Brésil
Au Brésil, les répercussions de la réforme des politiques agricoles et commerciales sur la distribution des revenus suscitent des craintes liées à plusieurs facteurs. Tout d’abord, l’agriculture brésilienne, vaste et diversifiée, comprend un secteur commercial tourné vers l’exportation et un secteur familial insuffisamment développé, davantage spécialisé dans les produits en concurrence avec les importations.
This book contains the results of peer reviews of the competition law and policies of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico, and Peru. Each review provides information on the history and economic context for competition law, an outline of the provisions of the current law and policies, a review of institutional issues, a review of competition policy in specific regulated sectors, a review of competition advocacy, and a set of conclusions and recommendations.
This report assesses the development and application during the past five years of competition law and policy in Brazil. It follows an earlier OECD analysis, prepared in 2000, which reviewed the activities of the Brazilian Competition Policy System (BCPS) since enactment of Brazil’s current competition law in 1994.
Activity is showing signs of recovery, following a slowing in the second quarter. Private consumption continues to be strong, and investment is likely to bounce back. The trade and current account surpluses remain robust on the back of sustained good export performance. Financial conditions have been benign, even during the pre-election period, buttressed by a continued improvement in external vulnerability indicators.
Après un ralentissement au deuxième trimestre, l’activité donne des signes de reprise. La consommation privée reste bien orientée et l’investissement devrait repartir. Les excédents du commerce extérieur et des paiements courants demeurent considérables grâce aux performances toujours bonnes enregistrées à l’exportation. La situation financière a été rassurante, même durant la période préélectorale, sous l’effet de l’amélioration persistante des indicateurs de vulnérabilité externe.
This edition of OECD's periodic survey of Brazil's economy finds progress in achieving macroeconomic stability and good growth prospects but recommends consolidating macroeconomic adjustment, boosting innovation performance, and improving labour utilisation. A series of recommendations in each of these areas is included.
Brazil’s economic growth performance is likely to improve. Productivity has risen since macroeconomic stabilisation in the mid-1990s, underpinned by structural reforms, including trade, investment and product-market liberalisation. But macroeconomic and structural distortions remain, preventing Brazil from reaping the full benefits of stabilisation in terms of higher growth. Additional structural reform will therefore be needed to lift the economy’s growth potential over the medium-to-longer term, so as to narrow Brazil’s income gap relative to the OECD area, which has widened. Macroeconomic disarray during the 1980s and early 1990s is the main culprit for the fall in relative living standards. Three policy challenges are identified in this Survey: to consolidate macroeconomic adjustment, to boost innovation in the business sector and to improve formal labour utilisation.
Brazil has made considerable progress in recent years towards consolidating macroeconomic stability, which is a key framework condition for sustained growth. Monetary policy continues to respond swiftly to changes in the inflation outlook, anchoring expectations. Fiscal policy has been guided by debt sustainability considerations, delivering primary budget surpluses that have often exceeded the end-year targets. Nevertheless, while the public debt-to-GDP has been reduced, it remains high, especially in comparison with other emerging-market economies. Brazil’s overarching macroeconomic challenge is therefore to continue to reduce the public debt overhang while improving the quality of fiscal adjustment, which has so far been underpinned by revenue hikes, rather than a retrenchment of expenditure commitments. To do so, measures will need to be taken to arrest the increase in current spending, especially on pensions, paving the way for subsequently removing distortions and reducing the tax burden over the medium to longer term, once the debt-to-GDP ratio has been reduced in a sustainable manner. The favourable domestic macroeconomic environment, with falling inflation and improving growth prospects, appears propitious for reform towards the gradual phasing-out of directed credit and a reduction in compulsory reserve requirements.
Labour force participation is comparable to the OECD area for prime-age males. It is somewhat lower for females and is trending down for youths as a result of rising school enrolment. The labour market is placing an increasing premium on skills, making it particularly difficult for the less educated to find a job. Labour informality is pervasive and turnover high, especially for the less educated, discouraging investment in labour training and the acquisition of job-related skills, and perpetuating income disparities. The main policy challenge is to improve labour utilisation by reducing informality and fostering human capital accumulation on and off the job. A stable macroeconomy is a pre-condition for reducing unemployment, but a greater focus on activation within the current policy framework would be advisable. To close the remaining gender gap, female labour force participation in full-time jobs could be encouraged by increasing the supply of affordable child care and pre-school education. Labour turnover can be reduced by mitigating the incentives for negotiated separation, which currently arise from the design of severance insurance (FGTS) in the event of unfair dismissal. Skill marketability can be enhanced through the introduction of a national skills certification system, and labour training can become more cost-effective through increased contestability in existing programmes.
The 2005 Survey argued that the foundations for sustained economic growth were by and large in place. This assessment remains valid. The macroeconomic environment continues to improve: fiscal policy has stayed on track; the public debt-to-GDP ratio has trended down since 2003, although it remains comparatively high by emerging-market standards; and inflation has been tame at its lowest level since the adoption of inflation targeting in 1999 and well anchored around the current target of 4.5%. Ongoing external adjustment is making the economy increasingly resilient to external shocks, and asset prices are performing well in the face of the current tightening of global liquidity. Efforts to reduce external vulnerability, particularly with respect to public external indebtedness, are paying off: Brazil’s sovereign credit has been upgraded, and interest premia are at historically low levels. The outlook for inflation and growth remains benign. At the same time, income inequality, which is high in Brazil, is coming down as a result of rising earnings and the successful implementation to date of targeted income support initiatives for the poor under the Bolsa Família programme. Continuous growth is the key to maintaining progress on this front. But there are some macroeconomic and structural problems, which, unless addressed, will continue to act as a drag on growth, preventing Brazil from reaping the full benefits of macroeconomic stabilisation. Against this background, the overarching medium-term policy objective for Brazil is to raise the economy’s growth potential so as to close the gap in income per capita with the OECD area, which has widened since the 1980s.
Brazil’s main challenge in innovation policy is to encourage the business sector to engage in productivity-enhancing innovative activities. At 1% of GDP, R&D spending (both public and private) is comparatively low by OECD standards and is carried out predominantly by the government. Most scientists work in public universities and research institutions, rather than in the business sector. Output indicators, such as the number of patents held abroad, suggest that there is much scope for improvement. Academic patenting effort is being stepped up and should be facilitated by the easing of restrictions on the transfer and sharing of proceeds of intellectual property rights between businesses and public universities and research institutions. Innovation policy is beginning to focus on the potential synergies among science and technology promotion, R&D support and trade competitiveness. To be successful in boosting business innovation, these policies will need to be complemented by measures aimed at tackling the shortage of skills in the labour force; this shortage is among the most important deterrents to innovation in Brazil, particularly against the backdrop of a widening gap in tertiary educational attainment with respect to the OECD area.
Brazil is Latin America’s largest energy consumer, accounting for over 40% of the region’s consumption. Its energy mix is dominated by renewable energy sources and oil. In the Reference Scenario, primary energy demand is projected to grow annually at 2.1%, from 200 Mtoe in 2004 to 352 Mtoe in 2030. Energy demand is 38 Mtoe lower in the Alternative Policy Scenario, growing at just 1.7% per year, thanks to energy-efficiency improvements. Electricity and oil make up most of the reduction.