The increasing interconnectedness of global economies has created new opportunities for trade and innovation, yet it has also become more challenging to protect intellectual property and enforce trade regulations. Expanding supply chains and the rise of e-commerce have facilitated illicit trade, particularly in the trade of counterfeit goods; these pose risks to public safety, disrupt legitimate businesses, and impact economic stability. This report provides an analysis of global trade in counterfeit and pirated goods, using the latest (2021) customs seizure data. It offers an overview of the scope, scale, and key characteristics of such illicit trade, with a focus on the European Union. The findings are concerning: in 2021, counterfeit and pirated goods accounted for up to 2.3% of global trade and up to 4.7% of EU imports. This report also examines emerging trends and highlights the need for co-ordinated international efforts to secure supply chains.
Mapping Global Trade in Fakes 2025
Abstract
Executive Summary
Globalisation, trade facilitation, and industrial specialisation have significantly reshaped supply chains, extending them across multiple countries and continents. While this evolution has enhanced efficiency, economic growth, and consumer choice, it has also increased the complexity of managing and securing supply chains. In addition, the rising importance of intellectual property (IP) embedded in global production underscores the need for international collaboration and enforcement to safeguard innovation and brands across jurisdictions.
The intricate nature of global supply chains, however, creates vulnerabilities that contribute to intellectual property infringement. Counterfeit goods that infiltrate supply chain networks undermine legitimate businesses, deprive governments of revenue, and pose public health and safety risks. Illicit trade in counterfeit goods is also linked to organised crime and corruption, exploiting gaps in regulations and enforcement. These challenges are amplified by the increasing complexity and global nature of supply chains.
The COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on global trade. Although trade volumes decreased in 2020, they have since strongly rebounded. This growth, however, was largely driven by raw materials rather than manufactured goods. As such, since trade in counterfeits was, and continues to be, almost exclusively limited to manufactured products, this surge in global trade did not translate into a comparable increase in counterfeit trade. This study finds that counterfeiting continued to focus on specific product categories, such as clothing, footwear, and electronics, and did not mirror the broader post-2020 trade growth trend.
The People’s Republic of China (hereafter “China”) continues to be the primary source of counterfeit goods, although other regions contribute significantly. Indeed, the General Trade-Related Index of Counterfeiting (GTRIC) index, which estimates the likelihood of specific countries being major sources of counterfeit exports, indicates that during 2020-21 the sources of counterfeit clothing products were numerous and spread across the world; Bangladesh, Lebanon, Syrian Arab Republic, and Türkiye were considered to be key sources of such illicit goods.
Counterfeiting affects nearly 50 of the 96 product categories, with high-value goods such as clothing, footwear, leather goods, and electronics the top targets. Trade routes continue to evolve as counterfeiters use international waterways such as the Danube River to move goods and adopt “localisation” strategies to produce fakes closer to end markets. Free trade zones, which benefit from reduced oversight, play a pivotal role in this trend. Localisation tactics, such as importing unassembled components or separate packaging with a view to producing or assembling counterfeit goods close to or within the destination market, complicate enforcement efforts and require new strategies for detection.
Counterfeiters also exploit online platforms and modern logistics to infiltrate legitimate trade, with postal services emerging as the primary channel for distribution. Small parcels, often classified as de minimis trade, evade scrutiny and create challenges for enforcement agencies. Indeed, the size of seized shipments has generally decreased; in 2020-21, shipments containing fewer than ten items accounted for 79% of all seizures, up from 61% in 2017-19.
In 2021, global trade in counterfeit goods was valued at approximately USD 467 billion, or 2.3% of total global imports. This absolute value represents an increase from 2019, when counterfeit trade was estimated at USD 464 billion, although its relative share decreased compared to 2019 when it accounted for 2.5% of world trade. For imports into the European Union, the value of counterfeit goods was estimated at USD 117 billion, or 4.7% of total EU imports.
The European Union is a key target for counterfeit imports, with China and Hong Kong (China) accounting for the highest value of seized counterfeit goods. Counterfeit goods range from everyday consumer items to luxury products, with a worrying increase in the trade of dangerous goods such as counterfeit automotive parts and pharmaceuticals. Despite a decrease in counterfeit trade values post-COVID-19, EU exposure remains significant as counterfeiters have adapted by relocating production closer to destination markets.
Data analysis reflects evolving counterfeiting trends and enforcement challenges. Counterfeiters exploit gaps in enforcement, including limited resources and shifting priorities, with “localisation” and small parcel shipments further complicating detection. Strengthening enforcement requires better co-ordination, information sharing, and collaboration with rights holders and trade intermediaries. Enhanced engagement with trade intermediaries, including postal and shipping services, is critical to curbing illicit trade and safeguarding global supply chains.
