ITF Transport Outlook 2015

image of ITF Transport Outlook 2015

The ITF Transport Outlook examines the development of global transport volumes and related CO2 emissions and health impacts through to 2050. It examines factors that can affect supply and demand for transport services and focuses on scenarios illustrating potential upper and lower pathways, discussing their relevance to policy making.

This edition presents an overview of long-run scenarios for the development of global passenger and freight transport volumes, with emphasis on changes in global trade flows and the consequences of rapid urbanisation. It focuses on the characteristics of mobility development in developing countries, from Latin America to Chinese and Indian cities, highlighting the importance of urban mobility policies for the achievement of national and global sustainability goals.



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Surface transport demand in the long run

International Transport Forum

This chapter presents an overview of long-run scenarios to 2050 for the development of global surface (road and rail) passenger mobility and freight traffic. The transport scenarios are translated into CO2 emission scenarios by applying potential transport technology pathways. The chapter first introduces the general modelling framework developed by the International Transport Forum. It then summarises total CO2 emissions from surface transport globally. Finally, alternative development paths for both freight and passenger transport are discussed and regional implications of different scenarios for transport demand and CO2 emissions are shown up to 2050.

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