After the global crisis: An uneven and fragile recovery

The world economy appears to be recovering from its worst crisis since the Second World War. After a marked slowdown in 2008 and a real contraction of almost 2 per cent in 2009, global GDP is expected to expand by about 3.5 per cent in 2010 (table 1.1). This would mean a return to pre-crisis growth rates in most regions, with the exception of the European Union (EU) and some transition economies where a resurgence of growth is proving to be much slower. However, these prospects are no reason for complacency: the exit from recession may seem to have been rapid but it is unlikely to be either strong or durable if it continues to be based on temporary factors, such as inventory cycles and exceptional fiscal stimulus programmes, and if the underlying causes of the crisis are still in place, such as unregulated financial systems, income inequality and global imbalances.

Related Subject(s): International Trade and Finance