Executive summary

Slovenia’s recovery is strengthening

Income convergence has restarted
Income gap to the upper half of OECD countries1
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1. See footnote 1 in Figure 9.

Source: OECD Analytical Database.

 https://doi.org/10.1787/888933555437

Growth has picked up to a pace exceeding the EU15 average, thanks to recent structural reforms, business restructuring, supportive monetary conditions and improved export markets. Lower unemployment and higher real incomes are underpinning consumption. Business investment is rising, although it remains low relative to GDP. Public debt and non-performing loans are being reduced from high levels. However, Slovenia faces several socioeconomic challenges, particularly rapid population ageing. The government’s National Development Strategy 2030 aims to improve the well-being of its people through strong, inclusive and sustainable growth in the context of the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals.

Investing in skills would raise incomes and make growth more inclusive

Employment rate for older workers (55-64 year-olds), 2016
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Source: OECD, Labour Force Survey – Sex and Age composition database.

 https://doi.org/10.1787/888933555456

Investment in human capital is important to raise productivity and to ensure that the benefits of the recovery reach everyone in society. Persistent long-term unemployment and low employment of older workers, combined with an ageing population, magnify the importance of achieving a more inclusive labour market. Workers need to maintain their skills to find and retain well paid jobs, and many of the unemployed have to be reskilled to gain a foothold on the labour market. A number of policies are required to meet the challenge of preparing people for successful careers in competitive and innovative firms that are globally integrated, including training of the jobless and strengthening vocational and university education.

Attracting investment and fostering competitive firms

Businesses face a relatively heavy regulatory burden
Overall PMR indicator, 2013
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Source: OECD PMR indicators database.

 https://doi.org/10.1787/888933555475

More capital would raise productivity and living standards. Reducing high regulatory barriers would make Slovenia more attractive to domestic and foreign investors. This could be achieved by strengthening inter-agency co-ordination, regulatory impact assessments and the competition authority. Reducing the wide scope of the numerous state-owned enterprises would foster competition, particularly in network sectors. More competitive markets would lower prices, expand consumer choice and stimulate innovation with benefits for well-being and economic growth.

MAIN FINDINGS

KEY RECOMMENDATIONS

Securing long-term fiscal sustainability

The fiscal deficit has fallen sharply to near balance. Public debt is declining but is still high, which, combined with large contingent liabilities such as state guarantees, make public finances vulnerable.

The government should pursue its 2020 fiscal balance objective with consolidation totalling ¾ per cent of GDP in 2018-20; frontloading of planned consolidation efforts could help to avoid overheating.

Maintain spending ceilings, pursue efficiency improvements, and adjust the structure of public spending to avoid a renewed increase in public debt.

Pursue faster, well thought-out privatisation so as to further reduce public debt and the high level of contingent liabilities.

Ageing will put upward pressure on spending in the years ahead.

Raise the statutory retirement age to 67, and ensure a continuing increase in the effective retirement age. Cover eventual pension shortfalls by a combination of additional contributions, lower pension indexation and increased incentives to work longer.

Allow hospitals to adjust their health services to changing demand, including by closing under-performing departments.

Give hospitals greater scope to engage in multi-year investments and to keep their realised cost savings.

Raising wages and living standards by investing in skills

Vocational education graduates have poor literacy skills. Technical programme graduates often do not pursue the occupation for which they have trained.

Improve general skills of vocational students through use of problem-based learning, combined with retraining of teachers.

Raise the work-experience content of technical programmes.

Time spent in training by adults is low.

Distribute adult training vouchers, or provide tax credits to increase workers’ training opportunities.

Long-term unemployment is high.

Increase training to help long-term unemployed to re-enter the labour market, including through a change in career.

The low employment rate for older workers undermines inclusiveness. Age-related unemployment and disability benefits encourage premature retirement.

Eliminate the legal requirement that wages increase automatically with age.

Harmonise the maximum duration of unemployment benefit across age groups.

Full-time tertiary enrolment is high, while the high tuition fees for part-time students keep enrolment among older cohorts low. In addition, outcomes are mediocre and completion rates low. Career guidance is limited.

Equalise tuition fees for full- and part-time students on a per course basis, coupled with grants and loans for those from poor families.

Link university funding to students’ labour market outcomes.

Fostering productivity by improving regulation and enhancing competition

Poor co-ordination between regulatory bodies creates cumbersome procedures, uncertainty and higher costs.

Ensure that the regulatory impact authority’s common RIA framework is applied consistently with effective quality control including through methodology guidance and training.

The competition authority has had few successful cases, and court procedures are long.

Simplify judicial proceedings.

Increase resources and staff expertise at the authority.

The large number of regulated professions has curbed productivity.

Shrink the list of regulated professions, and, where regulation is retained, move to less restrictive forms.

Infrastructure development has focused on large projects.

Develop a common approach to cost-benefit analysis for project selection.

There are over 650 public enterprises (SOEs – owned by various levels of government), many with subsidiaries in unrelated sectors.

Strengthen SOE governance by directing them to focus on core activities, allowing more management pay flexibility and strengthening supervisory boards.

Follow through with privatisation, and narrow the group of SOEs that are considered strategic.

Vertically and horizontally integrated state-owned enterprises in network sectors hamper market entry.

Implement effective separation of activities and non-discriminatory third-party access to networks. Privatise competitive activities, except in sensitive sectors.

Policies to reach the renewable-energy target are costly.

Avoid technology biases in renewable-energy subsidies.