Guinea-Bissau

A evolução macroeconómica da Guiné-Bissau tem sido afetada pelo golpe de Estado ocorrido em 12 de Abril de 2012. A taxa de crescimento da economia em 2012 deverá ser de -1.5%, contra 5.3% em 2011. Esta desaceleração explica-se pela queda registada na produção e no preço da castanha de caju nos mercados internacionais. A castanha de caju contribui, em média, em 30% para o valor acrescentado do sector primário. O seu preço médio de venda, que se situava nos 1.350 dólares americanos (USD), por tonelada, em 2011, fixou-se, em termos médios, em 1 081 USD, por tonelada, em 2012. Para 2013 e 2014, as taxas esperadas de crescimento real do PIB são, respectivamente, 4.2% e 3.5%. A inflação, que atingiu 5.0% em 2011, devido à alta registada nos preços dos produtos importados deverá ajustar-se dada a esperada evolução macroeconómica. A retoma gradual das actividades e o abastecimento adequado do mercado interno deverão fazer baixar a inflação para cerca de 2.1% em 2012. Para 2013 e 2014, a inflação estimada é de, 3.3% e 2.5%, respectivamente.

L’évolution macroéconomique de la Guinée-Bissau a été affectée par le coup d’État intervenu le 12 avril 2012. Le taux de croissance économique en 2012 devrait s’établir à -1.5 % du produit intérieur brut (PIB) contre 5.3 % en 2011. Ce ralentissement s’explique principalement par le recul de la production et la baisse du prix de la noix de cajou sur les marchés internationaux. La noix de cajou contribue à hauteur de 30 % en moyenne à la valeur ajoutée du secteur primaire. Son prix moyen de vente, qui était de 1 350 USD par tonne en 2011 s’est fixé en moyenne à 1 081 USD par tonne en 2012. Pour 2013 et 2014, les taux de croissance du PIB réel sont attendus respectivement à 4.2 % et 3.5 %. L’inflation, qui a atteint 5 % en 2011 en raison de la hausse du prix des produits importés, devrait s’ajuster compte tenu des évolutions macroéconomiques attendues. La reprise progressive des activités et l’approvisionnement suffisant du marché interne devraient ramener l’inflation autour de 2.1 % en 2012. Pour 2013 et 2014, l’inflation est estimée à 3.3 % et 2.5 % respectivement.

The country’s macroeconomic situation was affected by a coup d’état on 12 April 2012, and the economy is estimated to have contracted by 1.5% of gross domestic product (GDP) that year after having grown by 5.3% in 2011. The slowdown was mainly due to lower production and world prices of cashew nuts, which account for some 30% of the added value in the primary sector. The average price of cashew nuts fell from USD 1 350 (US dollars) a tonne in 2011 to USD 1 081 in 2012. Real GDP growth is expected to recover to 4.2% in 2013 and 3.5% in 2014. Inflation, which was 5.0% in 2011 due to higher import prices, should ease, thanks to expected macroeconomic evolutions, to 2.1% in 2012 (with 3.3% in 2013 and 2.5% in 2014) as the economy slowly recovers and domestic markets are adequately supplied.

A Guiné-Bissau registou um notável desempenho económico em 2011. Em termos macroeconómicos, a taxa de crescimento do PIB atingiu 5.1% (contra 3.5% em 2010) impulsionada pelas exportações, em particular de castanha de caju. Este fruto oleaginoso foi responsável por quase 81% das exportações do país, no período 2009/2010, e atingiu 90% em 2011 devido a uma colheita excepcional. No entanto, com a crise da dívida na Europa, espera-se uma queda dos preços mundiais deste produto e, em consequência, o crescimento deve cair para 4.6% em 2012 e 4.9% em 2013.

La Guinée-Bissau a réalisé des performances économiques remarquables pour 2011. Sur le plan macroéconomique, le taux de croissance du PIB a atteint 5.1 %, (contre 3.5 % en 2010) stimulé par les exportations - en particulier celles de noix de cajou. Ce fruit oléagineux constituait près de 81 % des exportations du pays sur la période 2009/2010 et a atteint 90 % en 2011 en raison d’une récolte exceptionnelle. Cependant, avec la crise de la dette en Europe, il est attendu une baisse du cours mondial de ce produit. En conséquence, la croissance devrait redescendre à 4.6 % en 2012 puis 4.9 % en 2013.

Guinea Bissau produced a strong economic performance in 2011. Growth in gross domestic product (GDP) rose to 5.1% from 3.5% in 2010, helped by exports, particularly of cashew nuts. Exports of the latter accounted for 81% of all exports in 2009/10 and reached 90% in 2011, thanks to an exceptional harvest. But the debt crisis in Europe is expected to lead to a drop in world prices for the nuts and, consequently, growth should fall to 4.6% in 2012, rising to 4.9% in 2013.

Economic growth in Guinea-Bissau picked up slightly to 3.6% in 2010 from 3.0% in 2009 thanks to higher cashew nut prices, sustained construction of private housing and major infrastructure projects. The indirect impact of the global economic crisis, felt mainly through lower government export revenues and remittances, has been mitigated by a strong increase in the world demand for cashew nuts. Heightened political instability, however, resulted in the withdrawal of budget support from the European Union (EU), one of the country's main development partners. Economic growth is expected to increase to 4.5% and 4.8% in 2011 and 2012, sustained by increased agricultural production, cashew nut exports and foreign direct investment (FDI) in mining projects and infrastructure. The major downside risk is persistent political instability, which could result in a further decrease in donor funding, hampering the execution of the public investment programme in the coming years. In the medium term, inflation is expected to remain within the Central Bank of West African States' (BCEAO) target of 3%, maintaining the good performance of 2010.

La Guinée dispose d’un potentiel économique considérable, varié et inexploité. Pourtant, le pays peine à décoller. La croissance économique est structurellement faible et lente, avec des poussées inflationnistes. D’autre part, le pays est frappé de plein fouet par la crise pétrolière (2007/08), alimentaire (2008) et la crise financière (2009).

Economic growth in Guinea-Bissau declined to 2.9% in 2009 from 3.3% in 2008, as a result of political instability and the late arrival of development assistance. However, economic activity was sustained by an exceptional cashew nut harvest. Because of its isolation from the world economy, the global economic and financial crisis did not have a significant direct impact on the economy, although it did on government export revenues and remittances. Growth is expected to increase to 3.4% and 4% respectively in 2010 and 2011, as a result of increased agricultural production and donor support. The major downside risk is new political instability. For the mid term, inflation is expected to remain within the Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO) boundary of 3%, up from a negative rate in 2009.

The Constitution and legislation of Guinea-Bissau prohibit all forms of discrimination on the grounds of gender, race or religion. In practice, the government is not in a position to enforce the principle of non-discrimination, and violence and discrimination against women remain serious problems. Traditionally, women do most of the agricultural work, but in certain ethnic groups, they do not have access to land or property.