An extensive literature explains recession risks using a variety of financial and business cycle variables. The problem of selecting a parsimonious set of explanatory variables, which can differ between countries and prediction horizons, is naturally suited to machine-learning methods. The current paper compares models selected by conventional machine-learning methods with a customised algorithm, ‘Doombot’, which uses ‘brute force’ to test combinations of variables and imposes restrictions so that predictions are consistent with a coherent economic narrative. The same algorithms are applied to 20 OECD countries with an emphasis on out-of-sample testing using a rolling origin, including a window for the Global Financial Crisis. Despite the imposition of additional restrictions, Doombot is found to the best performing algorithm. Further testing confirms the imposition of judgmental constraints tends to improve rather than hinder out-of-sample performance. Moreover, these constraints provide a more coherent economic narrative and so mitigate the common ‘black box’ criticism of machine-learning methods.

Interim measures are enforcement tools available to competition authorities to prevent harm to competition that may occur before a final decision on the existence of an infringement. Most often these decisions are related to an ongoing business practice that may potentially constitute an abuse of dominance infringement, when a dominant market player illegally engages in practices limiting competition. In Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) countries, most competition authorities dispose of interim measures in their legal frameworks and many have used them in past years (e.g. Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Dominican Republic, Paraguay and Peru). This paper provides an overview of the state of play of interim measures in the region covering legal frameworks, recent enforcement experiences, as well as challenges and particularities of LAC countries. The paper highlights that interim measures represent a powerful tool for competition authorities and should be carefully used to mitigate enforcement errors and related reputation risks.

Competition authorities have developed various tools to detect cartels and substantiate the basis for opening investigations. Ex officio investigations, meaning investigations initiated by the authorities themselves, are derived from detection tools that require a higher level of proactivity from the agency, for instance, industry monitoring and cartel screenings. New technologies such as artificial intelligence also provide competition authorities with greater opportunities to improve their detection tools. This paper provides an overview of detection tools to launch ex officio cartel investigations, including recent trends and experiences from Latin America and the Caribbean. It concludes by highlighting the need for competition authorities to implement a variety of approaches to complement one another and enhance cartel detection.

To mark the 40th anniversary of the OECD Local Employment and Economic Development (LEED) Programme, this paper examines determinants and consequences of employment resilience, or lack of, in European NUTS3/TL3/TL3 regions over the last 40 years. Descriptive evidence shows that the least resilient regions (those with the largest percentage drop in employment during a recession) slip to persistently lower post-recession employment-to-population ratio trajectories. On the other hand, regions with higher productivity pre-recession lost proportionally fewer jobs during a recession and were more likely to recover to the pre-recession employment levels (except for the recession induced by the COVID-19 pandemic). Overall, the findings point to the ability of productivity to serve as a shield against negative employment impacts of economic crises.

With each survey cycle, the measurement of socio-economic status in PISA must strike a delicate balance between at-times conflicting goals: accuracy, coverage, cost-efficiency, trend continuity, relevance (keeping up with changes in society) and comparability across countries. Over the past decade, a number of changes were introduced in the instruments and scaling processes; new related questions were added; and experiments were conducted with alternative question formats. In light of these changes, new variables, and experiments, we examine the quality of the indicators and scales that contribute to the index of economic, social and cultural status (ESCS) in PISA. We conclude with implications for questionnaire development, recommendations for scaling, and suggestions for future research.

Governments worldwide strive to find the appropriate level and balance of financial support for innovation to address several competing and pressing policy objectives, such as improving productivity or addressing the climate crisis. This policy brief presents the latest OECD evidence on how governments direct support to innovation, drawing on recent OECD measurement and impact analysis. It recommends rebalancing innovation support portfolios and addressing major measurement gaps on directionality that are critical for managing for the transformation of innovation systems for key transitions.

Although uptake of digital practices by SMEs continues to increase, so too has the “digital gap” with larger firms. Understanding the drivers and persisting bottlenecks of SME digitalisation as well as gaining a deeper understanding of their practices and digitalisation processes is key to inform policy decisions to help bridge this gap. This is the primary purpose of the survey this paper draws its findings from, conducted in seven OECD countries (France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Korea, Spain and the United States), in co-operation with digital platforms partners of the OECD D4SME Global Initiative. Survey findings provide new insights on SMEs’ digital journeys and how digital tools can support them in navigating short-term challenges and enhancing long-term resilience. The survey also provides evidence about SMEs' use and perception of AI technologies (with a focus on “generative AI”), their application of data analytics for tracking environmental performance, and the impact on mental wellbeing of digital practices in the workplace.

Effective waste management policies are critical for addressing environmental issues ranging from climate change to pollution. This report uses new survey data to provide evidence on the most important factors in determining key waste-related outcomes at the household level. Results show that providing collection services is critical in supporting household waste prevention efforts and that charging schemes for mixed waste can play an important complementary role in supporting sustainable waste management. Based on a discrete choice experiment, most households are shown to be willing to pay a price premium for products with sustainable packaging, but at the same time, around a third of households would require a price discount in order to opt for such products. Taken together, findings from the analysis show that waste policies play an important role in stimulating demand for sustainable consumption.

Les dépenses sociales publiques ont triplé en 60 ans, atteignant 21 % du PIB en 2022, mais avec des variations significatives entre les pays de l'OCDE. Cette hausse à long terme est liée au développement des États-providence, au vieillissement de la population et à une succession de chocs économiques qui ont entraîné des augmentations progressives des ratios de dépenses sociales par rapport au PIB, dont ils ne se sont que partiellement remis. Ce document compare les systèmes de protection sociale en France et en Allemagne, en analysant les règles institutionnelles, l'efficacité des programmes, les sources de financement, et l'impact des politiques fiscales et sociales sur différents types de familles. Il évalue également les réformes depuis 2015, en se concentrant sur les revenus des ménages, les incitations au travail et les coûts de la main-d'œuvre.

In recent years, the call for transparency in pharmaceutical pricing has gained momentum among policymakers and stakeholders. Following a resolution of the 72nd World Health Assembly and the establishment of the Oslo Medicines Initiative, there has been a concerted push for greater transparency in pricing practices. However, the exact scope of transparency measures remains unclear. Key questions persist regarding which prices and for which medicines should be disclosed, the conditions under which countries are willing to share this information, and the barriers hindering such efforts. To clarify these issues and advance the policy debate, the OECD examined the feasibility of sharing medicine price information across countries. A country survey was conducted to explore the willingness, expectations, and motives of governments and payers for sharing information on medicine prices. This report presents the key findings derived from the survey and concludes with an assessment of the feasibility of sharing net medicine price information among OECD countries.

Ce Coup de projecteur s'appuie sur les conclusions de Regards sur l'éducation 2024 sur l'équité dans l'éducation et au-delà, le thème de l'édition 2024. Les indicateurs choisis mettent en évidence les disparités entre les différents groupes démographiques en matière de ressources éducatives, de compétences, d'accès à l'éducation, de choix d'études et de taux de réussite. Le Coup de projecteur s'ouvre sur une vue d'ensemble de l'équité dans l'éducation, en analysant les principales tendances à chaque niveau, de la petite enfance à l'enseignement tertiaire. Il se penche ensuite sur les opportunités qui en découlent, en explorant la manière dont les inégalités éducatives persistent et en évaluant l'adéquation entre les résultats de l'éducation et les expériences sur le marché du travail. Enfin, il cherche à déterminer si les efforts en matière d'éducation améliorent réellement les perspectives d'emploi et les résultats sur le marché du travail.

Ensuring equal access to the latest cancer medicines is one of the most pressing challenges facing OECD health systems today. Despite the emergence of new oncology drugs, disparities in patient access—particularly through clinical trials and early access programs—remain a critical issue. Rising costs are also straining even the most affluent healthcare systems, making affordability a concern for all. This working paper examines various aspects of inequalities in access to cancer medicines, covering key stages in a medicine's life cycle, from marketing authorization to reimbursement decisions and uptake in clinical practice. The analysis draws on original findings from the 2023 OECD Policy Survey on Cancer Care Performance. It also explores potential strategies to stimulate competition among oncology medicine producers, which could create significant budget headroom, allowing reinvestment in new cancer medicines that offer substantial clinical benefits to patients.

This policy brief explores possible paths forward for policy makers in Brazil seeking to enhance quality and equity in lower secondary education. Drawing on analysis of OECD data, international policy examples, and insights from the Policy Dialogues in Focus seminars, the brief covers three key topics: 1) Strengthening learners’ resilience, by listening and responding to their needs; 2) Empowering resilient educators, to balance change and innovation with ongoing needs; 3) Supporting learners’ transitions, through their learning pathways. Building on the OECD’s Framework for Responsiveness and Resilience in Education Policy, these Policy Dialogues in Focus seminars from the Education Policy Outlook brought together federal and subnational policy makers, civil society actors and researchers in Brazil as well as policy makers from Chile, Colombia and Spain.

This Spotlight presents findings from Education at a Glance 2024 on equity in and through education, the theme of the 2024 edition. The indicators presented in this Spotlight highlight how different demographic groups face disparities in educational resources, proficiency, access to education, study choices and completion rates. The Spotlight first presents an overview of equity in education, analysing the main trends at each of level of education from early childhood to tertiary education. It goes on to consider disparities in opportunities, exploring how educational inequalities persist and assessing the fit between educational outcomes and labour-market experiences. Finally, it analyses how education affects labour-market prospects and outcomes.

Cette troisième édition suit l’évolution des politiques et pratiques des services de partage de contenu en ligne en matière de contenus terroristes et extrémistes violents (CTEV). Quinze des 50 services populaires publient des rapports de transparence sur les CTEV, contre 5 en 2020 et 11 en 2021. Cette édition examine aussi les 50 services comptant le plus de CTEV. Seuls 11 services sont communs aux deux groupes, ce qui montre que les acteurs terroristes utilisent davantage les petites plateformes. Seuls 8 services parmi ceux comptant le plus de CTEV publient des rapports de transparence, 13 ne les interdisent pas et 17 ne donnent aucune information. Les résultats montrent que la taille des services et la cryptographie ne sont pas des obstacles insurmontables à la publication de rapports de transparence. Enfin, la fragmentation réglementaire s’intensifie à mesure que de nouvelles juridictions imposent des règles en matière de transparence.

By combining information from online job postings with firm-level financial data provided by Orbis, as well as firm-level merchandise trade data, this paper seeks to get a deeper understanding of the characteristics and performance of data-intensive firms in the United Kingdom since 2015. Data-intensive firms are defined here as firms which are hiring data-related skills. One key contribution of the analysis is to match in a more efficient way the two data sources, Lightcast and Orbis, which are now used extensively in the economic literature. Both the number and the share of data-intensive firms increased sharply in the United Kingdom from 2015 to 2021, with a peak in 2020. The number of highly data-intensive companies and data-intensive multinationals (MNEs) display the same pattern. A large share of data-intensive firms operate within the information and communication industry and are predominantly located in the Greater London area, especially in London itself. Those firms tend to employ more staff and are more capitalised than non data-intensive firms. They are on average more productive, generate more revenues and trade more in foreign markets. While data-intensive firms can be found in all firm size groups, the firms displaying on average the highest level of data intensity were medium sized in 2015 but are now small sized. In terms of international trade, UK dataintensive firms are, generally, more export intensive than non data-intensive firms, but estimates vary across industries.

Over the past decades, productivity growth and technology diffusion have slowed down, and business dynamism has declined in many advanced and emerging economies. Meanwhile, inequalities in economic outcomes, such as in income and wealth, and in opportunities, such as access to quality education and training, are pervasive. By hampering social mobility and the efficient allocation of talents, inequality of opportunities may trigger slower growth and even higher inequalities in outcomes. Policies to boost growth and make it more inclusive should focus on (i) ensuring broad access to quality education, from childhood onwards, and upskilling throughout working lives; (ii) addressing labour market insecurity and informality and improving job quality; (iii) curbing market power in products and labour markets to boost business dynamism; (iv) enhancing the efficiency and progressivity of taxes and transfer systems; and (v) fostering international cooperation, for instance in trade and taxation.

This report reviews the literature on the distributional consequences of climate change and mitigation and transition pathways. The heterogeneous levels of exposure and vulnerability to climate change across countries, regions, households, and workers hint at the significant distributional costs of inaction. Climate policies will likely trigger a reallocation from “high-polluting” sectors to “green” sectors, disproportionately affecting certain regions and low-skilled workers. Price-based policies, such as carbon taxation, show varied effects across countries: they tend to be more regressive in developed countries and more progressive in developing countries where energy affordability and energy poverty are major concerns. Non-market-based policies are often regressive and can result in equity issues. Effective climate action requires balancing distributional outcomes, ensuring political acceptability, and understanding the link between policy perceptions and support.

The use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in finance has increased rapidly in recent years, with the potential to deliver important benefits to market participants and to improve customer welfare. At the same time, AI in finance could also amplify existing risks in financial markets and create new ones. This report analyses different regulatory approaches to the use of AI in finance in 49 OECD and non-OECD jurisdictions based on the Survey on Regulatory Approaches to AI in Finance.