Indonesia

The world is increasingly facing a technologically changing employment landscape and such changes are directly affecting the future demand for skills. For regional economies built on labour migration, the impending changes will affect migrants and their families, their countries of origin and the recruitment systems they are attached to – and ultimately disrupt the development benefits of migration. This paper investigates how the future of the employment landscape will affect migration within the Abu Dhabi Dialogue, a regional consultative process for migration in Asia. It investigates the impending changes in the demand for skills in countries of destination, how such changes will affect migration processes and whether countries of origin are ready for the changes. It provides recommendations on how regional consultative processes can foster dialogue between key actors from both countries of origin and destination to better navigate future changes and ensure a smooth transition.

Many Emerging Asian countries have been refining macroprudential policies, particularly since the Global Financial Crisis. For instance, they have developed policies targeting housing markets and broadly transposed the Basel III requirements into their national legislation. In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, policy makers now need to identify emerging vulnerabilities and their associated financial stability risks and respond with the appropriate macroprudential tools.

This publication provides a detailed overview of the current macroprudential policy situation in Emerging Asian countries and explores how the macroprudential policy toolkit has evolved. The report discusses some of the most pressing challenges to financial stability, including the interaction of macroprudential policy with other policies. It also devotes special attention to macroprudential policies for emerging priorities, such as achieving green goals and updating regulatory frameworks to reflect ongoing Fintech developments. Climate change will indeed create new challenges in financial markets, while Fintech developments bring about many economic opportunities and deepen financial systems, but present a variety of novel risks requiring rapid policy responses.

Thanks to tremendous renewable energy and energy efficiency potential and a stable, dynamic economy, Indonesia has become a coveted destination for investors in the clean energy sector. Clean energy investment, however, remains far below the level needed to realise Indonesia’s ambitious clean energy and sustainable finance goals. Instead, investment in fossil fuels continues to dominate.

This first Clean Energy Finance and Investment Policy Review of Indonesia supports efforts to reverse these trends and achieve a clean energy transition. The report provides a comprehensive overview of the current policy framework, highlighting progress and identifying untapped opportunities for strengthening policy interventions that can help scale up clean energy finance and investment. It also provides a number of tailored recommendations for the Government of Indonesia and development partners. The Review was undertaken within the OECD Clean Energy Finance and Investment Mobilisation (CEFIM) Programme, which supports governments in emerging economies to unlock finance and investment in clean energy.

Indonesia telah menjadi tujuan dambaan para investor di sektor energi bersih berkat potensi energi terbarukan dan efisiensi energi yang luar biasa serta ekonomi yang stabil dan dinamis. Namun, investasi energi bersih masih jauh di bawah tingkat yang dibutuhkan untuk mencapai tujuan energi bersih dan keuangan berkelanjutan Indonesia yang ambisius. Sebaliknya, investasi bahan bakar fosil terus mendominasi.

Tinjauan Kebijakan Pembiayaan dan Investasi Energi Bersih pertama di Indonesia ini mendukung upaya untuk membalikkan tren ini dan mewujudkan transisi energi bersih. Laporan ini memberikan gambaran menyeluruh tentang kerangka kebijakan saat ini, menyoroti kemajuan dan mengidentifikasi peluang yang belum dimanfaatkan untuk memperkuat intervensi kebijakan yang dapat membantu meningkatkan pembiayaan dan investasi energi bersih. Laporan ini juga memberikan sejumlah rekomendasi yang disesuaikan untuk Pemerintah Indonesia dan mitra pembangunan. Tinjauan dilakukan dalam Program OECD Clean Energy Finance and Investment Mobilisation (CEFIM), yang mendukung pemerintah di negara berkembang untuk membuka pembiayaan dan investasi dalam energi bersih.

Favourable demographics has boosted Indonesia’s economic growth in recent decades, but its contribution will wane over time. Skills and competences will therefore become increasingly important to raise living standards. Educational attainment has improved considerably, but the quality of education remains disappointing. At the same time, technological changes, new organisational business models and evolving worker preferences make upskilling and reskilling increasingly important. This warrants continuous investment in improving education and lifelong training, in terms of both quality and quantity, with an enhanced role for social partners. Tackling existing and rising skill shortages requires more participation from women, older adults, internal migrants, disadvantaged groups, and foreign workers. Expanding access to early childhood education would provide all children with better opportunities and bring significant benefits. Reducing informality is key to encouraging investment in skills. The COVID-19 crisis has highlighted workers’ insufficient protection against shocks, underlining the need for unemployment insurance. It is also an opportunity to boost digitalisation and innovate with smart practices. School closures are already penalising learning outcomes and will reduce future earnings.

This paper provides an empirical analysis of the impact of energy price increases – induced notably by the removal of fossil fuel subsidies – on the joint environmental and economic performance of Indonesian plants in the manufacturing industry for the period 1980-2015. The paper shows that a 10% increase in energy prices causes a a reduction in energy use by 5.2% and a reduction in CO2 emissions by 5.8% on average, with more energy-intensive sectors responding more to the shocks. At the same time, energy price increases increase the probability of plant exit and reduce employment of large and energy intensive plants, but the estimated effect is very small (-0.2% for a 10% increase in energy prices). Morevoer, energy price changes have no significant influence on net job creation at the industry-wide level, suggesting that jobs are not lost but reallocated from energy-intensive to energy-efficient firms. Overall, the empirical evidence demonstrates that environmental fiscal reforms in emerging economies like Indonesia can bring about large environmental benefits with little to no effect on employment.

Indonesia experienced its first recession in over two decades in 2020, although large-scale fiscal stimulus and monetary support limited its depth and impact. The approval of an ambitious package of structural reforms, covering labour laws, taxes and ease of doing business, testifies of the authorities’ commitment to attract high-quality investment that will enhance wealth and well-being. This is key at a time when Indonesia embarks in trade and investment liberalisation through the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership with East Asia and Oceania partners, with new opportunities and challenges. Nevertheless, the pandemic leaves behind strong headwinds. The COVID-19 impact compounds pre-existing challenges, notably a very high incidence of informality and relatively low levels of skills. Uncertainty surrounds the vaccination roll-out and the resumption of a normal life, especially for children who have been deprived of school for an unprecedentedly-long period. The crisis will have a lasting effect on some vulnerable socio-economic sectors and therefore requires improvements in the delivery of social services.

SPECIAL FEATURE: SKILLS

Gross domestic product (GDP) is the standard measure of the value of final goods and services produced by a country during a period minus the value of imports. This subset of Aggregate National Accounts comprises comprehensive statistics on gross domestic product (GDP) by presenting the three different approaches of its measure of GDP: output based GDP, expenditure based GDP and income based GDP. These three different measures of gross domestic product (GDP) are further detailed by transactions whereby: the output approach includes gross value added at basic prices, taxes less subsidies, statistical discrepancy; the expenditure approach includes domestic demand, gross capital formation, external balance of goods and services; and the income approach includes variables such as compensation of employees, gross operating surplus, taxes and production and imports. Gross domestic product (GDP) data are measured in national currency and are available in current prices, constant prices and per capita starting from 1950 onwards.

Skills are central to the capacity of countries and people to thrive in a rapidly changing world. Recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic will require countries to co-ordinate interventions to help recent graduates find jobs, reactivate the skills of displaced workers and use skills effectively in workplaces. Megatrends such as globalisation, climate change, technological progress and demographic change will continue to reshape work and society. Countries should take action now to develop and use more effectively the skills required for the world of the future and at the same time make their skills systems more resilient and adaptable in the context of change and uncertainty.

The OECD Skills Strategy provides countries with a strategic approach to assess their skills challenges and opportunities. The foundation of this approach is the OECD Skills Strategy framework allowing countries to explore how they can improve i) developing relevant skills, ii) using skills effectively, and iii) strengthening the governance of the skills system.

This report applies the OECD Skills Strategy framework to Southeast Asia, providing an overview of the region’s skills challenges and opportunities in the context of COVID-19 and megatrends, and identifying good practices for improving skills outcomes. This report lays the foundation for a more fully elaborated Skills Strategy for Southeast Asia.

This Working Paper presents the perspective of Indonesia on the concept of total official support for sustainable development (TOSSD), the extent of TOSSD resources provided by Indonesia and the capacity of the government to report on these resources. Indonesia broadly supported TOSSD as a relevant measure for monitoring SDG implementation and proposed some adjustments to the TOSSD methodology.

Estimates for TOSSD provided by Indonesia in 2017 amount to USD 6 376 million, with USD 16 million for Pillar I (cross-border flows to other developing countries) and USD 6 360 million for Pillar II (contributions to international public goods). For Indonesia, activities recorded in TOSSD should not only be assessed in financial terms, but also in terms of their sustainable development impact. This pilot study attests to Indonesia’s strong capacity to report on TOSSD Pillar I, but finds that tracking could be improved for a wider range of resources. The country also has the capacity to report on Pillar II.

The COVID-19 crisis has had a profound impact on SME access to finance. In particular, the sudden drop in revenues created acute liquidity shortages, threatening the survival of many viable businesses. The report documents an increase in demand for bank lending in the first half of 2020, and a steady supply of credit thanks to government interventions. On the other hand, other sources of finance declined, in particular early-stage equity.

This paper, a special edition of Financing SMEs and Entrepreneurs, focuses on the impacts of COVID-19 on SME access to finance, along with government policy responses. It reveals that the pre-crisis financing environment was broadly favourable for SMEs and entrepreneurs, who benefited from low interest rates, loose credit standards and an increasingly diverse offer of financing instruments.

It documents the unprecedented scope and scale of the policy responses undertaken by governments world-wide, and details their key characteristics, and outlines the principal issues and policy challenges for the next phases of the pandemic, such as the over-indebtedness of SMEs and the need to continue to foster a diverse range of financing instruments for SMEs.

Ce rapport est une édition spéciale du Tableau de bord de l’OCDE sur le financement des PME et des entrepreneurs, publication phare de l’OCDE. Il examine en détail les conséquences du COVID-19 sur l’accès des PME au financement, ainsi que les mesures prises en conséquence par les pouvoirs publics. Il apparaît qu’avant la crise, les conditions de financement étaient globalement favorables pour les PME et les entrepreneurs, qui bénéficiaient de faibles taux d’intérêt, de critères accommodants d’octroi des crédits et d’une offre de plus en plus diversifiée d’instruments de financement. Mais la crise du COVID‑19 a profondément bouleversé l’accès des PME au financement. Plus particulièrement, l’effondrement brutal du chiffre d’affaires des entreprises a provoqué de graves pénuries de liquidités qui ont mis en danger la survie de bon nombre d’entreprises viables. Ce rapport fait état d’une augmentation de la demande de prêts bancaires au cours du premier semestre de 2020, et d’une stabilité de l’offre de crédit grâce à l’action des pouvoirs publics. Parallèlement, on a observé un recul d’autres sources de financement, en particulier l’apport de fonds propres au stade du démarrage. Le rapport réunit des données sur le périmètre et l’ampleur des mesures prises par les gouvernements dans le monde, et en précise les principales caractéristiques. Il décrit les principaux enjeux stratégiques du financement des PME qui se poseront au cours des prochaines phases de la pandémie ; il s’agira en effet d’éviter le surendettement des PME, de promouvoir une gamme diversifiée d’instruments de financement, de stimuler la création d’entreprises et de renforcer la résilience des PME par des mesures structurelles.

Non-cognitive characteristics of students in four Southeast Asian countries – Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Viet Nam – were reviewed based on the PISA 2009, 2012, and 2015 data. Overall, students in this region demonstrated similarities with respect to their non-cognitive dispositions such as learning habits, approaches to learning, motivation for school subject matters and self-beliefs about their abilities.

The non-cognitive characteristics that were most prevalent in the region included enjoyment and instrumental motivation to learn, which were evidenced by the indices of intrinsicmotivation for mathematics (INTMAT), instrumental motivation for mathematics (INSTMOT), enjoyment in learning of science (JOYSCIE), and instrumental motivation in learning science (INSTSCIE). However, these variables were not strong predictors of student achievement in this region.

The review also revealed that the best non-cognitive predictors of student achievement were metacognitive awareness (METASUM and UNDREM) for reading achievement; self-efficacy, self-concept, and anxiety (MATHEFF, SCMAT, and ANXMAT) for mathematics achievement; and environmental awareness and epistemological beliefs (ENVAWARE and EPIST) for science achievement. These variables were also the best predictors, on average, across all PISA participants and economies. However, some region-specific non-cognitive predictors were also noted. These were intrinsic motivation (INTMAT) in Malaysia; perseverance (PERSEV) in Thailand; and mathematics intentions (MATINTFC)in Viet Nam.

Overall, the similarities found in the non-cognitive characteristics among Southeast Asian students suggest that (a) regional collaboration in designing the educational strategies may be beneficial and that (b) an implementation of regional questionnaires in future PISA surveys may be useful to gain an in-depth understanding of achievement-related factors in this region.