OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2003 Issue 1
Twice a year, the OECD Economic Outlook analyses the major trends that will mark the next two years. The present issue covers the outlook to the end of 2004 and examines the economic policies required to foster high and sustainable growth in member countries. Developments in selected major non-OECD economies are also evaluated.
In addition to the themes featured regularly, this issue contains five analytical chapters addressing the following questions: the telecommunications sector, sources of divergence in growth trends among the major economies, recent patterns and developments in foreign direct investment, and whether further trade and regulatory policy reforms would affect foreign direct investment flows and economic integration among OECD countries.
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Switzerland
The weakness of the external environment, especially in Europe, and the strength of the Swiss franc have continued to put a hold on activity, which stagnated in 2002. The pick-up in production linked to the international recovery should be close to ½ per cent in 2003, before accelerating to nearly 2 per cent in 2004, putting an end to the rise in unemployment. Lower inflation could result in virtual price stability.
The Swiss National Bank should maintain its expansionary monetary policy until the upturn is firmly established. A further cyclical deterioration in the federal budget in 2003 would be acceptable, but adopting an expansionary programme that erodes the structural deficit of the Confederation would not be desirable. More determined efforts to encourage competition would help increase growth potential.
Also available in: French
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