Malawi

As part of the peer review of Ireland, a team of examiners and the OECD secretariat visited Malawi in February 2014. The team met with the Ambassador, Irish development co-operation professionals, partner country civil servants, other bilateral and multilateral partners, and representatives of Irish and partner country civil society organisations, the private sector, and district authorities.

Real GDP growth slowed to 4.3% in 2011 from 6.3% in 2010 on account of foreign exchange and fuel shortages, which disrupted activities in sectors such as manufacturing and trade. The shortage of foreign exchange in 2011 was caused by the decline in earnings from Malawi’s major export commodity, tobacco, and suspension of donor budget support. Real GDP growth in 2012 is estimated at 2.0%, substantially lower than the 4.3% growth target. The sharp slowdown in the economy in 2012 was mainly due to the contraction in agricultural and manufacturing output. The agriculture sector, which dominates economic activities, shrank by 3.0% in 2012 on account of erratic rains and the collapse in tobacco auction prices. Real GDP growth in 2013 and 2014 is expected to rebound to 5.5% and 6.1%, respectively, anchored on the recovery in agriculture, manufacturing and wholesale and trade. The rebound is premised on a revival in tobacco production, an easing of the foreign exchange constraint, improved availability of fuel and a continuation of prudent macroeconomic policies.

La croissance du PIB réel a reculé, de 6.3 % en 2010 à 4.3 % en 2011, en raison de pénuries de devises et de carburant qui ont perturbé les activités de certains secteurs, tels que l’industrie manufacturière et le commerce. La pénurie de devises enregistrée en 2011 a été provoquée par une baisse des recettes provenant du tabac, principal produit d’exportation du Malawi, et par la suspension de l’appui budgétaire des donneurs. La croissance du PIB réel est estimée à 2 % en 2012, niveau sensiblement inférieur à l’objectif fixé (4.3 %). Le fort ralentissement de l’économie en 2012 a principalement été dû à un recul des productions agricole et manufacturière. Le secteur agricole, qui est le pivot de l’économie, a reculé de 3 % en 2012 en raison des pluies irrégulières et de l’effondrement des prix d’enchères du tabac. La croissance du PIB réel devrait rebondir à 5.5 % en 2013 et à 6.1 % en 2014, grâce à une reprise de l’agriculture, des industries manufacturières et du commerce de gros et de détail. Ce rebond dépendra d’une relance de la production de tabac, d’une amélioration des disponibilités en devises et en carburant et de la poursuite de politiques macroéconomiques prudentes.

Malawi’s economic growth in 2011 slowed to 5.8% from 6.7% in 2010 due to reduced donor inflows and shortages of foreign exchange and essential commodities such as fuel and inputs for manufacturing. The economy is projected to slow further, with growth falling to 5.0% and 5.2% in 2012 and 2013.

La croissance économique du Malawi est tombée de 6.7 % en 2010 à 5.8 % en 2011 en raison de la réduction des rentrées de fonds des donneurs et l’insuffisance de réserves de change et de produits de base indispensables tels que le carburant et les intrants pour la fabrication. L’économie devrait continuer de tourner au ralenti, et la croissance de chuter à 5 % et à 5.2 % en 2012 et 2013.

The political and macroeconomic environment remained stable in Malawi through 2010. Malawi's real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to fall to 6.7% in 2010 from 7.6% in 2009. The slight reduction in real GDP growth is largely attributed to reduced agriculture output for maize and tobacco due to the drought experienced in some parts of the country at the beginning of the 2009/10 growing season. The main driving force for economic growth in 2010 has been strong performance in mining and quarrying, construction, financial and insurance services and information and technology. Real GDP growth is forecast at 6.4% in 2011 and 6.0% in 2012 reflecting stability in uranium output and levelling off of productivity gains in the agriculture sector as the agricultural growth rate has peaked.