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ITF Transport Outlook 2017

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The ITF Transport Outlook provides an overview of recent trends and near-term prospects for the transport sector at a global level, as well as long-term prospects for transport demand to 2050, for freight (maritime, air and surface), passenger transport (car, rail and air) and CO2 emissions. This edition looks at how the main policy, economic and technological changes since 2015, along with other international developments (such as the Sustainable Development Goals), are shaping the future of mobility, and presents alternative policy scenarios for long-term trends in transport demand and CO2 emissions from all transport modes, freight and passenger. A special focus on accessibility in cities also highlights the role of policies in shaping sustainable transport systems that provide equal access to all.

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Transport demand and CO2 emissions to 2050

International Transport Forum

This chapter provides an overview of the long-term prospects for transport demand. Based on projections from the International Transport Forum’s (ITF) suite of models, it presents the baseline trajectory for transport demand to 2050 and outlines its projections for CO2 emissions from the sector. The chapter starts with the baseline scenario projections for passenger transport demand, broken down by mode, for both urban and non-urban areas, between 2015 and 2050. It then focuses on the outlook for freight for the same period, looking at surface freight (rail and road), maritime and air. The chapter concludes with the projections for the CO2 emissions from transport to 2050, by sector, and a brief review of the ITF’s contribution to the Paris Agreement with its Decarbonising Transport project.

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