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ITF Transport Outlook 2017

image of ITF Transport Outlook 2017

The ITF Transport Outlook provides an overview of recent trends and near-term prospects for the transport sector at a global level, as well as long-term prospects for transport demand to 2050, for freight (maritime, air and surface), passenger transport (car, rail and air) and CO2 emissions. This edition looks at how the main policy, economic and technological changes since 2015, along with other international developments (such as the Sustainable Development Goals), are shaping the future of mobility, and presents alternative policy scenarios for long-term trends in transport demand and CO2 emissions from all transport modes, freight and passenger. A special focus on accessibility in cities also highlights the role of policies in shaping sustainable transport systems that provide equal access to all.

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Mobility in cities

International Transport Forum

This chapter presents long-term scenarios on the development of passenger mobility in cities and the related emissions up to 2050. The results, based on the new model for mobility in cities of the International Transport Forum (ITF), comprise modal shares, mobility levels and emissions of both CO2 and local pollutants. The first section looks at the development of the modelling framework and analyses the impacts of different transport, environment and technology substitution measures on mobility. The long-term implications of the three policy scenarios in terms of accessibility are then analysed, using a new methodology to compute accessibility in cities. The chapter concludes with a case study on certain cities in Asia, applying the same policy scenarios on a subset of cities from China, India and Southeast Asia.

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