1887

Shrinking Smartly in Estonia

Preparing Regions for Demographic Change

image of Shrinking Smartly in Estonia

Many lower density regions in the OECD face shrinkage, with projections suggesting that half of Europe will need to manage decline in remote regions by 2050. Half of Estonia’s counties experienced population decline greater than 25% since 1991. Shrinkage leads to problems including lower municipal revenues, ageing, and greater per capita costs of service and infrastructure provision. Estonia is also the most carbon-intensive economy in the OECD, and heavily utilises its forests and land. To tackle these challenges, the report provides analyses in a number of policy areas to respond to demographic change in a smart and sustainable manner. A policy framework that emphasises a spatially oriented, coordinated approach for responding to shrinkage is developed. The report provides policy recommendations to make land use more efficient and spatial planning more coherent. It suggests ways to improve the transfer system and strengthen the municipal revenue base while encouraging inter-municipal cooperation. It also discusses education, the municipalities’ largest spending responsibility, providing recommendations that adapt the school network to shrinkage while ensuring access to high-quality education for all students.

English

Executive summary

Estonia's population – 1.33 million inhabitants in 2020 – has shrunk by 15% since 1991 and all available projections indicate that this trend will continue. But shrinkage has been uneven. While larger urban areas have grown, more than half of Estonia’s counties experienced population decline greater than 25%. Rural and remote areas have been hardest hit. Shrinkage results in lower density, which increases per head service and infrastructure provision costs. It also results in housing vacancies and deteriorating built environments, problems that require additional municipal resources to maintain suitable living conditions in the face of declining tax revenues. Another effect is a higher share of the elderly population in all regions of Estonia. These older residents require additional services and care, compared to the average citizen.

English

This is a required field
Please enter a valid email address
Approval was a Success
Invalid data
An Error Occurred
Approval was partially successful, following selected items could not be processed due to error