Zambia

En 1991, la Zambie a engagé de profondes réformes qui l’ont faite passer du statut d’économie à planification centralisée à celui d’économie de marché. Ce spectaculaire changement, qui a nécessité de privatiser une activité économique dont près de 80 pour cent relevaient initialement du secteur public et de libéraliser les prix de la plupart des produits de base, a redynamisé l’économie et engendré une croissance satisfaisante pendant la première moitié des années 90. En revanche, la Zambie n’est pas vraiment parvenue à diversifier ses exportations pour réduire sa forte dépendance à l’égard du cuivre, ni à gérer avec davantage d’efficience ses dépenses, dont le financement reste largement tributaire de l’aide extérieure ni, surtout, à faire diminuer la pauvreté. Ces insuffisances tiennent essentiellement aux retards dans la mise en application des réformes structurelles…

In 1991 Zambia started a radical reform path that transformed it from a centrally planned to a market economy. This dramatic change, which entailed privatising the initial close-to-80 per cent share of public economic activity and liberalising prices for most commodities, revived the economy and resulted in a good growth performance for the first half of the 1990s. Nevertheless, the government has not been very successful in diversifying the country’s export base away from its heavy dependency on copper, or managing its expenditures more efficiently, whose funding still strongly rely on foreign assistance, or, and most importantly, reducing poverty. These shortcomings originate mainly from delays in the implementation of structural reforms. Economic performance improved significantly in 2001 — GDP grew by 5.2 per cent — thanks to the recent investments in the privatised copper sector…

AGAINST A BACKDROP OF ECONOMIC decline in the preceding two decades, Zambia achieved its fifth consecutive year of solid growth, with GDP growing at 5.1 per cent in 2004, significantly above the target of 3.5 per cent, as a result of strong copper output and exceptionally good agricultural performance. Strong GDP growth is expected to continue over 2005-06, at about 5 per cent, on account of increasing mining production and continuous efforts to raise agricultural productivity. However, the economy has not diversified...

LA CROISSANCE MODÉRÉE EN 2005 s’est appuyée sur un secteur du cuivre florissant et sur l’essor du tourisme et du BTP. Avec une progression de 4.5 pour cent, la remontée du PIB s’est toutefois avérée plus lente qu’attendu, sous l’effet de la sécheresse qui a touché de nombreuses régions du pays, de la flambée des cours du pétrole importé et des pénuries de carburant, ainsi que d’une politique budgétaire non expansionniste. La stabilité de l’offre de carburant, une pluviosité plus favorable et la poursuite des investissements dans le secteur minier devraient pousser la croissance à respectivement 5 et 5.5 pour cent en 2006 et 2007.

A buoyant copper sector and strong growth in tourism and construction underpinned moderate growth in 2005. GDP growth of 4.5 per cent was, however, slower than expected, reflecting the drought experienced in many parts of the country, the high price of imported oil and fuel shortages, and a nonexpansionary fiscal policy. Stable fuel supplies, better rainfall and continuing investment in mining are expected to boost growth to 5 and 5.5 per cent in...

IN 2007, THE ECONOMY GREW JUST 5.8 per cent in Zambia, down from 6.2 per cent in 2006, primarily due to slower growth in the volume of copper production.The construction sector remained buoyant however, with growth remaining stable in 2007. In 2008 and 2009, the economy is expected to recover to just above 6 per cent growth with a strong increase in copper exports following huge investments in 2006 and 2007. This expansion in volume is expected to offset declining world market prices. On the negative side, adverse weather and increasing power outages at the beginning of 2008 will limit growth in agriculture and manufacturing.

1996: Pension Scheme Regulation Act No. 28; provides for the prudential regulation and supervision of occupational pension plans and requires all plans to be registered with the Registrar of Pensions and Insurance as well as to undergo regular actuarial valuation and financial auditing.

Zambia has a huge agricultural potential, which is still largely untapped, and could play a key role in growth and poverty eradication. Since the early 2000s, the government has implemented important reforms to promote privatisation and trade reforms, leading to higher investment and a strong growth in export crops such as cotton and horticulture. Despite this success, agricultural productivity, especially for food crops, remains low. The study shows that public resources to the agricultural sector have drastically decreased since the early 1990s, while private sector providers have not stepped in to fill the void left by the government disengagement from input supply and marketing. Despite a strong government commitment to reverse this trend, budget figures show that the share in total allocations dropped again in the 2008 budget. The study also argues that evaluations of past donor interventions in agriculture are not very positive, especially in terms of their sustainability. Projects often paid little attention to local absorptive and implementing capacity, had too narrow a focus on production and food security, and lacked an adequate understanding of the socio-economic conditions and behaviour of the target groups. Lack of co-ordination resulted in duplications and insufficient scale. A new generation of donor projects emerged in the early 2000s, with a strong focus on commercialisation and the development of market linkages, especially via contract farming. These projects have borne good results in terms of production volumes, quality standards and access to international commodity chains, as well as farmers’ income. The key challenge for donors is to scale up these success cases and ensure sustainability. The implementation of the Joint Assistance Strategy for Zambia 2007-2010 is an opportunity to achieve a better division of labour, strengthen synergies on the ground and reduce transaction costs for government. Acknowledgements The Zambia

IN 2008, ZAMBIA’S GROWTH DECLINED TO 5.5 per cent from 6.21 per cent in 2007 due mainly to the sharp decline in copper prices. A further reduction in growth to 2.8 per cent is expected for 2009 due to the global recession. The increase in food and oil prices overall were the main causes of the substantial increase in inflation in 2008, which reached 16.6 per cent yearon- year in December. For 2009 and 2010, average inflation is expected to decline to single-digit levels as oil and food prices are expected to remain at their levels of end 2008.

EN 2008, LA CROISSANCE DE LA Zambie s’est tassée à 5.5 pour cent, contre 6.1 pour cent en 2007, surtout en raison du net recul des cours du cuivre. Un nouveau ralentissement de la croissance à 2.8 pour cent est prévu pour 2009 sous l’effet de la récession mondiale. Le bond de l’inflation en 2008, qui avait atteint 16.6 pour cent en glissement annuel en décembre, s’explique essentiellement par la hausse des prix des denrées alimentaires et du pétrole. Sur 2009 et 2010, l’inflation moyenne devrait retomber sous la barre des 10 pour cent, car le pétrole et l’alimentation devraient se maintenir à leur niveau de fin 2008.

Zambia is one of the most urbanised countries in Africa and has achieved a reasonable level of democracy. These factors should benefit women, yet the overall situation in regard to gender equality remains difficult. Tradition imposes many restrictions on women, the effects of which are more pronounced in rural communities than in urban areas.

Après trois décennies de performances économiques plutôt médiocres, la situation macro-économique de la Zambie a changé ces dix dernières années avec une croissance sans précédent du produit intérieur brut (PIB), de 4.8 % en moyenne de 1999 à 2009. La croissance continue d’être tirée par le bâtiment et les travaux publics (BTP), l’exploitation minière et l'agriculture. Mais elle reste sévèrement handicapée par : des goulets d’étranglement de l'offre d'énergie ; les pesanteurs du secteur public, en particulier de l'administration ; les problèmes d’infrastructures ; et le peu de progrès sur la voie des réformes institutionnelles clés. Côté positif, la croissance du PIB est estimée à 6.1 % pour 2009, à peine en légère baisse par rapport aux 6.3 % de 2008, et les prévisions restent assez bonnes pour 2010 (5.5 %) et 2011 (5.7 %).