The Survey was prepared by Margit Molnar, Ben Westmore and Thomas Chalaux, with contributions from Jiangyuan Lu, Wenhao Chen, Baolin Wang and Hyunjeong Hwang, under the supervision of Vincent Koen. Secretarial assistance was provided by Mercedes Burgos and Sisse Nielsen.The Survey was discussed at a meeting of the Economic and Development Review Committee on 23 January 2017, with participation of representatives of the Chinese government. The cut-off date for data and information used in the Survey is 12 March 2017.Empirical analysis in the Survey benefitted from a voluntary contribution from the Government of the Republic of Korea.The Survey is published on the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD.

OECD Economic Projections 100 Database.

As it enters the 13th Five-Year Plan period (2016-20), the Chinese economy continues to grow fast by international standards. While growth is slowing gradually, GDP per capita remains on course to almost double between 2010 and 2020 (). As a result, the Chinese economy will remain the major driver of global growth for the foreseeable future. Notwithstanding the economy’s impressive performance and unprecedented poverty reduction (Panel C), imbalances have built up. China’s growth has long been driven by capital accumulation, supported by high savings. However, the growth model has led to misallocation of capital and falling investment efficiency, and to excess capacity in some manufacturing industries and in the real estate sector, which needs to be worked off. High enterprise investment was financed by debt, fuelled by interest subsidies and implicit guarantees for SOEs and other public entities. Effectively addressing sources of risk, such as excessive corporate leverage, real estate bubbles and leveraged investment in asset markets will help keep growth on a sustainable path. The authorities may need to forgo some growth in the short run to ensure greater stability over the longer run, with a wider spread of the benefits of growth across society and less stress on a highly polluted environment.