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2023 OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2023 Issue 1

image of OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2023 Issue 1

Global economic developments have begun to improve, helped by lower energy prices, improving business and consumer sentiment, and the reopening of China. However, the OECD Economic Outlook highlights that the upturn is fragile and the recovery is set to remain weak by past standards, with the effects of tighter monetary policy increasingly being felt. The Outlook underlines a range of risks, including the possibility that inflation could prove more persistent than projected and that the impact of higher interest rates on financial markets and economic activity could be stronger than expected. Well-calibrated policy measures are required to unwind the impact of the recent sequence of negative shocks to the global economy, restore economic stability, and strengthen prospects for strong, inclusive and sustainable improvements in living standards.

This issue includes an assessment of the global economic situation, a chapter on promoting gender equality to strengthen economic growth and resilience and a chapter summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country. Coverage is provided for all OECD members as well as for selected partner economies.

Anglais Egalement disponible en : Français

Euro area

GDP growth is projected to slow to 0.9% in 2023 and then gradually strengthen to 1.5% in 2024. Private consumption will be supported by strong labour markets, but higher costs of financing and uncertainty will weigh on private investment. The tight labour market will continue to fuel wage growth in 2023, before wages start gradually easing in 2024. Lower energy and food prices will help reduce headline inflation in 2023, but core inflation will remain elevated. Risks remain tilted to the downside as another spike in energy prices could reignite the energy crisis, and restrictive monetary policy could expose existing financial sector vulnerabilities.

Anglais Egalement disponible en : Italien, Français

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