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OECD Science, Technology and Industry Policy Papers

The OECD Directorate for Science, Technology and Innovation (STI) develops evidence-based policy advice on the contribution of science, technology and industry to well-being and economic growth. STI Policy Papers cover a broad range of topics, including industry and globalisation, innovation and entrepreneurship, scientific R&D and emerging technologies. These reports are officially declassified by an OECD Committee.

English

Policies to strengthen the resilience of global value chains

Empirical evidence from the COVID-19 shock

Widespread supply disruptions in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian Federation’s large-scale aggression against Ukraine have raised concerns among policy makers that globalised value chains expose domestic production to shocks from abroad. This paper uses new indicators of global value chain dependencies and exogenous pandemic shocks to econometrically estimate the effects of supply disruptions abroad on domestic output. The results suggest that the adverse effects of supply disruptions are particularly large when concentration of supplying countries and supplying firms is high. Counterfactual simulations of the econometric model suggest that diversification of suppliers would have sizeable benefits in terms of shielding domestic production against country-specific supply shocks, with partial onshoring of production having only small additional benefits. Technological innovation that reduces foreign dependencies, such as the substitution of renewable energies for fossil fuels, can have similar benefits as diversification.

English

Keywords: resiliance, global value chains, international trade
JEL: F68: International Economics / Economic Impacts of Globalization / Economic Impacts of Globalization: Policy; F14: International Economics / Trade / Empirical Studies of Trade; L52: Industrial Organization / Regulation and Industrial Policy / Industrial Policy; Sectoral Planning Methods
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