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The Future of International Migration to OECD Countries

image of The Future of International Migration to OECD Countries

This book explores the social, economic and environmental forces that may combine to attract migrants of various types and backgrounds to OECD countries, as well as those that may persuade migrants to leave their countries or to stay at home. By analysing different pull and push factors and constructing five different scenarios of migration in the future, this volume casts light on major determinants of global migration flows, which OECD countries will look particularly attractive for migrants, where the pressures to migrate be especially strong and what kind of migration-related issues will policy makers likely be facing as 2030 approaches.

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Scenarios for the Global Economy and Implications for Migration

The objective of this chapter is to use scenario planning techniques to:

• Explore how the global economic, political, technological, environmental and social outlook might develop out to 2030

• Assess the implications for migration from poorer to richer nations, and

• Examine the particular policy challenges raised for OECD countries.

Five scenarios are presented. These were created for and then elaborated at a focus group discussion with migration experts organised by the OECD/ IFP secretariat in July 2008. The scenarios were subsequently developed further based on the focus group input. They were then reviewed and discussed at an OECD/IFP expert workshop in December 2008 and refined as a result of those discussions. A fuller description of the scenario development process is set out in Annex 4.A1.

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