GDP is projected to contract by 1.8% in 2023 and by 1.3% in 2024, before rising by 1.9% in 2025. Tight capital controls, rising inflation and high policy uncertainty will further constrain consumption and investment in the short term. Exports are set to recover in 2024, following a severe drought in 2023. Inflation has surpassed 100% and will continue to rise in the near term due to expectations of a currency devaluation.

Real GDP growth is projected to slow from 1.9% in 2023 to 1.4% in 2024 before recovering to 2.1% in 2025. The accumulated impact of higher interest rates and cost of living pressures will damp spending by households and businesses over the coming year, though this will be partly offset by continued strong working-age population growth and the ongoing recovery in education and tourism exports. The unemployment rate is projected to rise moderately, reaching 4.4% by mid-2025. Inflation will moderate, aided by abating global inflationary pressures, though inflation of some services components is anticipated to remain elevated throughout 2024.

Economic activity has slowed significantly and is expected to contract by 0.4% in 2023. High inflation is weighing on consumption, rising interest rates and labour shortages are damping investment, and external demand has weakened. Growth will slowly pick up to 0.6% in 2024 and 1.5% in 2025. Higher real wages will support consumption in 2024. Investment will remain subdued because of elevated borrowing costs and rising labour costs, and export demand will be held back due to global macroeconomic tightening. Unemployment will increase slightly.

GDP growth is expected to weaken from 1.4% in 2023 to 1.1% in 2024, before increasing to 1.5% in 2025. Household consumption will slow as purchasing power is held back by slowing employment growth, while tight financing conditions restrain investment. Belgium is highly exposed to international economic conditions and a further loss of competitiveness due to wage growth. Headline inflation is projected to increase to 3% in 2024 as energy prices rise and core inflation stays high, before declining to 2.4% in 2025 as economic slack alleviates underlying inflationary pressures.

Real GDP is projected to grow by 3.0% in 2023, 1.8% in 2024 and 2.0% in 2025. Economic activity rebounded strongly in the first half of 2023 driven by an exceptional agriculture harvest and resilient household consumption. Despite tight financial conditions, household spending will remain strong due to buoyant employment growth, declining inflation, and higher social transfers. Private investment will recover slightly throughout 2024 as monetary policy eases. Though commodity prices are declining, agricultural products will drive a continued expansion of exports. Inflation has declined markedly over 2023 and will converge toward the target band during 2024.

GDP growth is projected to slow to 1.7% in 2023 before recovering to 2.8% in 2024 and 3.0% in 2025. Low interest rates fuelled a household credit boom, boosting private consumption, but this is easing. The catch‑up in the disbursement of EU funds is expected to contribute positively to investment in 2024 and beyond. Inflation is high in 2023 but is expected to moderate during 2024. The large, planned minimum wage increases in 2024 create risks of more persistent inflation, while changes in global energy prices could impact exports and inflation.

Real GDP growth will drop to 0.8% in 2024, reflecting slowing domestic demand in the wake of higher borrowing costs and weakening exports, before recovering to 1.9% in 2025 as improved global conditions strengthen exports. Immigration will continue to boost private spending and labour supply. Price pressures will ebb in the face of slowing demand and rising unemployment. Were unemployment to rise faster than expected, there could be a substantial fall off in households’ consumption demand and a deeper downturn.

After zero growth in 2023, output will increase by 1.8% in 2024 and by 2.1% in 2025. Rising real wages, due to lower inflation, and falling interest rates will allow consumption to pick up in 2024. Business confidence has improved, but policy uncertainty will weigh on investment growth during early 2024. Strong demand for minerals will continue to sustain exports. Headline inflation will continue abating and will reach the central bank target in the second half of 2024, while core inflation will fall at a slower pace.

Economic growth will rebound only moderately to 5.2% in 2023 and then slow to 4.7% and 4.2% in 2024 and 2025 respectively. Consumption growth will likely remain subdued due to increased precautionary savings, gloomier prospects for employment creation and heightened uncertainty. The ongoing adjustment in the real estate sector continues with falling investment and continued financial stress. Relaxation of some demand-side restrictions is expected to stabilise sales, aided by lower mortgage costs. Excessive indebtedness of local investment vehicles constrains the delivery of urban infrastructure projects. Exports will remain weak amid sluggish global growth. Consumer price inflation will remain very low, though sustained deflation is unlikely. A deeper correction in the real estate market is a key risk. Trade sanctions may disrupt production at some high-tech manufacturers.

GDP is expected to grow at moderate rates of 1.2% in 2023 and 1.4% in 2024 before picking up to 3% in 2025. High inflation, interest rates and policy uncertainty will weigh on domestic demand in 2024. The central bank has raised interest rates to a 25-year high to bring inflation under control. Headline inflation has started to come down and is projected to return to the 2-4% target range in the second half of 2025.

GDP will grow by 3.5% in 2024 and 3.6% in 2025. Domestic demand is projected to gradually strengthen in 2024, as monetary policy continues to ease and labour market conditions gradually improve. External demand is expected to soften in 2024 and pick up again in 2025 as global conditions improve. Inflation is projected to reach 1.9% in 2024 and 3.1% in 2025, just above the 3% target, as improved economic conditions lead to an increase in domestic inflationary pressures.

Output growth is expected to remain broadly resilient, picking up slightly from 2.5% in 2023 to 2.6% in 2024 and 2.7% in 2025. Rising public sector investment and resilient private consumption are projected to support demand, offsetting subdued exports. Inflation, which remains high, will decline gradually as labour inputs and excess capacity will remain relatively scarce.

GDP growth is expected to contract by 0.3% in 2023, before picking up to 1.6% and 2.1% in 2024 and 2025, respectively. Elevated inflation and tight monetary policy are weighing on domestic demand. Slower global growth and trade will moderate exports and activity, notably in manufacturing. Private consumption will pick up in 2024, underpinned by growing real wages. Inflation will continue to decline and get close to 3% – the upper boundary of the tolerance band – in early 2024. The labour market will remain tight with an unemployment rate below 3%. Volatility in energy supply and geopolitical tensions remain major risks. Shocks to commodity prices could make inflation more persistent.

GDP growth is projected to slow to 1.2% in 2024 before recovering to 1.5% in 2025. After a large surge since mid-2022, the growth of the pharmaceutical sector is expected to moderate and exports will lose momentum despite improving foreign demand. Tight financial conditions and weak economic prospects will keep investment low. Nominal wage growth will strengthen, supporting consumption and keeping core inflation above 2% into 2025. Unemployment will increase as firms adjust to higher labour costs and weaker demand. Key risks include a more severe correction in housing and real estate markets and the inflationary impact of labour market developments.

Growth should return in 2024 but will remain subdued at 0.6%, while the labour market is expected to deteriorate. In 2025, growth should reach 2.5% as the recovery in consumption picks up. Inflation has come down substantially, but planned tax increases will bring a temporary spike at the beginning of 2024. Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside.

GDP growth is projected to slow to 0.6% in 2023 before strengthening gradually to 0.9% in 2024 and 1.5% in 2025. Private consumption will be supported by tight labour markets and increasing real incomes as inflation recedes. At the same time, higher costs of financing and uncertainty will weigh on private investment. Wage growth is projected to ease only gradually over the projection period. Employment bottlenecks in services will keep core inflation elevated until mid-2025, despite ongoing reductions in headline inflation.

GDP is projected to stall in 2023 and grow by a moderate 0.9% in 2024, before picking up to 1.8% in 2025. As energy prices ease, private consumption is set to recover moderately in 2024 despite the drag from higher interest rates, which together with declining house prices will weigh on residential investment. Unemployment is expected to slowly increase until mid-2024 before starting to decline, as the economy grows and employment growth gains momentum. Lower energy prices and weak demand should help bring headline inflation down from 7.2% in 2022 to 4.5% in 2023 and 2.2% in 2024.

GDP growth is expected to ease from 0.9% in 2023 to 0.8% in 2024 before picking up to 1.2% in 2025. After a slowdown in 2024, exports will recover in 2025 owing to a moderate improvement in external demand. Continued tightness in the labour market will maintain upward pressure on wages, allowing for some gains in purchasing power and a gradual improvement in private consumption, as inflation is expected to ease from 5.7% in 2023 to 2.7% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025. However, less favourable financing conditions due to tighter monetary policy will continue to weigh on investment and consumption.

The economy is projected to grow by 0.6% in 2024 and 1.2% in 2025, after contracting slightly in 2023. Decreasing inflation and rising wages will support real incomes and private consumption. High interest rates will weigh on residential investment and damp export demand for investment goods. However, non‑residential investment will gradually pick up due to support from high corporate savings and investment needs related to the relocation of supply chains, digitalisation and renewable energy expansion. This will be supported by rising public investment and fiscal incentives for green investments. Exports will slowly recover as global demand strengthens.

Growth is projected to slow from 2.4% in 2023 to 2.0% in 2024 before picking up to 2.4% in 2025. Real consumption growth has slowed due to high living costs and damage from recent weather events, but will pick up as gradually declining inflation and continued employment growth raise households’ purchasing power. Improvements in the business environment, increasing disbursements of European Union funds and strengthening global economic conditions will support investment and exports. The decline in headline inflation will be slowed by wage pressures arising from labour shortages.

Economic activity is projected to rise by 2.4% in 2024 and 2.7% in 2025, after a decline of 0.6% in 2023. Lower inflation, mainly driven by energy and food prices, is expected to support a gradual pick‑up in investment and private consumption. The main risks around the outlook are related to the pace of the decline in core inflation and the outcome of negotiations with the EU regarding the delivery of EU funds.

Economic growth will drop to 2.0% in 2024 and edge up to 2.3% in 2025. Private consumption will ease as real wage growth is modest. Business investment will moderate as financial conditions continue to deteriorate and confidence remains lacklustre. Despite tighter financial conditions, housing investment will pick up to satisfy pent-up demand. Public investment will decline in 2024 and remain subdued in 2025. Goods exports and foreign tourism will slow. The unemployment rate will rise gradually to around 4.5%.

Following a strong outcome in FY 2022-23, real GDP growth is projected to slow to 6.3% in FY 2023-24 and 6.1% in FY 2024-25 on account of adverse weather-related events and the weakening international outlook. Surging services exports and public investment will continue to drive the economy. Inflation will decline progressively, with corresponding improvements of purchasing power. This, along with the end of the El Niño weather pattern, productivity gains from recent policy reforms, and improved global conditions, will help economic activity to strengthen, with projected real GDP growth of 6.5% in FY 2025-26.

Economic activity continues at a brisk pace, with real GDP growth of 4.9% in 2023 and 5.2% in 2024 and 2025. Household consumption, despite modest real wage gains, will remain the major engine of the economy. Monetary tightening and slowing global trade will weigh on fixed capital formation, but housing construction activity is expected to increase, notably in the new capital city Nusantara. Two years of monetary tightening have pushed down inflation, which is projected to be around 2.5% in 2024 and 2025.

GDP is set to contract by 0.6% in 2023, as heightened global uncertainties, a weaker outlook in main trading partners and high interest rates weigh on exports and investment. With price pressures subsiding, GDP growth is projected to pick up to 2.4% in 2024 and 2.9% in 2025. Modified domestic demand growth, which removes some distortions due to the high share of multinationals, will decline to 2.1% in 2023, before slowing further to 1.7% in 2024 and returning to 2.1% in 2025.

The economic impact of the evolving conflict following Hamas’ terrorist attacks on Israel on 7 October is highly uncertain and depends on the duration, scope and intensity of the conflict. The projections assume that the impact will be largely concentrated in the last quarter of 2023, leading to a temporary but pronounced slowdown. GDP growth is projected at 2.3% in 2023 and 1.5% in 2024 before recovering to 4.5% in 2025. Supply side disruptions due to the security situation and the significant decline in the civilian labour force, together with weakening economic sentiment, will mainly affect private consumption and investment. A drop in tourism will weigh on export growth.

GDP growth is expected to slow to 0.7% in both 2023 and 2024, before picking up modestly to 1.2% in 2025. Low wage growth and high inflation have eroded real incomes, financial conditions have tightened, and most of the exceptional fiscal support related to the energy crisis has been withdrawn, weighing on private consumption and investment. The projected decline of inflation, targeted income tax cuts and the pick-up in public investment related to New Generation EU (NGEU) funds will only partly offset these headwinds. Risks are tilted to the downside. The main downside risk is a larger-than-expected tightening of financial conditions due to tighter euro area monetary policy or an increase in the risk premium on Italian government securities. On the upside, a significant pick-up in public investment related to the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP) could boost growth in 2024 and 2025.

Real GDP growth is projected at 1.0% in 2024 and 1.2% in 2025, mainly driven by domestic demand. Private consumption will be supported by pent-up demand, stronger wage growth and the new economic package. Government subsidies for green and digital investment and high corporate profits will boost business investment, despite higher uncertainty. Headline inflation is projected to moderate but remain around 2% as wage growth gains momentum in 2024-25.

GDP growth is expected to ease to 1.4% in 2023, before rebounding to 2.3% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025. Elevated interest rates and energy prices are weighing on private consumption and investment in the near term. Exports will strengthen as semiconductor sales recover. Energy and food prices have pushed up consumer prices, but inflation will gradually moderate and reach the target in 2025. Unemployment is set to increase from the current historically low level as weak demand reduces hiring.

Real GDP is projected to grow by 1.9% in 2024 and 2.7% in 2025 after contracting slightly in 2023. Declining inflation and strong nominal wage growth will bolster private consumption. Tight financing conditions will weigh on housing and business investment, while public investment growth will accelerate as EU funds are absorbed. However, skilled labour shortages and weak capacity in infrastructure planning risk hindering the implementation of investment plans.

The economy is projected to contract in 2023 by 0.4%, before growing by 1.7% in 2024 and 3.1% in 2025. Although inflationary pressures and supply chain disruptions are receding, higher than expected oil prices have slowed the decline of inflation and will lead to a contraction in private consumption in 2023. Uncertainty and geopolitical tensions will weaken demand in key trading partners and contribute to a slowdown in exports. Public investment, strengthened by EU funds, will support growth. The labour market remains tight with robust wage growth and shortages of high-skilled workers.

GDP will shrink by about 1.1% in 2023, driven down by a deep contraction of the key financial services sector, before rising by 1.4% in 2024 and 3.1% in 2025, supported by monetary policy easing. The unemployment rate will keep increasing up to the end of next year. Headline inflation will rebound at the beginning of next year, due to base effects and wage indexation, before declining towards 2% in 2025.

The economy is projected to expand by 2.5% in 2024 and by 2% in 2025, after growing by 3.4% in 2023. Consumption will be supported by a strong labour market. Investment will be backed by public infrastructure projects which are expected to be finalised in 2024 and by the nearshoring of manufacturing activities to Mexico. Export dynamism will be mitigated by milder growth in the United States. Inflation will edge down to 3.9% in 2024 and 3.2% in 2025.

After slowing to 0.2% in 2023, GDP is projected to pick up gradually to 0.5% in 2024 and 1.1% in 2025. Headline inflation is expected to fall to 3.7% in 2024 and to be close to target by the end of 2025. As the labour market remains tight, core inflation will remain elevated at 3.9% in 2024 before gradually falling towards 2% by the end of 2025. Export growth is expected to improve in 2024 and 2025 as external demand recovers.

Real GDP growth is projected to ease to 1.3% in 2024 before picking up to 1.9% in 2025. Higher interest rates are weighing on consumption and housing investment, while lower global growth is restraining inbound tourism and reducing the price of commodity exports. Strong net inward migration is set to put a floor under aggregate growth. Many of the migrants are of working age, and labour force growth has been strong, easing labour market tensions. However, employment growth recently turned negative and the unemployment rate is rising.

Economic growth has slowed amid high inflation and monetary policy tightening. Mainland GDP growth is projected to slow to 1.1% in 2023 and 0.5% in 2024, before picking up to 1.3% in 2025 as domestic demand strengthens. Headline inflation has been declining on the back of lower electricity prices and is set to ease further. Underlying inflation will drift down more slowly, held up by wage pressures and the lagged effects of the weakening of the Norwegian currency. The unemployment rate is expected to rise as economic activity softens, but to remain around its pre-pandemic level.

GDP growth is projected to decline to 0% this year, and to gradually pick up to 2.3% in 2024 and 2.7% in 2025. High interest rates and inflation, political uncertainty and severe weather are constraining domestic demand. Government efforts to revamp infrastructure will support investment, despite high interest rates and implementation challenges. Tourism and copper production are set to rebound, enhancing exports. Inflation is expected to continue to slow and reach the 1-3% target range by early 2024, supporting private consumption.

Real GDP is expected to grow by 0.4% in 2023 as high inflation and restrictive monetary policy weaken domestic demand. Growth should recover to 2.6% in 2024 and pick up to 2.9% in 2025 as consumption rebounds and is accompanied by robust investment, supported by EU Recovery and Resilience funds. Headline inflation has halved over 2023 but core inflation is declining more slowly due to a robust labour market. Inflation is projected to reach 3.4% by the end of 2025. Persistent inflation or additional fiscal spending pose upside risks to inflation, while an escalation of the war in Ukraine could lower growth.

GDP growth is projected to be 2.2% in 2023, 1.2% in 2024 and 2.0% in 2025. Low business and household confidence, modest global growth and high uncertainty are holding back activity, although the tight labour market will support wage growth and private consumption, and the implementation of the Recovery and Resilience Plan (RRP) will boost investment. A progressive strengthening of external demand will support exports in 2024‑25. As energy and food prices stabilise and labour demand slows, inflation will fall to 3.3% in 2024 and 2.4% in 2025.

Real GDP growth will decline to 1.9% in 2023, remain below potential at 3% in 2024, and pick up to 3.3% in 2025. High borrowing costs and slower income growth will weigh on private spending. Reduced job creation will see unemployment remain above pre-pandemic rates. Major infrastructure spending will support activity while exports recover due to better international conditions. With spare capacity in the economy, inflation will fall to 3.5% by the end of 2025, the top of the target band. Sustained cost pressure could, however, cause core inflation to stay higher for longer.

GDP growth is projected to pick-up from 1.1% in 2023 to 1.8% in 2024 and 2.4% in 2025. As inflation abates, real household income growth will bolster consumer demand in 2024 and 2025. Tighter financial conditions will weigh on private investment while EU recovery and resilience funds will sustain public investment throughout the projection period. The recovery of foreign demand will support exports in 2024 and 2025. Risks to the projections are skewed to the downside. They are mainly related to lower absorption of EU funds, which would hamper investment, and higher energy prices, which could lead to persistent inflation.

GDP growth is projected to slow to 1.4% in 2023, reflecting weaker domestic and external demand, but will pick up to 1.8% in 2024 and 2.7% in 2025, as disinflation continues to support real incomes and global economic conditions improve. EU funds and the government’s flood recovery measures will sustain investment. The tight labour market will fuel stronger wage growth, limiting the pace of disinflation.

GDP growth is projected to slow to 0.7% in 2023 before increasing by 1% in 2024 and 1.2% in 2025. Investment in machinery and equipment for energy production will remain strong, despite tighter financing conditions. Net exports will weigh on growth as most machinery and equipment are imported and external demand has weakened. Private consumption growth will ease amid still high inflation and lower household purchasing power but will remain positive, helped by employment returning to its pre‑COVID‑19 level. Inflation will gradually return to the target range, although risks remain to the upside.

GDP is projected to grow by 1.4% in 2024 and 2.0% in 2025. Domestic demand will be the key driver of growth. Private consumption and investment growth will moderate due to tight financial conditions and persistent inflation in 2024, before picking up in 2025. External demand will be less supportive of growth than in previous years. Inflation is projected to slightly increase to 3.7% in 2024, before decreasing to 2.3% in 2025.

After a projected 0.5% contraction in 2023, GDP is projected to rise by 0.9% in 2024 and 2.6% in 2025. In the near term, elevated inflation will continue to weigh on households’ real disposable income and private investment, which is also held back by higher construction costs and declining demand for manufactured goods. Private consumption growth is expected to start regaining momentum in early 2024 as real disposable incomes start recovering.

Real GDP is projected to grow by 0.9% in 2024 and 1.4% in 2025. Tighter financial conditions, heightened uncertainty and weaker global trade growth will weigh on private investment and exports. Rises in rents and electricity prices will push inflation above 2% in 2024, before it returns to the Swiss National Bank’s target range of 0‑2% in 2025. These higher prices will moderate household consumption. Further weakness in foreign demand, energy supply disruptions and a sharp house price correction are key downside risks to activity.

After a strong first half of the year, economic growth is projected to reach 4.5% in 2023, before slowing to 2.9% in 2024 and 3.2% in 2025. Tighter financial conditions, subdued economic sentiment and stubbornly high inflation will moderate household consumption. However, investment growth will remain elevated due to ongoing reconstruction activity following the earthquakes at the beginning of this year. Exports will gain traction in 2025, reflecting stronger global growth. Inflation is projected to decline over the projection period, but will remain considerably high.

GDP growth is projected to pick up from 0.5% in 2023 to 0.7% in 2024 and 1.2% in 2025. Private expenditure will replace government consumption and investment as the main driver of growth, helped by easing price pressures. Headline inflation will subside from historically high levels but remain above target over most of the projection period. Core inflation will linger at 3.8% in 2024 and 2.6% in 2025 on the back of the tight, albeit easing, labour market. Unemployment will edge up to 4.9% in 2025.

Real GDP is projected to grow by 2.4% in 2023, 1.5% in 2024, and 1.7% in 2025. Growth in private consumption and investment are expected to moderate in response to the effects of tighter monetary and financial conditions. Employment growth will slow further in response to weaker demand and the unemployment rate will continue to edge up through the first half of 2024. Inflation will decline, allowing for monetary policy easing in the second half of 2024 and a recovery of domestic demand growth in 2025. The outlook could worsen if the effects of tighter policy rates are stronger than assumed or lead to financial stress. A stronger decline in inflation combined with resilient employment could lead to a greater easing of financial conditions and an improved growth outlook.

GDP growth will remain just under 4% this fiscal year, but is projected to pick up to 4.8% in FY 2024 and 5.1% in FY 2025. Egypt faces high inflation and balance of payments difficulties, but fiscal support has sustained private consumption, which will gradually gain momentum as inflation moderates. In contrast, business investment has contracted sharply due to tighter financial conditions and increased uncertainty, and is projected to recover only gradually.

Growth is set to recover to 3.3% in 2023 and strengthen further to 3.6% in 2024 and 3.8% in 2025. A rebound in agricultural production and the services sector, particularly in inbound tourism, will support overall economic activity. The Marrakesh–Safi earthquake had a high human cost but did not disrupt the major productive activities. Inflation should gradually decline over the next two years, benefiting from easing commodity prices and monetary policy tightening. Key risks include a prolongation of the drought, a slowdown in European demand and commodity price shocks.

The economy is stabilising. The business sector and the labour market have adapted to the war, with GDP growth expected to be positive, at 5% in 2023, 4% in 2024 and 4.5% in 2025. High levels of risk and uncertainty in the war economy hold back private investment, while exports are constrained by logistical issues. Inflation is declining, allowing a lowering of the key policy rate. The economy remains highly dependent on international financial assistance.