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After a slow recovery from the pandemic, the Mexican economy has navigated well the global environment of tightening financial conditions and heightened uncertainty. Fiscal policy has a robust track record in attaining fiscal targets and keeping public debt low. Higher tax revenues would allow to maintain fiscal prudence and to address important spending needs in productivity enhancing areas, such as education, infrastructure, the digital and green transitions, and the fight against corruption and crime. Mexico has large potential to attract investment from companies looking to relocate their operations to North America. This is also a significant opportunity to spread the benefits of trade throughout the country and to create more and better value chain linkages. Fully harnessing these opportunities will require addressing long-standing challenges related to transport and digital connectivity, regulations or the rule of law, and shifting to renewables. Improving education outcomes and reducing gender gaps and informality would help to continue the recent fall in income inequality, while also strengthening the country’s growth potential. Improving access to adequate housing and more coordination across, urban, housing and transport infrastructure policies would enhance Mexicans’ living conditions, reduce urban sprawl and improve urban mobility.
SPECIAL FEATURE: IMPROVING HOUSING AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT POLICIES
Growth has held up better in Egypt than in neighbouring countries until recently but inflation has reached very high levels and financing conditions have tightened along with foreign currency shortages. In this context, Egypt is stepping up economic reform efforts. The exchange rate needs to become more flexible with monetary policy geared to bring inflation down to target. High public debt makes Egypt more vulnerable to external shocks. Committing to a credible consolidation strategy is key to restore public finance health, which would improve investor confidence and thereby reduce debt servicing costs. While expanding cash transfers to the most vulnerable, broad-based energy subsidies should be phased out, which would also reduce emissions. As public investment has expanded substantially, further efforts to rationalise large-scale construction projects should be pursued, while allocating resources to green investment. To revive private sector growth, the regulatory burden and the state footprint ought to be reduced, and ongoing reforms including the divestment plan should be implemented fully and effectively. As the working-age population will expand with a rising education level, younger generations need to be better integrated into the labour market. This requires reducing labour taxation, enhancing public employment support and better aligning skills to labour market needs.
SPECIAL FEATURES: IMPROVING THE BUSINESS CLIMATE TO REVIVE PRIVATE SECTOR GROWTH; PROMOTING BETTER-QUALITY JOB CREATION FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH
The Kazakh government has undertaken crucial legal and regulatory reforms to improve the governance and performance of its state-owned enterprises (SOEs), but further reforms are needed. This review describes and assesses the corporate governance framework of the Kazakh SOE sector against the OECD Guidelines on Corporate Governance of State-Owned Enterprises. It makes recommendations to help the Kazakh authorities reform their state-owned sector and align the exercise of state ownership and the governance of SOEs with international best practices.
This report highlights key policy developments up to 2024 and the latest trends affecting services trade and digital trade. It also indicates best practices and the countries that lead in services reforms. The OECD Services Trade Restrictiveness Index (STRI) provides annually updated, comparable information on regulations affecting trade in services across 50 countries and 22 sectors from 2014 to 2024. The OECD’s quantification of services regimes across countries and over time seeks to inform the decisions of policy makers and regulators, to convey transparent and accessible information to exporters, and to provide a source of data for academic research on drivers and impediments to services trade.
This report presents developments of the work of the Inclusive Forum on Carbon Mitigation Approaches (IFCMA) to the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors, and reflect on the IFCMA’s achievements one year on from its launch in February 2023.
The OECD Territorial Review of the Brussels-Capital Region, Belgium, provides an in-depth assessment of the trends, challenges and opportunities for sustainable and inclusive urban development in the region. It aims to help tackle the so-called ‘Brussels paradox’ between a highly performing region in terms of economic wealth creation and competitiveness but relatively poor social conditions. The region is also grappling with a shortage of affordable and quality housing, as well as several mobility challenges, including a high reliance on individual cars and traffic congestion, resulting in high commuting times and pollution levels, despite good accessibility to public transport. Although a comprehensive urban and land-use planning system exists, there is a lack of co-ordination with the surrounding regions and municipalities to drive more effective policies on housing, mobility, and other infrastructure investments. This review also examines the governance and institutional framework and suggests policy actions to strengthen co-ordination and co-operation mechanisms, and promote incremental collaboration at the metropolitan level. Finally, the review provides recommendations to enhance public finances in the region, focusing on better compensating for its additional charges, co-ordinating public investment among levels of government more efficiently, and establishing a metropolitan fund.
The global economy proved resilient in 2023, but there are signs that growth is easing as restrictive monetary policy takes effect. Global growth is projected to remain moderate in 2024 and 2025, with inflation declining towards target in most countries by 2025. Key near term risks include high geopolitical tensions, particularly if the conflict in the Middle East were to disrupt energy markets, and uncertainty about the strength of the ongoing impact from higher interest rates.
The Interim Report says that monetary policy should remain prudent to ensure that inflation returns durably to target, though policy interest rates can be lowered as inflation declines. Governments need to focus on ensuring fiscal sustainability, including through measures to reduce future spending pressures. Structural policy reforms are needed to strengthen the foundations for sustainable growth, with key priorities being to accelerate decarbonisation, revive global trade and improve educational outcomes.
The Interim Report is an update on the assessment in the OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2023 Issue 2 (Number 114).
This publication presents guidance for the compilation of distributional results on household income, consumption and saving consistent with national accounts totals. These results are a key input for evidence-based policies targeting inequality and fostering inclusive growth, providing insights into key dimensions of material well-being across household groups. The results complement existing inequality measures by including elements that are often lacking from micro statistics and by providing inequality measures consistent with macroeconomic aggregates, broadening the scope for analyses, while also capturing households and transactions that are typically underrepresented in micro data. Moreover, while the estimates do require a number of statistical choices and assumptions, they have a high degree of international comparability because of the common methodology and their alignment to national accounts results. The handbook provides an overview of the conceptual framework underlying the distributional results and discusses various aspects in relation to the compilation and presentation of the distributional results. It aims to assist compilers in deriving high-quality distributional results and to provide users with more insights into the main benefits of these results as well as into the way that the results have been derived.
Italy has weathered recent crises well. A strong fiscal policy response, enhanced competitiveness and improved banking sector health have supported growth in recent years. But public debt is high and spending pressures are rising from population ageing, higher interest rates, and the green and digital transitions. A steady fiscal consolidation is needed over several years to put debt on a more prudent path. Growth in spending needs to be contained, but public investment in the National Recovery and Resilience Plan should be protected to minimise adverse effects on growth. The ongoing civil justice and public administration reforms will support growth by raising business investment and facilitating the implementation of public investment plans. Regulatory barriers to competition in services should be reduced. Raising employment, including by expanding access to early childhood education to reduce barriers to female labour market participation, would make growth more inclusive. Additional policy efforts are needed to accelerate the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate change. Renewable power generation has advanced, but complex permitting procedures that hold back the installation of renewable energy capacity need to be simplified.
SPECIAL FEATURE: Achieving the energy and climate transition
Japan has navigated the dual shock of the pandemic and the energy crisis well. However, significant headwinds from weak global growth, geopolitical tensions and high inflation highlight the importance of enhancing the Japanese economy’s resilience to shocks. In a context of inflation, which has risen above target, and pressures from divergent monetary policy from peers, adjustments to monetary policy settings have commenced. Given high public debt, fiscal consolidation to rebuild fiscal buffers, underpinned by a credible medium-term fiscal framework to put the debt-to-GDP ratio on a clear downward path, is key. Longer-term sustainability also requires reducing greenhouse gas emissions in line with government targets, calling for green investment, innovation and carbon pricing. Reforms to improve the innovation framework and incentives for start-ups are key to boost productivity and address ageing pressures. Removing obstacles to the employment of women and older persons and making greater use of foreign workers are also essential to counter demographic headwinds. Strengthening the financial position of young people and policies to support families and children, such as improved parental leave, would help to reverse the downward trend in the fertility rate.
SPECIAL FEATURE: ADDRESSING DEMOGRAPHIC HEADWINDS
Following a robust recovery, growth has slowed and the economy has been running at two speeds. Headline inflation has fallen, but underlying price pressures remain high. While the public finances are robust with a budget surplus and low public debt, population ageing poses long-term risks to the social model, calling for efficiency gains at the local level. Ambitious greenhouse gas emission reduction targets and policies are in place, but further reforms are needed to advance the green transition. A reduction in barriers to working longer hours, extending working lives for young and older people, and international recruitment can help to address persistent labour shortages. The demographic, digital and green transitions will transform jobs and skills requirements, calling for an agile education and training system throughout working life.
SPECIAL FEATURE: ADDRESSING LABOUR AND SKILLS SHORTAGES
The Brazilian economy rebounded strongly after the Covid-19 pandemic. Resilient domestic demand, supported by social transfers, continues to drive growth. Inflation is decreasing, providing room for further monetary policy easing. However, public debt remains high, calling for a credible fiscal framework and improved spending efficiency. The planned reform of the consumption tax system will reduce compliance costs significantly. Productivity has declined over the past decade, and rekindling it will require further structural reforms. Stringent regulations and administrative burdens in goods and services markets are hampering productivity growth, although recent reforms have addressed some issues. Supporting female labour force participation and reducing informality would improve labour markets. Expanding access to early childhood education, especially for single mothers and those with low incomes, can allow more women to enter the labour market and improve learning outcomes. Despite significant public spending on education, a more targeted resource allocation can help to address inequalities in opportunities. Enhancing infrastructure investment through better planning and coordination between federal and subnational governments would help to address longstanding infrastructure bottlenecks. A consistent enforcement of the Forest Code and the adoption of new technologies will be key for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
This new web format for Country Notes on Fossil Fuel Support provides interactive on-line access to the latest data from the OECD Inventory of Support Measures for Fossil Fuels by country – identifying and estimating the value of support arising from policies that encourage the production or consumption of fossil fuels. The web version allows users to download, share and play with the data. Interactive graphics enable data visualisation, in national currency, by beneficiary and by energy product. These Country Notes provide, for each of the 50 economies covered in the Inventory, a snapshot of energy market structure, the current state of energy prices and taxes, and recent developments and trends in fossil fuel support. Data and country notes for the EU Eastern Partnership (EaP) countries have been collected and prepared as part of the GREEN Action Task Force.
The Digital Education Outlook 2023 provides a comparative, thematic analysis of how countries shape or could shape their digital ecosystem. Student information systems (or Education Management Information System - EMIS), learning management systems, digital assessment platforms, study and careers guidance: what are the different components of countries’ digital education ecosystem? How and to what extent do countries leverage teachers' digital competences and the latest opportunities offered by artificial intelligence (AI)? How can countries make the most of their digital ecosystem so that it is trustworthy, useful, effective, and equitable? How do and can countries allow for digital education to continue to improve and innovate education? Based on numerous country examples coming from an OECD survey on countries’ digital education infrastructure and governance and from desk research, the report shows where countries stand and where they could be going from there to benefit from the digital transformation. It also points to opportunities, guidelines and guardrails about the effective and equitable use of AI in education.
The report covers most OECD countries and a few partner countries. It will be of interest to policy makers, academics and all education stakeholders interested in the digital transformation of education systems. Country Digital Education Ecosystems and Governance: A Companion to Digital Education Outlook 2023 supplements this publication by providing detailed and comprehensive information for each country.
Over the past few decades, economies and technologies have changed in ways that have made people’s economic prospects more insecure. While non-standard work and digital transformation have created opportunities for many, they have also exposed individuals to fluctuations in their incomes, known as "income instability", as have major recent shocks. Recognising that individuals’ jobs and circumstances can change multiple times in a year, this report uses novel techniques to identify who is most exposed to income instability in European OECD countries and examines the effects it has on their lives, social mobility, and inequality. Income instability can be difficult to manage for individuals who lack the financial resources to smooth their incomes. In this report, people facing the twin problems of exposure and vulnerability to income instability are considered to be economically insecure. Economic insecurity falls predominantly on people with weak attachments to the labour force and on those who are not well-placed to leverage the benefits of digitalisation. People at risk of economic insecurity are more likely to worry about losing their jobs in the future than economically secure individuals and, as shown in other research, experience poor health, food insecurity, and poor childhood development outcomes, which can impede social mobility. Finally, the report reviews a range of policies to improve the timeliness of social protection to better support people with highly unstable incomes and explores options to help those most at risk of economic insecurity build financial buffers.
The OECD’s Development Assistance Committee (DAC) conducts peer reviews of individual members once every five to six years. Reviews seek to improve the quality and effectiveness of members’ development co-operation, highlighting good practices and recommending improvements. A DAC member since 2013, Poland has aligned its 2021-2030 Multiannual Programme with the 2030 Agenda, under the leadership of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA). Building on recommendations made in Poland’s first peer review in 2017, this review identifies opportunities for the Polish development co-operation system to work better together, programme bilateral official development assistance (ODA) more efficiently, and enhance multilateral and civil society partnerships. Recommendations include moving from annual calls for proposals to a more sustainable partnerships model, strengthening the MFA’s capabilities to co-ordinate with other actors in partner countries and better aligning Poland’s international engagement with its commitments to sustainable development.
Thailand has achieved remarkable economic progress over the past decades. A strong and timely policy response helped to cushion the economic and social impact of the pandemic, and of high energy and food prices. While bold fiscal support prevented the economy from falling into a recession, public debt has risen and fiscal consolidation should now continue at a gradual pace. Rising social demands, population ageing and the green transition will likely add to public spending pressures and call for raising additional tax revenues. Boosting productivity and mastering the transition towards more sustainable and inclusive growth will require stepping up delayed structural reforms. Competition remains limited across several sectors, likely related to market entry barriers and high regulatory burdens. More than half of workers lack formal employment and social security does not cover most of them. Social pensions provide a minimum income floor for elderly people, and raising them could allow significant inroads in the fight against poverty and inequality. Meeting climate pledges will require bold and well-organised reforms. Renewable power generation has advanced, but the overall share of renewable energy sources remains lower than in peer countries.
SPECIAL FEATURES: BOOSTING PRODUCTIVITY; INCLUSIVE RECOVERY; GREEN GROWTH
Despite commitments to scale up and speed up climate action, the fiscal cost of government support for fossil fuels almost doubled in 2022 to reach more than USD 1.4 trillion as governments across the OECD and partner countries introduced substantial initiatives to mitigate high energy costs on households and firms, caused in part by Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine. This rising trend is a real threat to our collective net zero goals and highlights the challenges of staying on track with net zero commitments in the face of geopolitical and economic disruption. Going forward, it will be critical that support measures are reformed to better target those most in need. Support for fossil fuels should also be phased out as soon as possible. This will help free up much needed resources for the transition towards net zero emissions and accelerate innovation to improve energy efficiency.
The global economy continues to confront the challenges of persistent inflation and subdued growth prospects. GDP growth has been stronger than expected so far in 2023, but is now moderating as the impact of tighter financial conditions, weak trade growth and lower business and consumer confidence is increasingly felt. The slowdown is projected to be mild, with continued disinflation, but a growing divergence across economies is expected to persist in the near term. The Outlook underlines a range of risks, including the potential for disruptions to commodity markets and trade from heightened geopolitical tensions, uncertainty about the persistence of inflation, and the extent to which excess household savings will be run down. Key policy priorities are to ensure that inflation returns durably to target, address mounting fiscal pressures, revive global trade and improve the prospects for sustainable and inclusive growth in the medium term.
This issue includes an assessment of the global economic situation, and a chapter summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country. Coverage is provided for all OECD members as well as for selected partner economies.
Open government is a powerful catalyst for driving democracy, public trust, and inclusive growth. In recognition of this, the OECD Council adopted the Recommendation on Open Government in 2017. To date, it remains the first - and only - internationally recognised legal instrument on open government and has guided many countries in designing and implementing their open government agendas. This report takes stock of countries' implementation of the Recommendation, its dissemination, and its ongoing significance. It is based on an OECD survey carried out in 2020/2021 among all countries that adhered to the Recommendation and other partner countries, as well as on further data collected through a perception survey with delegates to the OECD Working Party on Open Government.