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ITF Transport Outlook 2017

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The ITF Transport Outlook provides an overview of recent trends and near-term prospects for the transport sector at a global level, as well as long-term prospects for transport demand to 2050, for freight (maritime, air and surface), passenger transport (car, rail and air) and CO2 emissions. This edition looks at how the main policy, economic and technological changes since 2015, along with other international developments (such as the Sustainable Development Goals), are shaping the future of mobility, and presents alternative policy scenarios for long-term trends in transport demand and CO2 emissions from all transport modes, freight and passenger. A special focus on accessibility in cities also highlights the role of policies in shaping sustainable transport systems that provide equal access to all.

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International passenger aviation

International Transport Forum

International aviation continues to expand, contributing positively to the economy, but bringing with it challenges for the environment. This chapter starts by describing the process for modelling future global passenger demand and then presents three scenarios for the evolution of this demand and the related CO2 emissions. The three scenarios correspond to different mechanisms for the evolution of the air network and combine assumptions on the rules governing the geographical expansion of the network and on future competition levels. The chapter continues by considering projections for CO2 emissions from international passenger aviation up to 2030 as well as an overview of the longer-term prospects. The final section starts with an analysis of the current level of air accessibility, finishing with a global outlook for accessibility by air to 2030.

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