Main policy assumptions for biofuel markets

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015 - © OECD 2015

‌A.28	Main policy assumptions for biofuel markets
A.28	Main policy assumptions for biofuel markets
‌	‌‌	‌‌	‌2014est‌	‌2015‌	‌2016‌	‌2017‌	‌2018‌	‌2019‌	‌2020‌	‌2021‌	‌2022‌	‌2023‌	‌2024‌
‌	ARGENTINA
‌	Biodiesel
‌	Export tax	%	11.8	6.2	6.2	6.2	6.2	6.2	6.2	6.2	6.2	6.2	6.2
‌	BRAZIL
‌	Ethanol
‌	Import tariffs	%	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
‌	Incorporation mandate 1	%	18.3	19.9	19.9	19.9	19.9	19.9	19.9	19.9	19.9	19.9	19.9
‌	Biodiesel
‌	Tax concessions 2	BRL/hl	13.5	19.5	18.0	16.3	14.6	14.8	15.1	15.6	16.1	16.5	14.1
‌	Import tariffs	%	4.6	4.6	4.6	4.6	4.6	4.6	4.6	4.6	4.6	4.6	4.6
‌	CANADA
‌	Ethanol
‌	Tax concessions 2	CAD/hl	6.4	6.4	6.4	6.4	6.4	6.4	6.4	6.4	6.4	6.4	6.4
‌	Import tariffs	CAD/hl	5.0	5.0	5.0	5.0	5.0	5.0	5.0	5.0	5.0	5.0	5.0
‌	Incorporation mandate 1	%	3.4	3.4	3.4	3.4	3.4	3.4	3.4	3.4	3.4	3.4	3.4
‌	Direct support
‌	Federal	CAD/hl	5.0	4.0	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
‌	Provincial	CAD/hl	4.3	4.3	4.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
‌	Biodiesel
‌	Tax concessions 2	CAD/hl	7.7	7.7	7.7	7.7	7.7	7.7	7.7	7.7	7.7	7.7	7.7
‌	Incorporation mandate 1	%	1.8	1.8	1.8	1.8	1.8	1.8	1.8	1.8	1.8	1.8	1.8
‌	Direct support
‌	Federal	CAD/hl	10.0	8.0	6.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
‌	Provincial	CAD/hl	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
‌	COLOMBIA
‌	Ethanol
‌	Import tariffs	%	9.7	9.7	9.7	9.7	9.7	9.7	9.7	9.7	9.7	9.7	9.7
‌	Blending target 3,4	%	8.0	8.0	9.0	9.0	9.0	9.0	10.0	10.0	10.0	10.0	10.0
‌	Biodiesel
‌	Blending target 4	%	10.0	10.0	10.0	10.0	10.0	10.0	10.0	10.0	10.0	10.0	10.0
‌	EUROPEAN UNION
‌	Biofuel
‌	Energy share in fuel consumption 5	%	5.2	5.6	6.0	6.4	6.8	7.0	7.0	7.0	7.0	7.0	7.0
‌	Ethanol
‌	Tax concessions 2	EUR/hl	18.3	18.3	18.3	18.3	18.3	18.3	18.3	18.3	18.3	18.3	18.3
‌	Import tariffs	EUR/hl	19.2	19.2	19.2	19.2	19.2	19.2	19.2	19.2	19.2	19.2	19.2
‌	Biodiesel
‌	Tax concessions 2	EUR/hl	19.4	19.4	19.4	19.4	19.4	19.4	19.4	19.4	19.4	19.4	19.4
‌	Import tariffs	%	6.5	6.5	6.5	6.5	6.5	6.5	6.5	6.5	6.5	6.5	6.5
‌	INDIA
‌	Ethanol
‌	Import tariffs	%	8.0	8.0	8.0	8.0	8.0	8.0	8.0	8.0	8.0	8.0	8.0
‌	Share of biofuel mandates in total fuel consumption	%	5.0	5.0	5.0	5.0	5.0	5.0	5.0	5.0	5.0	5.0	5.0
‌	Biodiesel
‌	Import tariffs	%	7.8	7.8	7.8	7.8	7.8	7.8	7.8	7.8	7.8	7.8	7.8
‌	Share of biofuel mandates in total fuel consumption	%	3.7	4.6	5.5	6.4	7.3	8.2	8.2	8.2	8.2	8.2	8.2
‌	INDONESIA
‌	Ethanol
‌	Import tariffs	%	26.3	26.3	26.3	26.3	26.3	26.3	26.3	26.3	26.3	26.3	26.3
‌	Blending target 4	%	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
‌	Biodiesel
‌	Blending target 4	%	10.0	11.0	13.0	14.0	15.0	17.0	18.0	19.0	21.0	22.0	24.0
‌	MALAYSIA
‌	Ethanol
‌	Import tariffs	%	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
‌	Blending target 4	%	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
‌	Biodiesel
‌	Blending target 4	%	5.0	5.0	6.0	6.0	6.0	6.0	7.0	7.0	7.0	7.0	7.0
‌	PERU
‌	Ethanol
‌	Import tariffs	%	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
‌	Blending target 4	%	7.8	7.8	7.8	7.8	7.8	7.8	7.8	7.8	7.8	7.8	7.8
‌	Biodiesel
‌	Import tariffs	%	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
‌	Blending target 4	%	5.0	5.0	5.0	5.0	5.0	5.0	5.0	5.0	5.0	5.0	5.0
‌	THAILAND
‌	Ethanol
‌	Import tariffs	%	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
‌	Blending target 4	%	8.3	9.3	10.4	11.4	12.4	13.5	14.5	15.6	16.6	17.6	18.7
‌	Biodiesel
‌	Blending target 4	%	5.0	5.0	6.0	6.0	6.0	6.0	7.0	7.0	7.0	7.0	7.0
‌	UNITED STATES
‌	Renewable Fuel Standard 6
‌	Total	mln L	60 793	61 141	61 247	60 794	60 460	60 051	59 841	59 620	59 348	59 086	58 835
‌	advanced mandate	mln L	8 713	8 875	8 894	8 841	8 819	8 772	8 748	8 796	8 792	8 799	8 817
‌	cellulosic ethanol	mln L	0	0	8	14	27	52	99	187	356	677	1 286
‌	biodiesel	mln L	4 845	4 845	4 845	4 845	4 845	4 845	4 845	4 845	4 845	4 845	4 845
‌	Ethanol
‌	Import surcharge	USD/hl	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
‌	Import tariffs (undenatured)	%	2.40	2.40	2.40	2.40	2.40	2.40	2.40	2.40	2.40	2.40	2.40
‌	Import tariffs (denatured)	%	1.90	1.90	1.90	1.90	1.90	1.90	1.90	1.90	1.90	1.90	1.90
‌	Blenders tax credit	USD/hl	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
‌	Biodiesel
‌	Import tariffs	%	4.60	4.60	4.60	4.60	4.60	4.60	4.60	4.60	4.60	4.60	4.60
‌	Blenders tax credit	USD/hl	26.42	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

Note: 2014est: Data for 2014 are estimated. For many countries, shares for ethanol and biodiesel are not individually specified in the legislation. Figures are based on a combination of the EU mandate in the context of the Renewable Energy Directive and the National Renewable Energy Action Plans (NREAP) in the EU member states.
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1.	Share in respective fuel type, energy equivalent.
2.	Difference between tax rates applying to fossil and biogen fuels.
3.	Applies to cities with more than 500 000 inhabitants.
4.	Expressed in volume share.
5.	According to the current Renewable energy Directive 2009/28/EC, the energy content of biofuel other than first-generation biofuels counts twice towards meeting the target. It is assumed that other sources than biofuel will help filling the 10% transport energy target.
6.	The total, advanced and cellulosic mandates are not at the levels defined in EISA. As those mandates are subject to uncertainties regarding EPA implementation, the following assumptions were taken to construct the baseline: the amount of ethanol being consumed in low blend mixes in the United States will not exceed the "blend wall" level of 10% and the development of the flex-fuel vehicle fleet will be limited. This means that the total mandate is assumed to be 60% lower than what is specified in RFS2 for 2024.
Source: OECD/FAO (2015), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en

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