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The Western Balkans region has come a long way over the last two decades in achieving economic and social progress. Its people are the region’s greatest asset. Yet faced with a lack of opportunities many, particularly the young, decide to emigrate. To make the most of its future the region must invest in its attractiveness as a place to live, work and invest in.

This report comes as a follow-up to the earlier publication Multi-dimensional Review of the Western Balkans: Assessing Opportunities and Constraints. It builds on an extensive peer-learning process that brought together experts from across the region and beyond. The report provides suggestions and recommendations for three strategic priorities that can help create opportunities and boost the quality of life. First, better education and more competencies are the basis for raising productivity, creating jobs, encouraging civic participation and making the region an attractive destination. Second, social cohesion is the bedrock of resilient societies and requires stronger labour market policies and effective social protection that can cushion people’s hardship and provide them with new opportunities. Third, cleaner air and more sustainable energy are indispensable for boosting the region’s quality of life and economic opportunities.

Moldova is largely dependent on fossil fuel and electricity imports, with the vast majority of its natural gas imports coming from the Russian Federation. Moldova has made considerable efforts to diversify their supply sources and increase the security of both electricity and gas supply. Further integration with Europe for both gas and electricity imports is ongoing as Moldova prioritises moving away from Russian sources of energy. The March 2022 emergency synchronisation with ENTSO-E, triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has pushed Moldova closer to full electricity trade with Europe.

Since Moldova signed an Association Agreement with the European Union in 2014, it has been working to adopt core EU legislation. Moldova’s National Energy Strategy for 2030 reflects this work, with key government priorities including: ensuring the security of energy supply; further developing competitive markets and integration on a regional and European level; and ensuring the sustainability of the energy sector while mitigating the effects of climate change. Increasing the share of renewables in Moldova’s energy mix remains key to meeting the country’s priorities as it aims to enhance regional and European integration.

This report assesses the energy sector and the related challenges facing Moldova, and it proposes policy recommendations to improve energy security, support the development of free and competitive energy markets, and accelerate its transition to a more sustainable, clean and efficient energy system.

Mexico is recasting its entire energy system, in line with a far-reaching Energy Reform package adopted by the government in 2013. How might the multiple changes being implemented today change the energy scene of tomorrow?

This analysis provides a comprehensive assessment of Mexico’s energy demand and supply outlook to 2040.

The report:

• Maps out the implications of the Reforma Energética across the energy economy.
• Explores the ambition of a reformed power market to meet rising demand, while tapping Mexico’s abundant renewable resources and reducing the costs of power supply.
• Assesses how and when the new upstream bid rounds can turn around today’s declines in oil and gas output
• Identifies the challenges that remain, while also quantifying the value of Mexico’s energy transformation in a “No Reform Case”.

This publication investigates key aspects surrounding the sustainability of bioeconomy development: the use of biomass as feedstock for future production;  the design and building of biorefineries for the manufacture of a range of fuels, chemicals and materials, and also for electricity generation; and the use of biotechnologies such as synthetic biology, metabolic engineering and gene editing.

Today more than 50 countries have a dedicated bioeconomy strategy or related policies. While the bioeconomy is consistent with sustainability policy (examples are the circular economy, the UN Sustainable Development Goals, green growth, re-industrialisation, rural regeneration, climate change mitigation), synergies must be ensured to avoid over-exploitation of natural resources and conflicting global needs.

Energy efficiency improvements over the last 25 years saved a cumulative USD 5.7 trillion in energy expenditures. This virtual supply of energy generates multiple benefits for governments, businesses and households, including greater energy security from reduced dependence on energy imports and billions of tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions reductions.

Strengthening our understanding of the energy efficiency market and the prospects over the medium term is becoming increasingly important. The 2015 Energy Efficiency Market Report (EEMR) evaluates the impact of energy efficiency in the energy system and assesses the scale and outlook for further energy efficiency investment using detailed country-by-country energy efficiency indicator data and IEA expertise.

This year’s report includes an in-depth look into the buildings energy efficiency market and the electricity sector. Energy efficiency investments in the buildings sector totalled between USD 90 billion in 2014. In the electricity sector, energy efficiency has proved critical in flattening electricity consumption in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development member countries, driving utilities to adapt their business models.

Promoting and expanding energy efficiency markets is a worldwide phenomenon, and EEMR 2015 presents a number of case studies at the national, state and municipal level. These include examinations of Latin America’s two largest economies, Brazil and Mexico, which are looking to efficiency to boost productivity and social development. Energy-exporting countries like Saudi Arabia and the Russian Federation are also increasingly turning to efficiency to increase exports and reduce the costs of growing domestic energy consumption. In addition to national governments, major urban areas such as Tokyo, Seoul and Paris are increasingly enabling energy efficiency investment.

Energy efficiency improvements over the last 25 years saved a cumulative USD 5.7 trillion in energy expenditures. This virtual supply of energy generates multiple benefits for governments, businesses and households, including greater energy security from reduced dependence on energy imports and billions of tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions reductions.

Strengthening our understanding of the energy efficiency market and the prospects over the medium term is becoming increasingly important. The 2015 Energy Efficiency Market Report (EEMR) evaluates the impact of energy efficiency in the energy system and assesses the scale and outlook for further energy efficiency investment using detailed country-by-country energy efficiency indicator data and IEA expertise.

This year’s report includes an in-depth look into the buildings energy efficiency market and the electricity sector. Energy efficiency investments in the buildings sector totalled between USD 90 billion in 2014. In the electricity sector, energy efficiency has proved critical in flattening electricity consumption in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development member countries, driving utilities to adapt their business models.

Promoting and expanding energy efficiency markets is a worldwide phenomenon, and EEMR 2015 presents a number of case studies at the national, state and municipal level. These include examinations of Latin America’s two largest economies, Brazil and Mexico, which are looking to efficiency to boost productivity and social development. Energy-exporting countries like Saudi Arabia and the Russian Federation are also increasingly turning to efficiency to increase exports and reduce the costs of growing domestic energy consumption. In addition to national governments, major urban areas such as Tokyo, Seoul and Paris are increasingly enabling energy efficiency investment.
 

As the fastest growing sector and accounting for around a fifth of worldwide electricity production, renewable energy has emerged as a significant source in the global mix. Much of this success has stemmed from significant policy effort and economic incentives at the country level, particularly in the OECD. Massive investment has taken place on a global scale, with costs for most technologies falling steadily. As a result, renewable energy technologies are becoming more economically attractive in an increasing range of countries and circumstances, with China, India and Brazil emerging as major deployment grounds. Going forward, the continued growth of renewable energy will depend upon the evolution of policy and market frameworks. Yet, further technology development, grid and system integration issues and the availability of finance will also weigh as key variables.

This new annual IEA publication, Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2012, provides a key benchmark, assessing the current state of play of renewable energy, identifying the main drivers and barriers to deployment and projecting renewable energy electricity capacity and generation through 2017. Starting with an in-depth analysis of key country-level markets, which represent 80% of renewable electricity generation today, the report examines the prospects for renewable energy finance and provides a global outlook for each renewable electricity technology. The report analyses enablers and barriers to renewable energy deployment in detail, examining larger electricity market issues that have implications for renewable development, including country-level demand projections, anticipated changes in conventional generating capacity and power system integration.

In early 2016 crude oil prices for WTI and Brent fell below $30/bbl for the first time since 2003, having halved in just a few months. In a departure from the past four decades, producers continue to produce and sell what they can, letting the market set the price. Low prices are a major short-term benefit to consumers and will provide a boost to demand growth. But if low prices persist, investments in new supply are cut back – as has been demonstrated recently by a succession of announcements from major companies. Unless the heavily oversupplied oil market can return to balance and high levels of stocks start to diminish, oil prices cannot rise to the levels necessary to support investments in the higher cost resources that must be developed to meet rising oil demand. The result could be a sharp rise in oil prices that risks curtailing economic growth.

In the 2016 edition of its Medium-Term Oil Market Report, the International Energy Agency analyses the key factors impacting the supply and demand for oil from today out to 2021. These include: high-cost supply resilience from light, tight oil producers in the United States; the lifting of nuclear sanctions on Iran; the impact on demand of lower oil prices – including recent subsidy changes in the Middle East; and the timing of the oil market’s return to balance. This report is published during one of the most fascinating periods in oil market history.

The recent oil market sell‑off, brought on by deep imbalances after years of record-high prices, will likely prove a milestone in the history of oil.  However prices eventually evolve, markets may never be the same.  This edition of the Medium-Term Oil Market Report sizes up the magnitude of this transformation so far and sketches the oil landscape at the 2020 horizon.

It is not just oil price signals that have changed, but also the market’s responsiveness to them. On the supply side, this Report’s forecast reflects not just lower price assumptions, but also the high price-sensitivity of US light tight oil compared to conventional crude, as well as OPEC’s embrace of market forces in late 2014 in a bid for market share.  On the demand front, it shows how the response to lower prices will differ in a low-growth, deflationary environment compared to a higher-growth one.

Not all factors can be easily predicted. Much hangs on the outcome of talks between Iran and the “P5+1” on that of Islamist violence in oil-producing countries, and on future relations between Russia and the West. Such geopolitical risk factors are themselves a defining feature of the oil market for the medium term.

As in previous editions, this Report also offers key projections of global refining capacity, crude trade flows and product supply, this year with special focus on the impact of changing bunker fuel legislation.

Rarely has the oil market faced changes as sweeping as today. That makes the insights from the IEA 2015 Medium-Term Oil Market Report all the more timely and valuable.

As the supply revolution enters a new phase, oil’s role in the global energy mix is being redefined. More than ever, getting a handle on these developments is key to ensuring that energy security is maintained or enhanced, investment is appropriately targeted and resources are optimally leveraged. That makes the Medium-Term Oil Market Report's insights into the oil market for the next five years essential reading for energy industry and market stakeholders, policy makers and all those interested in energy and the broader economy.

This book examines the non-conventional supply revolution that is transforming the North American oil patch that has been widely recognised as a game changer for the oil markets and looks at how this transformation is playing out against the backdrop of other relevant market developments. It asks how long can the US oil boom can be expected to last, and what will it take for other countries to replicate this success story.

It explores what is holding up OPEC supply growth, what OPEC production capacity will look like by the end of the decade, and how the market will absorb growing condensate and natural gas liquids supplies in the United States and elsewhere. It examines whether the recovery in global oil demand will gain momentum, or if “peak demand” is just around the corner and whether oil is losing its grip on transport fuels.

It also examines whether US progress towards oil independence is a step forward or a step back for crude markets and for Middle East downstream forays. And finally it explores who will be the winners and losers of global refining capacity growth, and how will it affect the way refined products are delivered to consumers.

The global oil market faces unprecedented challenges and opportunities.  One thing seems clear: The oil market as we know it today will have transformed in five years. The IEA’s 2013 Medium-Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR) sketches out the likely changes to 2018 and what they mean for the world. Its forecasts are based on hard facts and the most likely assumptions: current expectations of economic growth, known government policies likely to affect oil supply and demand, regulatory changes that may impact oil market participation and oil price formation, oil field decline trends, and confirmed investments in the upstream, midstream and downstream.

Last year’s MTOMR challenged conventional wisdom with its analysis of the huge potential unlocked by the North American supply revolution and the Iraqi resurgence. Building on this foundation, the 2013 MTOMR turns to the formidable challenges facing the development of these new resources, while further exploring the transformation it brings to all aspects of the market. The impact of political turmoil in the Middle East and Africa is also assessed.

On the demand front, the Report examines the continuing redistribution of demand by region, fuel-on-fuel competition between oil and natural gas, the short-term prospects for efficiency gains, and the shifting composition of the demand barrel. The MTOMR also pays close attention to the entire supply chain, including changes in refining capacity, the emergence of refining ‘mega-hubs,’ and the changing role of trading houses and midstream companies in a rapidly evolving product distribution system – and how that may affect product availability and prices.

The MTOMR’s goal is not only to get the numbers right but also to spot emerging shifts that may temporarily or durably affect the market. That makes it a unique tool for anyone engaged in policy or investment decision-making in the energy sphere, and those more broadly interested in the oil market and the global economy.

Supply shortfalls – from the Libyan civil war in 2011 and international sanctions on Iran in 2012 to a swathe of unplanned non-OPEC output stoppages – have buffeted the oil market, sending prices near 2008 highs and rekindling debate on the role of speculation in fuelling volatility. There have also been success stories. Growth in North American light, tight oil and non-conventional supply has reached game-changing levels. Iraqi production has scaled new heights, the Libyan production recovery in 2012 defied expectations and Saudi output surged to 30-year highs. On the demand front, the economic recovery has lost momentum. Market share continues to shift from mature to newly industrialised economies, but amid persistent concerns about the health of the former; China, the leading engine of oil demand growth of the last 15 years, is giving signs of slowdown.

Those developments have challenged earlier assumptions and significantly changed the oil market outlook for the next five years. The IEA Medium-Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR) – companion to the monthly OMR – draws their implications for the future. It provides detailed projections for oil supply at field level, crude quality trends, demand by product, refined product output and oil investments through 2017. It examines oil price formation, regulatory changes, OPEC dynamics and the future of spare capacity – while also reviewing the contribution of new supplies from deepwater, light tight oil, biofuel and natural gas liquids. It explores how market changes are reshaping the refining industry – and what that means for trade flows.

At a time of heightened economic and geopolitical risk, MTOMR is essential reading for anyone interested in oil market dynamics and in understanding the oil market context in which these risks are playing out.

The context for global gas markets is changing rapidly, raising new challenges for industry and policy makers alike. The slowdown in Asian gas demand that started in 2014 intensified in 2015, prompting a rare decline in the region’s LNG imports and pushing prices to new lows. As the world prepares to welcome a large wave of new LNG projects, market players are left with one burning question: where will all that gas go?

Heavily oversupplied markets in the short term have triggered sharp investment cuts across the industry; if under-investment persists it could sow the seeds of a classic bust-boom commodity cycle. Unlike previous downturns, however, this time there is greater uncertainty about future demand prospects.

Caught between cheap coal and continued policy support for renewables, global gas demand has so far failed to react to the steep fall in prices. Industry participants are now wondering whether this is temporary or whether it marks the beginning of structurally lower growth for gas demand. How countries reassess environmental policies in the aftermath of the Paris Agreement will be key to determining what comes next for gas.

The Medium-Term Gas Market Report 2016 assesses these trends and provides a detailed analysis of global demand supply and trade development through 2021. It also explores the links between today’s oversupply and emerging shifts in trade patterns, pricing mechanisms and market structures that have the potential to substantially reshape the global gas industry over the next few years.