Medium-Term Oil Market Report

International Energy Agency

2310-4651 (online)
2310-4643 (print)
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The Medium-Term Oil Market Report provides IEA forecasts on oil markets for the coming five years as well as an in-depth analysis of recent developments in global oil demand, supply and trade.

Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2014

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International Energy Agency

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17 June 2014
9789264211728 (PDF) ;9789264211711(print)

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As the supply revolution enters a new phase, oil’s role in the global energy mix is being redefined. More than ever, getting a handle on these developments is key to ensuring that energy security is maintained or enhanced, investment is appropriately targeted and resources are optimally leveraged. That makes the Medium-Term Oil Market Report's insights into the oil market for the next five years essential reading for energy industry and market stakeholders, policy makers and all those interested in energy and the broader economy.

This book examines the non-conventional supply revolution that is transforming the North American oil patch that has been widely recognised as a game changer for the oil markets and looks at how this transformation is playing out against the backdrop of other relevant market developments. It asks how long can the US oil boom can be expected to last, and what will it take for other countries to replicate this success story.

It explores what is holding up OPEC supply growth, what OPEC production capacity will look like by the end of the decade, and how the market will absorb growing condensate and natural gas liquids supplies in the United States and elsewhere. It examines whether the recovery in global oil demand will gain momentum, or if "peak demand" is just around the corner and whether oil is losing its grip on transport fuels.

It also examines whether US progress towards oil independence is a step forward or a step back for crude markets and for Middle East downstream forays. And finally it explores who will be the winners and losers of global refining capacity growth, and how will it affect the way refined products are delivered to consumers.

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Table of Contents

Foreword 3
Acknowledgements 4
Executive summary 11
-The non-conventional supply revolution enters a new phase 13
-OPEC supply experiencing turbulence 14
-The policy ground is shifting under the biofuel industry 15
-An inflexion point in demand growth 16
-OPEC spare production capacity may be lower than it appears 18
-In crude trade, all roads lead to Asia 19
-The refining industry enters the age of globalisation 20
-Is a gasoline glut the latest threat to supply? 22
-Key policy outcomes loom large in the medium term 22
-Other market-related medium-term developments 23
1. Demand 24
-Summary 24
-Overview 25
-OECD 28
--Americas 29
--Europe 30
--Asia Oceania 30
-Non-OECD 31
--Asia 34
--Middle East 36
--Latin America 40
--Former Soviet Union 41
--Africa 42
--Non-OECD Europe 42
-Transport sector 43
-Power generation sector 51
-Residential sector 54
-Petrochemical sector 54
2. Supply 58
-Summary 58
-Trends in global supply 59
-OPEC supply 60
--Capacity growth centered in the Middle East 63
--OPEC’s African producers face myriad problems 71
--Production capacity in Venezuela and Ecuador on upward trend 74
--OPEC gas liquids supply 75
-Non-OPEC supply 77
--Revisions 79
--OECD Americas 79
--North Sea 87
--Latin America 89
--Former Soviet Union 92
--Non-OECD Asia 95
--Middle East 97
--Africa 98
-Biofuels supply 105
--The policy ground is shifting under the biofuels industry 106
--Advanced biofuels industry 113
3. Crude trade 115
-Summary 115
-Overview and methodology 115
-Regional developments 117
--Middle East 117
--Africa 118
--The Former Soviet Union 119
--Latin America 120
--OECD Americas 120
--Europe 122
--OECD Asia Oceania 122
--Non-OECD Asia 122
--Implications for the tanker market 123
4. Refining and product supply 125
-Summary 125
-Refinery investment overview 127
-Refinery utilisation and throughputs 128
Product supply balances 130
--Light distillates 131
--Middle distillates 132
--Fuel 133
-Regional developments 135
--OECD Americas 135
--Europe 137
--OECD Asia Oceania 139
--China 140
--Non-OECD Other Asia 142
--Middle East 144
--Latin America 147
--Africa 149
5. Tables 151

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