International Transport Forum Policy Papers

The ITF Transport Policy Papers provide evidence-based policy insights and recommendations. The series assembles reports from case-specific policy analyses carried out by the ITF on request of member countries, thematic reviews carried out in agreement with local institutions, studies completed in the context of the ITF Corporate Partnership Board, and other work focused on supporting policy decisions. The papers in this series will be of interest to policy makers, industry, researchers and transport experts.


Forecasting Airport Demand

Review of UK Airports Commission Forecasts and Scenarios

The Airports Commission requires an external view on whether its forecasts yield plausible results, taking into account the ways in which the future of the aviation market may develop, prompted by comments received during stakeholder consultations on the forecasts and scenarios developed. This report summarises a review of the forecasts prepared by the International Transport Forum together with independent experts. The report provide views on the appropriateness of the outputs produced, on the most robust central scenarios and on any scenario results that should be treated with particular caution. it also examines one aspect of the methodology used in developing the baseline forecast, the module allocating traffic between London’s airports.


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