Lesotho

The performance of Lesotho’s economy in 2012 was modest, as drought reduced agricultural production by an estimated 70%. GDP nonetheless grew by 3.8%, mainly driven by the expanding mining sector and the building industry. In the medium term, growth is expected to be only marginally higher. Given the important contribution of exports to the country’s growth and gross international reserves, the uncertain global economic environment as well as uncertainties surrounding the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) trade preferences beyond 2015 will remain critical challenges.

Les performances économiques du Lesotho ont été modestes en 2012, car la sécheresse a réduit la production agricole de 70 %, selon les estimations. Le produit intérieur brut (PIB) a néanmoins progressé de 3.8 %, essentiellement sous l’effet de l’expansion du secteur minier et de la construction. À moyen terme, la croissance ne devrait augmenter que marginalement. Étant donné la contribution importante des exportations à la croissance du pays et à ses réserves internationales brutes, les doutes qui planent sur la conjoncture économique mondiale ainsi que sur le maintien des préférences commerciales au titre de la Loi sur la croissance et les opportunités économiques en Afrique (AGOA) après 2015 resteront critiques.

Lesotho’s economy showed signs of economic recovery in 2009, following the global financial crisis; however, the impact of floods during early January, 2011 has slowed the pace of the expected recovery. Growth is estimated to have reached 3.1% in 2011 (down by 2.5 percentage points compared to 2010) due to recovery of the manufacturing sector and high demand of diamond exports. Notwithstanding projected higher import requirements and low Southern African Customs Union (SACU) revenue, in the medium-term, growth is forecast to average 4.8%, driven by investment in phase II of the Lesotho Highland project and rehabilitation of infrastructure affected by the floods (Figure 1 and Table 1). Fiscal policy remains dependent on the performance of SACU revenue (in particular, the core SACU revenue, which is non-cyclical) which will average 27% of GDP in the medium-term, much higher than the average of 15% (2010-2011). Lesotho has traditionally relied on SACU revenue to fund close to 60% of its national budget. Lesotho’s share of SACU revenue is expected to decline from M4.9 billion in 2009/10 to M1.7 billion in 2010/2011. The government’s budget of M13.7 billion is based on the assumption of recovery in SACU recovery to M5billion and M4.7 billion in 2012/13 and M4.7 billion in 2013/14.

L’économie du Lesotho a montré des signes de reprise en 2009, suite à la crise financière mondiale ; toutefois, le rythme de cette reprise a été ralenti par l’impact des inondations qui se sont produites au début du mois de janvier 2011. Selon les estimations, la croissance aurait atteint 3.1 % en 2011 (une baisse de 2.5 points par rapport à 2010) grâce à la reprise du secteur manufacturier et à la forte demande pour les exportations de diamants. En dépit des prévisions qui tablent sur un accroissement des besoins en importations et sur une relative faiblesse des recettes issues de l’Union douanière de l’Afrique australe (Southern African Customs Union - SACU), sur le moyen terme, la croissance devrait approcher une moyenne de 4.8 %, tirée par les investissements dans la phase II du Lesotho Highlands Water Project et la réhabilitation des infrastructures affectées par les inondations récentes (Figure 1 et Tableau 1). La politique budgétaire du pays reste dépendante des performances des recettes issues de la SACU (en particulier les recettes brutes, qui sont non cycliques), qui devraient représenter en moyenne 27 % du PIB sur le moyen terme, chiffre bien plus élevé que les 15 % observés sur la période 2010-11. Le Lesotho s’est traditionnellement appuyé sur les recettes issues de la SACU pour financer près de 60 % du budget national. La part du Lesotho dans les recettes issues de la SACU devrait décliner de 4.9 milliards LSL en 2009/10 à 1.7 milliard LSL en 2010/11. Le budget de 13.7 milliards LSL établi par le gouvernement est basé sur une hypothèse de reprise des recettes issues de la SACU à 5 milliards LSL et 4.7 milliards LSL en 2012/13, et à 4.7 milliards LSL en 2013/14.

There are signs of Lesotho's economic recovery from the effects of the global financial crisis, but the damage caused to this small and open economy may last for a while. Lesotho's high export concentration left it vulnerable to the global economic downturn. This was exacerbated by Lesotho's dependency on South Africa, a country that was also affected by the collapse in commodity prices. Lesotho's economic growth declined by about 4.4% in 2008 to 1.9% in 2009. As the global economy began to recover, however, Lesotho's gross domestic product (GDP) in 2010 grew by an estimated 3.8%. This recovery in economic growth can be attributed to both firming commodity prices and high government capital expenditures. The mining and construction sub-sectors, in particular, experienced some buoyancy. In addition, rising commodity prices led to the improved viability of mining activities, resulting in the reopening of some of the mines that had shut down at the peak of the crisis. Furthermore, the government's focus on infrastructure development is driving activity in the construction sector.

The global crisis badly affected Lesotho’s economy in 2009 and its outlook for 2010 and beyond. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth fell from 4.4% in 2008 to 1.1% in 2009 as the manufacturing and the mining sectors both shrank. The government estimates that employment in the manufacturing sector declined by 4.1% in 2009. Unemployment also increased because of layoffs in the textile industry and the mining sector in South Africa. The number of migrant mine workers in South Africa declined by 10% in the third quarter of 2009.