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The recent surge in energy prices is drawing attention once again to the availability and security of energy resources and the prospects for both supply and prices. World Energy Outlook: 2001 Insights – a follow-up to the acclaimed World Energy Outlook 2000 – takes a detailed look at all these issues. It analyses the main factors driving energy production and distribution, including the cost of developing resources and bringing them to market, energy pricing and the impact of government policies.
The study’s central finding is that reserves of oil, gas, coal and uranium are more than adequate to meet projected demand growth at least until 2020. But massive investment in energy production and transportation infrastructure will be needed to exploit these reserves. The capability, and willingness, of Middle East oil producers to exploit their low-cost reserves is a major source of uncertainty. For gas, the cost of supply and the impact of technology will be critical. There is a huge potential for expanding the supply of renewable energies if strong government backing can achieve steep reductions in their cost. Beyond 2020, new technologies such as hydrogen-based fuel cells, clean coal burning and carbon sequestration hold out the prospect of abundant and clean energy supplies in a world largely free of climate-destabilising carbon emissions.
The International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook has long beenrecognised as theauthoritative source for projections of global trends in energy supply and demand, trade and investment and carbon dioxide emissions. For the first time this year’s Outlook extends its projection horizon to the year 2030. Against the background of the re-emergence of energy security as a global concern, this Outlook highlights the rapidly expanding importance of China as a strategic buyer on world oil and gas markets, the fact that a quarter of the world’s population still lacks modern energy services, the huge investments needed to maintain dependable energy supplies world wide, and the scale of the task facing those countries that are committed to reducing their greenhouse-gas emissions under the Kyoto Protocol.
World energy demand will raise by two-thirds between now and 2030, and the world economy will falter if these energy supplies are not available. How much investment will be required to satisfy this need and can it be financed?
The WEIO 2003 from the IEA answers these questions in a first-ever attempt to quantify global energy investment needs, fuel by fuel and region by region.
The numbers are daunting. The global financial system has the capacity to fund the required investment, but are the conditions right?
The International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook 2005 answers these challenging questions. In addition to providing updated projections of world energy demand and supply to 2030, it analyses in detail prospects for:
• The Middle East and North Africa’s domestic demand for oil, gas and electricity, including for water desalination.
• The region’s oil and gas resources, plans and potential for production and how much investment will be required.
• Energy-sector developments in Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
• What would happen if upstream oil investment is delayed.
• What would happen if consuming countries, driven by security concerns, persistent high prices or environmental policies, act to curb demand and develop alternatives.
The producing countries in the Middle East and North Africa can count on growing demand for their oil and gas. Are energy importing countries’ expectations of them realistic?
This 2006 edition of IEA's annual World Energy Outlook presents two visions of the energy future. Will it be under-invested, vulnerable and dirty, or clean, clever and competitive? This edition of WEO responds to the remit of the G8 world leaders by mapping a new energy future, contrasting it with where we are now headed. WEO 2006 shows how to change course. It counts the costs and benefits - and the benefits win.
World Energy Outlook 2006 also answers these questions:
- Is the economic reaction to high energy prices merely delayed?
- Is oil and gas investment on track?
- Are the conditions shaping up for a nuclear energy revival?
- Can biofuels erode the oil monopoly in road transport?
- Can 2.5 billion people in developing countries switch to modern energy for cooking?
- Is Brazil learning new lessons or teaching the world?
With extensive statistics, detailed projections, analysis and advice, WEO 2006 equips policy-makers and the public to re-make the energy future.
World leaders have pledged to act to change the energy future. Some new policies are in place. But the trends in energy demand, imports, coal use and greenhouse gas emissions to 2030 in this year’s World Energy Outlook are even worse than projected in WEO 2006. China and India are the emerging giants of the world economy. Their unprecedented pace of economic development will require ever more energy, but it will transform living standards for billions. There can be no question of asking them selectively to curb growth so as to solve problems which are global. So how is the transition to be achieved to a more secure, lower-carbon energy system? WEO 2007 provides the answers. With extensive statistics, projections in three scenarios, analysis and advice, it shows China, India and the rest of the world why we need to co-operate to change the energy future and how to do it.
The World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2008 draws on the experience of another turbulent year in energy markets to provide new energy projections to 2030, region by region and fuel by fuel. It incorporates the latest data and policies. WEO-2008 focuses on two pressing issues facing the energy sector today:
-Prospects for oil and gas production: Through field-by-field analysis of production trends at 800 of the world’s largest oilfields, an assessment of the potential for finding and developing new reserves and a bottom-up analysis of upstream costs and investment, WEO-2008 takes a hard look at future global oil and gas supply.
-Post-2012 climate scenarios: Two different scenarios are assessed, one in which the atmospheric concentration of emissions is stabilised at 550 parts per million (ppm) in CO2 equivalent terms and the second at the still more ambitious level of 450ppm. The implications for energy demand, prices, investment, air pollution and energy security are fully spelled out. This ground-breaking analysis will enable policy makers to distill the key choices as they strive to agree in Copenhagen in 2009 on a post-Kyoto climate framework.
The International Energy Agency's authoritative annual global energy projections. This 2009 edition analyses what the economic crisis will mean for energy markets and how the transition to a clean global energy system can be financed. It focuses on three specific areas: financing energy investment under a post 2012 climate framework, prospects for natural gas markets, and energy trends in Southeast Asia.
The world appears to be emerging from the worst economic crisis in decades. Many countries have made pledges under the Copenhagen Accord to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions. Commitments have also been made by the G-20 and APEC to phase out inefficient fossil-fuel subsidies. Are we, at last, on the path to a secure, reliable and environmentally sustainable energy system?
Updated projections of energy demand, production, trade and investment, fuel by fuel and region by region to 2035 are provided in the 2010 edition of the World Energy Outlook (WEO). It includes, for the first time, a new scenario that anticipates future actions by governments to meet the commitments they have made to tackle climate change and growing energy insecurity.
WEO-2010 shows:
· what more must be done and spent to achieve the goal of the Copenhagen Accord to limit the global temperature increase to 2°C and how these actions would impact on oil markets;
· how emerging economies – led by China and India – will increasingly shape the global energy landscape;
· what role renewables can play in a clean and secure energy future;
· what removing fossil-fuel subsidies would mean for energy markets, climate change and state budgets;
· the trends in Caspian energy markets and the implications for global energy supply;
· the prospects for unconventional oil; and
· how to give the entire global population access to modern energy services.
With extensive data, projections and analysis, WEO-2010 provides invaluable insights into how the energy system could evolve over the next quarter of a century. The book is essential reading for anyone with a stake in the energy sector.
World Energy Outlook 2011 brings together the latest data, policy developments, and the experience of another year to provide robust analysis and insight into global energy markets, today and for the next 25 years. This edition of the IEA’s flagship WEO publication gives the latest energy demand and supply projections for different future scenarios, broken down by country, fuel and sector. It also gives special focus to such topical energy sector issues as:
• Russia's energy prospects and their implications for global markets.
• The role of coal in driving economic growth in an emissions-constrained world.
• The implications of a possible delay in oil and gas sector investment in the Middle East and North Africa.
• How high-carbon infrastructure “lock-in” is making the 2°C climate change goal more challenging and expensive to meet.
• The scale of fossil fuel subsidies and support for renewable energy and their impact on energy, economic and environmental trends.
• A “Low Nuclear Case” to investigate what a rapid slowdown in the use of nuclear power would mean for the global energy landscape.
• The scale and type of investment needed to provide modern energy to the billions of the world’s poor that do not have it.
Industry and government decision-makers and others with a stake in the energy sector all need WEO-2012. It presents authoritative projections of energy trends through to 2035 and insights into what they mean for energy security, environmental sustainability and economic development.
Oil, coal, natural gas, renewables and nuclear power are all covered, together with an update on climate change issues. Global energy demand, production, trade, investment and carbon dioxide emissions are broken down by region or country, by fuel and by sector.
Special strategic analyses cover
-What unlocking the purely economic potential for energy efficiency could do, country by country and sector by sector, for energy markets, the economy and the environment.
-The Iraqi energy sector, examining both its importance in satisfying the country’s own needs and its crucial role in meeting global oil and gas demand.
-An examination of the cost of delaying action on climate change.
-The water-energy nexus,as water resources become increasingly stressed and access more contentious.
-Measures of progress towards providing universal access to modern energy services.
There are many uncertainties; but many decisions cannot wait. The insights of WEO‑2012 are invaluable to those who must shape our energy future.
A new global energy landscape is emerging, resetting long-held expectations for our energy future. Incorporating these recent developments and world-class analysis, World Energy Outlook 2013 presents a full update of energy projections through to 2035 and insights into what they mean for energy security, climate change, economic development and universal access to modern energy services. Oil, coal, natural gas, renewables and nuclear power are all covered, along with an update on developments in subsidies to fossil fuels and renewable energy.
This year World Energy Outlook also gives a special focus to topical energy sector issues:
-Redrawing the energy-climate map: the short-term measures that could keep the 2°C target within reach, and the extent to which low-carbon development could leave fossil-fuel investments stranded. Special report to be released 10 June.
-Energy in Brazil: how a vast and diverse resource base – from renewables to new offshore discoveries – can meet the growing needs of the Brazilian economy and open up new export markets.
-Oil supply, demand and trade: a fresh look at the economics and decline rates of different types of oil production around the world, the prospects for light tight oil inside and outside North America, along with new analysis of oil products and the refining sector.
-The implications for economic competitiveness of the changing energy map: what the major disparities in regional energy prices might mean for major energy-intensive industries and the broader impact on economic growth and household purchasing power.
-The global spread of unconventional gas supply, including the uptake of the IEA “Golden Rules” to address public concerns about the associated environmental and social impacts.
-Energy trends in Southeast Asia, a region that is exerting a growing influence in the global energy system. Special report to be released 23 September.
The World Energy Outlook is recognised as the most authoritative source of strategic analysis of global energy markets. It is regularly used as input to the development of government policies and business strategies and raises public awareness of the key energy and environmental challenges the world is facing.
The global energy landscape is evolving at a rapid pace, reshaping long-held expectations for our energy future. The 2014 edition of the World Energy Outlook (WEO) will incorporate all the latest data and developments to produce a comprehensive and authoritative analysis of medium- and longer-term energy trends. It will complement a full set of energy projections – which extend from today through, for the first time, the year 2040 – with strategic insights into their meaning for energy security, the economy and the environment. Oil, natural gas, coal, renewables and energy efficiency will be covered, along with updates on trends in energy-related CO2 emissions, fossil-fuel and renewable energy subsidies, and universal access to modern energy services.
The WEO-2014 will also provide in-depth analysis of some topical energy sector issues:
Africa: This continent-wide focus, paying particular attention to the energy outlook for sub-Saharan Africa, will include data and projections for the entire region as well as for its key energy-producing and consuming countries. Key elements for analysis will be the prospects for improving access to modern energy services and for developing the region’s huge resource potential in a way that contributes not only to regional and global energy balances but also to local economic and social well-being.
Nuclear power: Uncertainties continue to cloud the future for nuclear – government policy, public confidence, financing in liberalised markets, competitiveness versus other sources of generation and the looming retirement of a large fleet of older plants. The study will assess the outlook for nuclear power and its implications.
Energy sector investment (WEO Special Report to be released 3 June): The analysis will provide a detailed assessment of current flows and future investment needs along the entire energy value chain, examining the scale of investment required and financing options. The report will also show how barriers to investment vary according to the strength of decarbonisation policies.
The precipitous fall in oil prices, continued geopolitical instability and the ongoing global climate negotiations are witness to the dynamic nature of energy markets. In a time of so much uncertainty, understanding the implications of the shifting energy landscape for economic and environmental goals and for energy security is vital. The World Energy Outlook 2015 (WEO-2015) will present updated projections for the evolution of the global energy system to 2040, based on the latest data and market developments, as well as detailed insights on the prospects for fossil fuels, renewables, the power sector and energy efficiency and analysis on trends in CO2 emissions and fossil-fuel and renewable energy subsidies.
In addition, the WEO-2015 covers in-depth analysis on several topical issues:
A lower oil price future? The decline in oil prices and changed market conditions has prompted a broad debate over how and when the oil market will re-balance. This analysis will examine the implications for markets, policies, investment, the fuel mix and emissions if oil prices stay lower for longer.
India’s energy outlook: How India’s energy sector develops over the coming decades will have profound implications both for the country’s own prospects and for the global energy system as a whole. With new impetus behind efforts to upgrade the country’s energy supply, this comprehensive, in-depth analysis will assess the multiple challenges and opportunities facing India as it develops the resources and infrastructure to meet rapidly rising energy demand.
Renewables and energy efficiency: In the run-up to COP21, the Outlook will provide a report on the competitive position of fast-growing renewable energy technologies in different markets, how this evolves and what implications this might have for policy; the analysis also tracks for the first time the coverage of energy use by efficiency policies around the world and the ways in which product design, recycling and reuse (“material efficiency”) can contribute to energy savings.
Unconventional gas: In addition to an update on the opportunities and challenges that face the development of unconventional gas globally, analysis will focus on the prospects for unconventional gas in China and how this might affect China’s energy outlook as well as regional and global balances.
The landmark Paris Agreement on climate change will transform the global energy system for decades to come.
The latest World Energy Outlook offers the most comprehensive analysis of what this transformation of the energy sector might look like, thanks to its energy projections to 2040. It reviews the key opportunities and challenges ahead for renewable energy, the central pillar of the low- carbon energy transition, as well as the critical role for energy efficiency.
WEO-2016 examines how a post-Paris world redefines the idea of energy security, particularly in the power sector, the frontline in the fight against climate change. The report explores how oil, natural gas and coal are adjusting to today’s market conditions and assesses the risks that lie ahead, from under-investment in essential supply to stranded assets.
WEO-2016 looks at individual country pledges and examines how close – or far – nations are from reaching their goals. It outlines a course that would limit the rise in global temperature to below 2 °C and also plots possible pathways for meeting even more ambitious goals.
This year, WEO-2016 also devotes a special chapter to the critical interplay between water and energy, with an emphasis on the stress points that arise as the linkages between these two sectors intensify.
The global energy scene is in a state of flux. Large-scale shifts include: the rapid deployment and steep declines in the costs of major renewable energy technologies; the growing importance of electricity in energy use across the globe; profound changes in China’s economy and energy policy, moving consumption away from coal; and the continued surge in shale gas and tight oil production in the United States.
These changes provide the backdrop for the World Energy Outlook-2017, which includes a full update of energy demand and supply projections to 2040 based on different scenarios. The projections are accompanied by detailed analyses of their impact on energy industries and investment, as well as implications for energy security and the environment.
The report this year includes a focus on China, which examines how China’s choices could reshape the global outlook for all fuels and technologies. A second focus, on natural gas, explores how the rise of shale gas and LNG are changing the global gas market as well as the opportunities and risks for gas in the transition to a cleaner energy system.
Finally, the WEO-2017 introduces a major new scenario – the Sustainable Development Scenario – that outlines an integrated approach to achieving internationally agreed objectives on climate change, air quality and universal access to modern energy.
What do today’s energy policies, policy ambitions and technology trends tell us about the future? Is the world getting closer or is it moving away from meeting energy-related sustainable development goals?
Drawing on the latest data on energy markets and technology trends, this year’s World Energy Outlook – the gold standard of long-term energy analysis – provides detailed analyses of these fundamental issues to 2040, covering all fuels, technologies and regions.
Electricity is the special focus of the 2018 edition. The share of electricity in global energy use is growing while the rise of low-carbon technologies is prompting a major transformation in the way electricity is generated. What might tomorrow’s power sector look like? How can it ensure reliable supply while reducing emissions?
WEO-2018 also asks what can be done to reduce the environmental footprint of the world’s oil and gas supply.
The World Energy Outlook series is a leading source of strategic insight on the future of energy and energy-related emissions, providing detailed scenarios that map out the consequences of different energy policy and investment choices.
This year's edition updates the outlooks for all fuels, technologies and regions, based on the latest market data, policy initiatives and cost trends.
In addition, the 2019 report tackles some key questions in depth:
- What do the shale revolution, the rise of liquefied natural gas, the falling costs of renewables and the spread of digital technologies mean for tomorrow's energy supply?
- How can the world get on a pathway to meet global climate targets and other sustainable energy goals?
- What are the energy choices that will shape Africa's future, and how might the rise of the African consumer affect global trends?
- How large a role could offshore wind play in the transformation of the energy sector?
- Could the world's gas grids one day deliver low-carbon energy?
The World Energy Outlook, the IEA’s flagship publication, provides a comprehensive view of how the global energy system could develop in the coming decades.
This year’s exceptional circumstances require an exceptional approach. The usual long-term modelling horizons are kept but the focus for this new Outlook is firmly on the next ten years, exploring in detail the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic on the energy sector and the near-term actions that could accelerate clean energy transitions.
The analysis targets the key uncertainties facing the energy sector in relation to the duration of the pandemic and its implications, while mapping out the choices that would pave the way towards a sustainable recovery.
The strategic insights from the WEO-2020 are based on detailed modelling of different potential pathways out of the crisis, covering all regions, fuels and technologies and using the latest data on energy markets, policies and costs.