Congo
Congo’s economic outlook is still quite good but external factors are a major threat. Gross domestic product (GDP) should grow 5.1% in 2013 and 5.3% in 2014. Apart from oil, the main pillars of growth are forestry, transport and telecommunications, and continued government investment in the public sector. These growth rates will depend on faster reforms and proper management of risks from a deteriorating world economic outlook, especially lower demand for oil and thus lower prices. This shows how vulnerable the economy is and the need to diversify it by developing the non-oil private sector.
Les perspectives économiques du Congo demeurent favorables mais les conditions extérieures constituent un risque important. La croissance du PIB réel devrait s’établir à 5.1 % en 2013 et 5.3 % en 2014. Outre le pétrole, les principaux moteurs de la croissance sont : i) les activités forestières, les transports et télécommunications ; et ii) la poursuite du programme d’investissements publics de l’État. La réalisation de ces taux de croissance nécessite néanmoins l’accélération du rythme des réformes et une gestion correcte des risques liés à la détérioration des perspectives de l’économie mondiale, notamment la baisse de la demande et des cours mondiaux de pétrole. Cette menace met en évidence la fragilité de l’économie congolaise et la nécessité d’une diversification grâce au développement du secteur privé non pétrolier.
The Congo Republic’s economic prospects look good even if Europe’s debt crisis is a threat. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 5.7% for 2012 and 4.7% for 2013 is predicted – after a 5.3% increase in 2011. The increases are dependent on at least half of the 16 factories being built at the Brazzaville industrial zone coming into full production and on new investment by the state which envisages a real increase of 55% in capital spending in 2012. A slowdown in developed countries will hit growth, however. The crisis in Europe has highlighted the fragility of Congo’s economic situation and the need to promote the private sector.
Les perspectives économiques du Congo demeurent favorables, mais elles pourraient être assombries par la crise de la dette souveraine européenne. Les prévisions pour 2012 et 2013 tablent sur un taux de croissance du PIB réel de 5.7% en 2012 et 4.7% en 2013, contre 5.3% en 2011. Elles sont basées sur l’entrée en pleine production d’au moins la moitié des seize usines en cours d’implantation dans la zone industrielle de Brazzaville et la poursuite du programme d’investissements de l’État, qui prévoit une hausse réelle de 55% des dépenses en capital en 2012. Toutefois, si les risques de décélération dans les pays avancés devaient se réaliser, la croissance pourrait être ralentie. Ces événements mettent en évidence la fragilité de la situation économique du Congo et la nécessité de promouvoir le développement du secteur privé.
Congo’s economic performance in 2010 owes a great deal to the increase in its oil production. The latter reached a record level, estimated at 115 million barrels compared to 99 million in 2009. Fiscal reform and debt relief obtained under the HIPC Initiative also consolidated fundamental indicators and improved the budgetary balance. The result was a strong 10.2% growth rate in 2010, with 8.4% expected in 2011. These growth rates nevertheless remain fragile. They depend too heavily on the international oil market and maintenance of a high level of oil production. Medium-term forecasts show that oil production will gradually diminish unless new reserves are discovered. Diversification of the economy remains a crucial issue. Construction, public works and telecommunications continue to thrive. The forestry sector seems to be recovering after having been penalised by the global crisis. Increased demand from Asian countries, particularly China, which is the leading buyer of Congolese timber, is ensuring the industry's survival.
The Republic of Congo has made significant progress in restoring internal political peace and applying reforms launched under the three-year programme agreed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as part of the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF). President Denis Sassou Nguesso was re-elected in 2009 for another seven-year term in a vote disputed by the opposition. Despite the world crisis, the economy grew strongly (7.6%), driven mainly by oil production and the construction sector. Forestry and primary timber-processing was badly hit, though, by a drop in external demand and in export prices. Regardless, gross domestic product (GDP) growth remained largely sustained by exports and investment, and should increase to 11.9% in 2010 thanks to projected higher oil production.