to output); b) including emissions generated by final demand consumption; c) integrating substitutability between polluting and non-polluting inputs (including capital and labour); d) capturing important dynamic effects such as capital accumulation, population growth, productivity and technological ...

Short-term forecasting methods joint issue with Économie et PrévisionThis issue is a special issue in two respects. First, all contributions deal with shortterm forecasting methods. Second and above all, this special issue results from an original and fruitful collaboration between two scientific journals: Économie et Prévision and the Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis (JBCMA).

Employment is pivotal to strengthening Greece’s economic recovery, increasing social welfare and redressing poverty. Jobs are returning, making inroads into high unemployment, but their wages and skill levels are lower than many that were lost during the crisis. Greece’s hiring is benefiting from more flexible arrangements. Legislative amendments can maintain this flexibility, ensure wages align with productivity and better protect individuals from labour market risks. Ensuring that workers possess skills that match employers’ needs will sustain employment and productivity growth. Improving the education system is a long-term mission and involves raising its pedagogical strength and orientation towards professional needs. A social welfare system dominated by pensions has not been able to prevent a steep hike in poverty among children and the young, risking long-term harm to well-being. Pursuing recent steps towards a better targeted social protection, accompanied by support programmes for jobseekers, will provide a reliable safety net and reduce poverty.
This Working Paper relates to the 2018 OECD Economic Survey of Greece. (http://www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-greece.htm).

Generative artificial intelligence (AI) presents myriad opportunities for integrity actors—anti-corruption agencies, supreme audit institutions, internal audit bodies and others—to enhance the impact of their work, particularly through the use of large language models (LLMS). As this type of AI becomes increasingly mainstream, it is critical for integrity actors to understand both where generative AI and LLMs can add the most value and the risks they pose. To advance this understanding, this paper draws on input from the OECD integrity and anti-corruption communities and provides a snapshot of the ways these bodies are using generative AI and LLMs, the challenges they face, and the insights these experiences offer to similar bodies in other countries. The paper also explores key considerations for integrity actors to ensure trustworthy AI systems and responsible use of AI as their capacities in this area develop.

The rapid acceleration in the pace of AI innovation in recent years and the advent of content generating capabilities (Generative AI or GenAI) have increased interest in AI innovation in finance, in part due to the user-friendliness and intuitive interface of GenAI tools. The use of AI in financial markets involving full end-to-end automation without any human intervention remains largely at development phase, but its wider deployment could amplify risks already present in financial markets and give rise to new challenges. This paper presents recent evolutions in AI in finance and potential risks and discusses whether policy makers may need to reinforce policies and strengthen protection against these risks.

The Domain Name System’s need to have unique identifiers, and a consequent need for there to be a single registry for each name, means that any registry can exercise a degree of monopoly power over the domain for which it has responsibility.
Doctors are distributed unequally across different regions in virtually all OECD countries, and this causes concern about how to continue to ensure access to health services everywhere. In particular access to services in rural regions is the focus of attention of policymakers, although in some countries, poor urban and sub-urban regions pose a challenge as well. Despite numerous efforts this mal-distribution of physician supply persists. This working paper first examines the drivers of the location choice of physicians, and second, it examines policy responses in a number of OECD countries...

People’s ability to access essential services is key to their labour market and social inclusion. An important dimension of accessibility is physical accessibility, but little cross-country evidence exists on how close people live to the services facilities they need. This paper helps to address this gap, focusing on three types of essential services: Public Employment Services, primary schools and Early Childhood Education and Care. It collects and maps data on the location of these services for a selection of OECD countries and links them with data on population and transport infrastructure. This allows to compute travel times to the nearest service facility and to quantify disparities in accessibility at the regional level. The results highlight substantial inequalities in accessibility of essential services across and within countries. Although large parts of the population can easily reach these services in most countries, some people are relatively underserved. This is particularly the case in non-metropolitan and low-income regions. At the same time, accessibility seems to be associated with the potential demand for these services once accounting for other regional economic and demographic characteristics.

Regulatory authorities in most OECD countries have traditionally adopted a national geographic area focus when framing the geographic scope of telecommunications markets. Arguments stemming from market analysis economics suggest that differential regulation be considered between geographic areas where facility-based competition has developed and where it has not. The aim of this paper is to appraise the case for, and developments in, the use of sub-national geographically segmented regulation for fixed telecommunications networks.

A fragmented school network resulting from demographic shifts and regional economic developments can place a significant financial burden on education systems across OECD Member and non-Member countries. This is the case in Latvia, which has made the reorganisation of its school network a policy priority. The Latvian Ministry of Education and Science (MoES) is working jointly with municipalities to ensure high-quality education for every child regardless of school location. On this basis, the OECD Directorate for Education and Skills and OECD Centre for Entrepreneurship, SMEs, Regions and Cities provided technical assistance to Latvia through capacity building workshops and the co-construction of a geospatial simulation model to identify schools to be considered for closing or merging. This report presents the key findings of the geospatial modelling, confirming there indeed is considerable scope for consolidating the school network and offers concrete policy recommendations for MoES and education stakeholders to consider for advancing Latvia’s school network reorganisation initiative.

The potential growth rate of the economy has been low for a long time and the crisis has had a further adverse impact. The meagre growth performance mainly reflects low growth in a number of services sectors; most manufacturing sectors, by contrast, expanded at a rapid pace in the years preceding the recent crisis, on the back of robust foreign demand. The challenge is to consolidate the past success of the export sector and to broaden it to the whole economy by making the policy framework more conducive to innovation and structural change. Specifically, product market regulation needs to be eased to prevent it from sheltering uncompetitive industries; the framework conditions for innovation need to be improved; the education system needs to be reformed further to supply a sufficiently large pool of highly qualified labour; and immigration policy needs to become more favourable to the immigration of high-skilled. Strengthening Germany’s attractiveness as a location for investment would contribute to a higher trend growth rate through lifting barriers to higher growth, which are particular binding in the non-traded goods sector. This would reduce Germany’s current account surplus and make a contribution to reduce global imbalances. This paper relates to the 2010 OECD Economic Survey of Germany (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/germany).

International university co-operation is in a constant state of metamorphosis. Its future rests upon extraneous forces such as globalization and internationalization and also upon those who make policy decisions. Many international university organizations are auditing their programs and initiatives to such a degree that the cost effectiveness of such quality control measures are put into question. Institutional leaders are often forced to contend with low morale, trying their best to bolster a sense of hope, meaning and potential to international initiatives that are more likely to be financially sound than altruistic. Although current data suggest that bottom-top approaches to international co-operation are more likely to withstand the changes of time, it is often left to top-bottom directives to set a course for action. Drawing upon a specific and recently updated research study, this paper examines salient programs and initiatives that would otherwise not exist had it not been for certain policy makers who have actively advocated and promoted international university co-operation. It is in this vein that Wertheimer’s Gestalt approach is re-examined....

French
Ireland’s banking crisis, one of the most severe in the OECD area, and the associated economic recession have taken a heavy toll on public finances. Large public deficits have accumulated since 2008 and net public debt, which had been eliminated, has soared once again. The rapid deterioration of the fiscal accounts, together with the government guarantee of banks’ liabilities, has led to Ireland losing the confidence of the sovereign bond market and requiring financial assistance from the international community. With one of the highest levels of gross public debt relative to GDP in the OECD, high bond spreads and weak nominal GDP growth, returning to a healthy fiscal position poses a significant challenge. A sustained effort will be needed to eliminate the budget deficit, regain the confidence of financial markets and to seek to increase trend growth through appropriate structural reforms. The economic adjustment programme supported by the IMF and the EU foresees a gradual consolidation of the public finances to stabilise and reduce the debt to GDP ratio and restore fiscal sustainability. The programme builds on significant progress that has already been made to contain the deterioration of fiscal accounts and the government plans to introduce further fiscal adjustment in 2012 and later years in line with the programme. The programme also foresees a strengthening of the fiscal framework, with large institutional changes intended to secure a path of fiscal sustainability in the medium-term. The consolidation effort is also underpinned by efforts to increase public sector efficiency, which provides a growth-friendly avenue for reducing the deficit in a durable way.

This Working Paper relates to the 2011 OECD Economic Survey of Ireland (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/ireland).

This paper reviews the strengths and weaknesses of the Swedish healthcare system and the challenges that it will face in the future. It discusses ways to improve access to primary care, including different methods for paying GPs, whether access is less equitable than in other countries and the role of patient fees. The maximum waiting time guarantee for elective surgery is reviewed, along with ways of reducing regional variations in quality. The extent of decentralisation is questioned, as that may be affecting the quality of care and value for money in some areas, including elderly and psychiatric care. Mechanisms for improving the hospital sector are also examined including fee-for-service (DRG) payment mechanisms and whether for-profit hospitals would help. Finally, it considers ways to make financing more stable and sustainable.
The Czech education system is performing reasonably well. Secondary-school participation and completion rates have traditionally been high, and continue to be so. PISA results are above average, with Czech students performing among the best in the OECD in problem-solving abilities, particularly for mathematics and science. Though tertiary attainment is low in the population as a whole, the enrolment rate is increasing rapidly. At just a little below 5% of GDP, total education spending is low compared with other OECD countries.
Irish youth was hit hard by the crisis. Many young workers have remained unemployed for a long time and, unless it is tackled promptly, this issue will become one of the most enduring legacies of the recession. New labourmarket policy initiatives have been introduced recently, but more will be needed to limit scarring effects and keep youth connected so that they can get back to work as soon as the recovery strengthens. For many young workers learning new skills is the way to get ready. The Irish economy is shifting away from bricks and mortar towards knowledge-based services, and those previously employed in construction-related activities need to acquire the skills and competencies required in these expanding sectors. For those who have already drifted into more marginalised environments, a longer process of rehabilitation will be necessary to escape poverty and social exclusion. This chapter recommends focusing limited fiscal resources on policies empirically-proven to help regain employment; this will require systematic and rigorous evaluation of labour-market programmes and policy decisions to close down ineffective schemes while strengthening successful ones.

Ageing involves not one but several transitions. People move from working to not working, from relying upon labour income to relying on transfers. They also tend to live in smaller households, not only because any children will have moved away but also because, at some stage, a spouse dies. People move homes and sometimes they move back to live with their now grown-up children.

This paper examines the wellbeing of people as they pass through the later stages of their life and through different labour market statuses and domestic statuses. It examines and compares nine countries – Canada, Finland, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States. It draws particularly from a special analysis of micro-data sets that report on incomes, but it complements this with an analysis of data on wealth, on consumption, on housing and on the use of in-kind services provided by the state.

The paper is original in more than one way. First, its analysis is based upon the ...

While young people are leaving education more qualified than ever before, in many countries they are struggling to compete for jobs in the labour market. Compared to older workers, young people tend to have less work experience, fewer useful contacts and less know-how about how to get a job. Young people face additional challenges in preparing for online recruitment processes. There are however, things that secondary schools can do to help students get a job and ongoing analysis of national longitudinal surveys in four countries reveal associations with better employment outcomes. This paper looks at how school can:

  • Demystify the recruitment process
  • Teach students how to apply for jobs
  • Help them prepare to succeed in job interviews.

After three decades of public financial management reforms, around three quarters of OECD countries are using accrual accounting with some adopting accrual budgeting as well (OECD Accruals 2016 Survey). This is however a sensitive time: questions are increasingly being raised on the cost and usefulness of accrual reforms, whose impacts on public management and performance are not obvious to many stakeholders. Against this background, this study brings together the experience of eleven countries that have introduced accrual accounting and/or accrual budgeting into their public sector. It aims at summarizing initial objectives of accrual reforms, countries’ own assessment of how well these objectives have been achieved and propose recommendations on how finance ministries should go about achieving maximum outcomes from their transition to accrual accounting.

JEL code : H50, H60, H83
Keywords : accrual accounting, accrual reform, budgeting, transparency, performance                                                     

This note updates Trade facilitation and the COVID-19 pandemic from April 2020 with insights into the evolution of new border protocols and trade facilitation measures impacting traders since COVID-19 and exploring what more can be done to prepare for the next stages of the pandemic as uncertainty persists. It highlights the importance of transparency and availability of timely trade-related information in mapping bottlenecks and risks, as well as the importance of trade facilitation measures in supporting business recovery and resilience across different goods sectors. Finally, it provides some preliminary insights for trade facilitation with respect to the distribution of vaccines.

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