OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016-2025 - © OECD 2016
A.3.1 | World trade projections, imports | ||||||||||||
A.3.1 | World trade projections, imports | ||||||||||||
| | | Average 2013-15est | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
| Wheat | ||||||||||||
| World Trade | kt | 155 598 | 152 453 | 154 989 | 158 345 | 161 194 | 163 337 | 165 633 | 167 818 | 169 995 | 172 381 | 174 482 |
| OECD 1 | kt | 31 782 | 29 905 | 30 346 | 30 700 | 31 054 | 31 207 | 31 391 | 31 383 | 31 463 | 31 546 | 31 676 |
| Developing countries | kt | 125 352 | 123 948 | 126 162 | 129 051 | 131 531 | 133 447 | 135 429 | 137 486 | 139 414 | 141 548 | 143 394 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 17 321 | 18 583 | 18 959 | 19 709 | 20 454 | 20 976 | 21 401 | 21 929 | 22 428 | 22 965 | 23 481 |
| Maize | ||||||||||||
| World Trade | kt | 123 050 | 128 622 | 127 910 | 129 082 | 130 204 | 131 030 | 133 060 | 134 660 | 137 400 | 139 776 | 141 538 |
| OECD 1 | kt | 53 679 | 56 599 | 57 978 | 57 850 | 57 799 | 57 389 | 57 620 | 57 330 | 57 554 | 57 700 | 57 551 |
| Developing countries | kt | 91 516 | 91 104 | 93 183 | 95 132 | 96 236 | 97 455 | 99 518 | 101 559 | 104 292 | 106 703 | 108 690 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 1 870 | 2 906 | 2 532 | 2 648 | 2 669 | 2 711 | 2 817 | 2 880 | 3 033 | 3 132 | 3 226 |
| Other coarse grains | ||||||||||||
| World Trade | kt | 40 917 | 38 390 | 38 505 | 38 893 | 39 594 | 40 749 | 41 780 | 43 266 | 44 718 | 46 217 | 47 903 |
| OECD 1 | kt | 8 991 | 9 231 | 9 202 | 9 149 | 8 814 | 8 744 | 8 842 | 9 078 | 9 244 | 9 489 | 9 689 |
| Developing countries | kt | 33 322 | 30 340 | 30 608 | 31 045 | 32 096 | 33 280 | 34 177 | 35 381 | 36 591 | 37 774 | 39 199 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 791 | 702 | 700 | 771 | 764 | 748 | 732 | 718 | 702 | 705 | 696 |
| Rice | ||||||||||||
| World Trade | kt | 43 455 | 42 658 | 43 702 | 44 784 | 46 157 | 47 081 | 47 974 | 48 715 | 49 619 | 50 593 | 51 433 |
| OECD 1 | kt | 5 219 | 5 340 | 5 403 | 5 448 | 5 507 | 5 562 | 5 634 | 5 702 | 5 771 | 5 843 | 5 907 |
| Developing countries | kt | 38 205 | 37 338 | 38 330 | 39 359 | 40 664 | 41 523 | 42 331 | 42 994 | 43 817 | 44 706 | 45 468 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 9 720 | 9 200 | 9 374 | 9 850 | 10 277 | 10 483 | 10 622 | 10 770 | 10 977 | 11 217 | 11 412 |
| Soybean | ||||||||||||
| World Trade | kt | 123 483 | 134 661 | 137 055 | 141 170 | 143 712 | 146 382 | 148 641 | 151 900 | 155 555 | 158 429 | 161 105 |
| OECD 1 | kt | 26 020 | 26 500 | 26 429 | 26 920 | 26 995 | 27 035 | 27 118 | 27 255 | 27 660 | 27 628 | 28 050 |
| Developing countries | kt | 102 231 | 113 252 | 116 101 | 119 979 | 122 696 | 125 557 | 127 906 | 131 229 | 134 752 | 137 783 | 140 320 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 515 | 612 | 616 | 623 | 634 | 645 | 653 | 659 | 674 | 683 | 698 |
| Other oilseeds | ||||||||||||
| World Trade | kt | 18 469 | 17 449 | 17 468 | 17 654 | 17 831 | 17 935 | 18 200 | 18 583 | 18 685 | 18 821 | 18 761 |
| OECD 1 | kt | 10 277 | 10 428 | 10 370 | 10 263 | 10 327 | 10 289 | 10 339 | 10 430 | 10 359 | 10 322 | 10 193 |
| Developing countries | kt | 10 293 | 9 159 | 9 221 | 9 465 | 9 602 | 9 766 | 10 009 | 10 314 | 10 521 | 10 724 | 10 803 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 312 | 310 | 319 | 336 | 354 | 360 | 367 | 380 | 390 | 393 | 393 |
| Protein Meals | ||||||||||||
| World Trade | kt | 80 424 | 83 772 | 85 668 | 87 192 | 88 827 | 90 443 | 91 870 | 93 619 | 95 581 | 97 307 | 99 497 |
| OECD 1 | kt | 43 153 | 43 373 | 44 679 | 45 227 | 45 608 | 45 984 | 46 244 | 46 675 | 47 121 | 47 563 | 48 317 |
| Developing countries | kt | 43 015 | 46 401 | 47 311 | 48 539 | 49 863 | 51 322 | 52 720 | 54 280 | 55 988 | 57 531 | 59 181 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 827 | 956 | 1 042 | 1 078 | 1 217 | 1 246 | 1 427 | 1 372 | 1 520 | 1 588 | 1 772 |
| Vegetable Oils | ||||||||||||
| World Trade | kt | 73 336 | 76 661 | 78 018 | 79 516 | 81 296 | 83 024 | 84 577 | 86 409 | 88 326 | 90 263 | 92 133 |
| OECD 1 | kt | 19 057 | 18 899 | 19 177 | 19 143 | 19 350 | 19 678 | 19 687 | 19 694 | 19 641 | 19 727 | 19 527 |
| Developing countries | kt | 55 465 | 59 274 | 60 436 | 61 993 | 63 619 | 65 117 | 66 689 | 68 569 | 70 566 | 72 498 | 74 579 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 6 542 | 7 329 | 7 609 | 7 963 | 8 293 | 8 602 | 8 946 | 9 343 | 9 758 | 10 137 | 10 543 |
| Sugar | ||||||||||||
| World Trade | kt | 53 607 | 54 093 | 54 432 | 55 561 | 57 336 | 59 024 | 60 358 | 62 201 | 63 834 | 65 350 | 66 848 |
| OECD 1 | kt | 12 584 | 13 218 | 11 908 | 11 410 | 11 459 | 11 615 | 11 765 | 11 914 | 12 064 | 12 158 | 12 317 |
| Developing countries | kt | 39 176 | 39 499 | 41 110 | 42 731 | 44 565 | 46 123 | 47 276 | 48 890 | 50 381 | 51 796 | 53 149 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 7 322 | 7 077 | 7 601 | 7 903 | 8 543 | 9 055 | 9 359 | 9 816 | 10 304 | 10 758 | 11 193 |
| Beef 2 | ||||||||||||
| World Trade | kt | 8 841 | 9 117 | 9 317 | 9 669 | 9 938 | 10 202 | 10 452 | 10 698 | 10 941 | 11 144 | 11 382 |
| OECD 1 | kt | 3 518 | 3 527 | 3 465 | 3 485 | 3 536 | 3 604 | 3 669 | 3 734 | 3 788 | 3 840 | 3 888 |
| Developing countries | kt | 5 169 | 5 581 | 5 788 | 6 071 | 6 292 | 6 496 | 6 694 | 6 887 | 7 077 | 7 242 | 7 439 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 204 | 191 | 218 | 264 | 306 | 341 | 374 | 404 | 434 | 462 | 492 |
| Pigmeat 2 | ||||||||||||
| World Trade | kt | 6 636 | 6 888 | 7 069 | 7 192 | 7 322 | 7 403 | 7 480 | 7 588 | 7 691 | 7 806 | 7 917 |
| OECD 1 | kt | 3 335 | 3 561 | 3 581 | 3 628 | 3 682 | 3 730 | 3 781 | 3 840 | 3 879 | 3 916 | 3 940 |
| Developing countries | kt | 3 727 | 4 243 | 4 264 | 4 359 | 4 440 | 4 486 | 4 540 | 4 620 | 4 722 | 4 843 | 4 966 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 211 | 213 | 220 | 244 | 256 | 269 | 288 | 315 | 355 | 406 | 464 |
| Poultry | ||||||||||||
| World Trade | kt | 11 571 | 11 943 | 12 552 | 12 969 | 13 313 | 13 665 | 13 941 | 14 247 | 14 603 | 14 969 | 15 345 |
| OECD 1 | kt | 2 688 | 2 846 | 2 899 | 2 914 | 2 914 | 2 927 | 2 944 | 2 954 | 2 957 | 2 966 | 2 964 |
| Developing countries | kt | 8 518 | 8 985 | 9 480 | 9 839 | 10 146 | 10 435 | 10 660 | 10 907 | 11 205 | 11 514 | 11 850 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 1 061 | 1 075 | 1 208 | 1 285 | 1 341 | 1 397 | 1 443 | 1 498 | 1 562 | 1 629 | 1 699 |
| Butter | ||||||||||||
| World Trade | kt | 856 | 867 | 905 | 936 | 963 | 986 | 999 | 1 019 | 1 042 | 1 070 | 1 101 |
| OECD 1 | kt | 140 | 152 | 156 | 162 | 168 | 168 | 162 | 158 | 158 | 161 | 165 |
| Developing countries | kt | 581 | 622 | 632 | 661 | 685 | 703 | 713 | 730 | 752 | 776 | 803 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 12 | 13 | 14 | 16 | 17 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
| Cheese | ||||||||||||
| World Trade | kt | 2 173 | 2 179 | 2 267 | 2 315 | 2 364 | 2 413 | 2 476 | 2 538 | 2 596 | 2 648 | 2 718 |
| OECD 1 | kt | 886 | 976 | 969 | 972 | 981 | 996 | 997 | 1 011 | 1 027 | 1 042 | 1 065 |
| Developing countries | kt | 1 135 | 1 231 | 1 233 | 1 270 | 1 308 | 1 343 | 1 394 | 1 431 | 1 466 | 1 504 | 1 554 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 46 | 40 | 43 | 46 | 48 | 50 | 52 | 54 | 57 | 59 | 61 |
| Whole milk powder | ||||||||||||
| World Trade | kt | 2 353 | 2 417 | 2 536 | 2 590 | 2 643 | 2 681 | 2 730 | 2 778 | 2 823 | 2 871 | 2 914 |
| OECD 1 | kt | 71 | 61 | 75 | 79 | 82 | 84 | 87 | 90 | 92 | 96 | 97 |
| Developing countries | kt | 2 308 | 2 374 | 2 490 | 2 544 | 2 597 | 2 636 | 2 684 | 2 731 | 2 777 | 2 824 | 2 868 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 202 | 217 | 225 | 232 | 240 | 247 | 256 | 264 | 273 | 282 | 292 |
| Skim milk powder | ||||||||||||
| World Trade | kt | 1 975 | 2 090 | 2 171 | 2 217 | 2 264 | 2 302 | 2 357 | 2 404 | 2 451 | 2 503 | 2 555 |
| OECD 1 | kt | 307 | 333 | 344 | 347 | 348 | 344 | 346 | 346 | 345 | 345 | 345 |
| Developing countries | kt | 1 822 | 1 934 | 2 010 | 2 059 | 2 108 | 2 152 | 2 208 | 2 258 | 2 308 | 2 363 | 2 418 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 122 | 131 | 136 | 140 | 145 | 149 | 154 | 158 | 163 | 168 | 173 |
| Fish 3 | ||||||||||||
| World Trade | kt | 38 340 | 39 058 | 39 571 | 40 070 | 40 838 | 41 683 | 42 491 | 43 240 | 44 208 | 45 213 | 46 359 |
| OECD | kt | 20 760 | 21 480 | 21 679 | 21 837 | 22 216 | 22 571 | 23 000 | 23 261 | 23 708 | 24 214 | 24 800 |
| Developing countries | kt | 17 547 | 17 952 | 18 280 | 18 542 | 18 938 | 19 432 | 19 895 | 20 381 | 20 832 | 21 339 | 21 912 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 1 018 | 943 | 955 | 974 | 996 | 1 019 | 1 034 | 1 042 | 1 058 | 1 073 | 1 089 |
| Fishmeal 4 | ||||||||||||
| World Trade | kt | 2 811 | 2 793 | 2 734 | 2 817 | 2 883 | 2 956 | 2 826 | 2 786 | 2 886 | 2 917 | 2 963 |
| OECD | kt | 1 346 | 1 184 | 1 149 | 1 167 | 1 173 | 1 188 | 1 098 | 1 113 | 1 142 | 1 135 | 1 136 |
| Developing countries | kt | 1 607 | 1 763 | 1 739 | 1 808 | 1 868 | 1 926 | 1 884 | 1 828 | 1 904 | 1 946 | 1 994 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 28 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 37 | 36 | 35 | 36 | 36 | 37 |
| Fish oil 4 | ||||||||||||
| World Trade | kt | 730 | 722 | 713 | 729 | 741 | 761 | 750 | 744 | 761 | 761 | 776 |
| OECD | kt | 576 | 600 | 575 | 585 | 595 | 613 | 612 | 597 | 606 | 608 | 619 |
| Developing countries | kt | 260 | 196 | 221 | 234 | 238 | 241 | 228 | 242 | 252 | 251 | 255 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Ethanol | ||||||||||||
| World Trade | kt | 7 761 | 8 247 | 8 379 | 8 559 | 8 388 | 8 740 | 8 531 | 8 365 | 8 244 | 7 929 | 7 483 |
| OECD 1 | kt | 5 158 | 5 588 | 5 733 | 5 866 | 5 730 | 6 022 | 5 619 | 5 398 | 5 230 | 5 008 | 4 637 |
| Developing countries | kt | 2 800 | 2 958 | 2 948 | 2 991 | 2 952 | 3 009 | 3 197 | 3 250 | 3 294 | 3 200 | 3 118 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 334 | 304 | 308 | 316 | 325 | 333 | 342 | 351 | 360 | 368 | 381 |
| Biodiesel | ||||||||||||
| World Trade | kt | 3 194 | 2 442 | 2 806 | 2 867 | 2 880 | 2 909 | 2 908 | 2 890 | 2 873 | 2 867 | 2 811 |
| OECD 1 | kt | 2 812 | 1 980 | 2 334 | 2 389 | 2 396 | 2 420 | 2 414 | 2 390 | 2 366 | 2 353 | 2 290 |
| Developing countries | kt | 381 | 462 | 472 | 478 | 484 | 489 | 494 | 501 | 508 | 514 | 521 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cotton | ||||||||||||
| World Trade | kt | 8 024 | 7 340 | 7 479 | 7 583 | 7 677 | 7 789 | 7 927 | 8 136 | 8 320 | 8 504 | 8 678 |
| OECD 1 | kt | 1 636 | 1 657 | 1 660 | 1 672 | 1 653 | 1 666 | 1 661 | 1 656 | 1 658 | 1 661 | 1 667 |
| Developing countries | kt | 7 646 | 6 971 | 7 113 | 7 221 | 7 315 | 7 429 | 7 569 | 7 779 | 7 961 | 8 143 | 8 314 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 1 013 | 1 113 | 1 174 | 1 216 | 1 262 | 1 302 | 1 353 | 1 407 | 1 473 | 1 542 | 1 613 |
| Roots and tubers | ||||||||||||
| World Trade | kt | 12 318 | 11 361 | 11 582 | 11 706 | 11 884 | 12 036 | 12 265 | 12 458 | 12 662 | 12 840 | 13 046 |
| OECD | kt | 2 267 | 2 306 | 2 319 | 2 406 | 2 433 | 2 509 | 2 526 | 2 595 | 2 596 | 2 627 | 2 646 |
| Developing countries | kt | 10 345 | 9 259 | 9 505 | 9 561 | 9 739 | 9 844 | 10 087 | 10 244 | 10 472 | 10 641 | 10 847 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 179 | 184 | 177 | 171 | 174 | 173 | 174 | 173 | 172 | 170 | 173 |
Note: The values do not add up to world trade due to double counting of certains countries and statistical differences (i.e. LDC are already included in the Developing countries aggregate). Average 2013-15est: Data for 2015 are estimated. | |||||||||||||
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer | |||||||||||||
Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries. | |||||||||||||
Excludes trade of live animals. | |||||||||||||
Data are in live weight equivalent and refer to trade of food fish i.e. for human consumption. | |||||||||||||
Data are in product weight. | |||||||||||||
Source: OECD/FAO (2016), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en |