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This work delves into the liquidations mechanism inherent in Decentralised Finance (DeFi) lending protocols and the connection between liquidations and price volatility in decentralised exchanges (DEXs). The analysis employs transactional data of three of the largest DeFi lending protocols and provides evidence of a positive relation between liquidations and post-liquidations price volatility across the main DEX pools. Without directly observing the behaviour of liquidators, these findings indirectly indicate that liquidators require market liquidity to carry out large liquidations and affect market conditions while doing so.

Digital security risk is increasing as malicious actors take advantage of the coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic. Coronavirus-related scams and phishing campaigns are on the rise. There are also cases of ransomware and distributed denial of service (DDoS) attacks targeting hospitals. Individuals and businesses should exercise caution when they receive coronavirus-related communications, and use appropriate digital security “hygiene” measures (e.g. patching, use of strong and different passwords, regular backups, etc.). It is essential that governments raise awareness, monitor the threat landscape and publish easily accessible guidelines for digital security hygiene, in particular to vulnerable groups such as the elderly and small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Governments should also co-operate with all relevant stakeholders, including to provide assistance to operators of critical activities such as hospitals, as appropriate.

French, Portuguese

This article looks at the stages of crisis management and some of the different degrees of transparency on losses and risks in the US and Europe. It also compares alternative approaches to dealing with impaired assets used in the USA and Europe. Exposure to off-balance losses remains a key issue. Europe, surprisingly, has been and remains the major issuer of collateralised synthetic obligations that have been so prominent in the crisis. The capital needs of banks over the next few years is examined, and great uncertainties remain due to the unknown extent to which off-balance sheet vehicles will need to be consolidated. Finally, the requirements of longer-run reform are outlined.

The paper begins with a brief description of the relationship between Yugoslavia and its creditors throughout the 1980s, providing a background for the introduction of debt conversions in Yugoslav practice. The main features of the legal environment for debt conversions, especially of the debt conversion programme initiated in March 1989, are then reviewed. The paper then focuses on the main patterns of debt conversions executed in Yugoslavia with respect to their volume, structure of transactions, sources of funds and debt reduction effects. It appears in particular that the Yugoslav debt conversion programme presents many original features when compared with similar programmes implemented in several developing countries. Finally, the paper provides a review of the micro and macroeconomic implications of debt conversions, including the cost and benefits of these transactions, and concludes that this programme has been quite successful for Yugoslavia ...

Discussions at the 11th OECD-WBG-IMF Global Bond Market Forum focused on four key areas: i) the impact of crisis-related measures and the potential implications of exit; ii) the measurement of sovereign risk; iii) the determinants of investor demand; and iv) debt managers’ response to the crisis. Overall, participants felt that the steps taken to stabilise financial conditions had generally been effective and that conditions in financial markets were normalising. However, discussions highlighted a number of ongoing risks including: i) while credible consolidation plans were needed, fiscal and monetary policy would be tightened too soon; ii) managing investor uncertainty would prove critical in managing risk in the near-term; and (iii) regulatory changes might lead to a deterioration in conditions in primary and secondary markets and otherwise aggravate the challenges facing debt managers. JEL Classification: G15, G18, G20, G24, G32, G38, H62, H68 Keywords: Outlook on public deficits and government debt, crisis and debt management policies, government debt market, measurement of sovereign risk, investor demand, exit strategy

Investment in most heavily indebted countries has been weak since 1982. The widely accepted debt overhang proposition interprets the investment drop as a moral hazard problem: a heavy debt burden raises the incentive to consume, because the marginal benefit of investment would go to the creditor. This paper develops several hypotheses on optimal reactions of a credit-constrained debtor country on an increase in debt, on variations in the credit constraint, on changes in interest rates, and contrasts these with the predictions stemming from the debt overhang proposition.

Empirical specifications of conventional investment functions and consumption functions (along the Permanent Income Hypothesis) lead to reject the debt overhang proposition, but find that the switch from positive to negative external transfers to the debtor countries is an important explanation for their investment drop. The major policy conclusion is that the 1989 shift in international debt management (the Brady ...

Debt levels have surged since the mid-1990s and have reached historic highs across the OECD. High debt levels can create vulnerabilities, which amplify and transmit macroeconomic and asset price shocks. Furthermore, high debt levels hinder the ability of households and enterprises to smooth consumption and investment and of governments to cushion adverse shocks. The empirical evidence suggests that when private sector debt levels, particularly for households, rise above trend the likelihood of recession increases. Measures of financial leverage give less warning and typically only deteriorate once the economy begins to slow and asset prices are falling. Government debt typically rises after the onset of a recession, suggesting that there is a migration of debt across balance sheets. Some policies, such as robust micro prudential regulation and frameworks to deal with debt overhangs and maintain public debt at prudent levels, can help economies withstand adverse shocks. Other policy options, such as addressing biases in tax codes that favour debt financing and targeted macro-prudential policies, will help bring down debt levels and address future run ups in debt.
How does debt affect macroeconomic stability? The answer to this question has important implications, because both public and private debt levels have reached historic highs across the OECD. While accumulating debt can help smooth real activity, at high levels debt creates weaknesses in corporate, household and government balance sheets. High debt levels can create vulnerabilities, which amplify and transmit macroeconomic and asset price shocks across the economy and internationally. The empirical evidence shows that high debt levels impair the ability of households and enterprises to smooth consumption and investment and of governments to cushion adverse shocks. The empirical evidence also suggests that when private sector debt levels, particularly for households, rise above trend the likelihood of recession increases. Furthermore, when debt levels are high, recessions tend to be more severe.
Accumulating debt raises concerns about its implications for macroeconomic stability. This paper sheds light on the implications of high indebtedness for the macroeconomic volatility by identifying the main drivers of the evolution of debt in a set of countries. The country choice was based on large deleveraging episodes of total economy debt, identified by turning point dating. The analysis shows that GDP is more volatile in the phase of deleveraging. However, countries can be distinguished into two groups. In a first set of countries (Germany, Israel, Mexico and the United States) economic activity has often rebounded during the phase of deleveraging. On the contrary, in a second group of countries, the higher volatility during the deleveraging phase has been accompanied by sluggish economic activity. Countries in this second group (for instance, Japan and Sweden) share the common characteristic that higher indebtedness was driven by a boom in asset prices. When asset prices burst, the financial sector cuts credit supply, which weighs on economic activity. The results also suggest that many episodes of debt leveraging have been naturally driven by boom in asset price used as collateral or by financial liberalisation, which have facilitated excessive borrowing.
Using a large panel of OECD countries this paper studies the link between debt and macroeconomic stability by comparing the evolution of balance sheet aggregates and economic output in high- and lowdebt environments. While the relationship between debt and economic growth has been extensively studied in the literature, only little attention has been paid to the impact of debt on volatility and higher moments of output growth distributions. This paper fills in this gap. Debt-fuelled expansions are found to typically last longer but to culminate in a more sizeable downturn. The greater amplitude of business cycles in high-debt environments reflects higher macroeconomic volatility but also higher tail risks and adverse asymmetries in output growth distributions. The induced welfare losses justify policy interventions aiming at preventing excessive build-ups in debt ex-ante.

Multinational enterprises (MNEs) manipulate the location of their debts to reduce their corporate tax burden. Indeed, by locating debts in higher-tax rate countries, MNEs can deduct interest payments against a higher tax rate. This paper provides evidence of such manipulation of debt location. The analysis is based on a large sample of firm-level data from the ORBIS database. By comparing the indebtedness of MNE entities with similar characteristics but different debt shifting opportunities, the analysis suggests that a 1 percentage point higher tax rate is associated with 1.3% higher third-party debt. This is a lower bound estimate of debt manipulation, since it excludes the manipulation of internal debt. The analysis also shows that strict rules limiting interest deductibility (e.g. thin capitalisation or interest-to-earnings rules) can reduce debt manipulation. The possibility to locate debts in higher-tax rate countries reduces the effective cost of debt for MNE groups. The empirical analysis suggests that this can lead MNE groups to increase their overall external indebtedness, compounding the “debt bias” existing in most tax systems.

This paper explores the nexus between decarbonisation and intergovernmental fiscal relations, focusing on related challenges and reform options. It highlights the significant role of subnational governments in tackling climate change. Subnational and national governments share responsibilities in areas such as taxation, spending and regulation pertaining to environmental protection, as well as climate change mitigation and adaptation, which calls for effective intergovernmental co-operation to align policy objectives and implementation strategies. The paper outlines decarbonisation requirements across sectors and discusses subnational government involvement in service delivery, investment, revenue generation and regulatory frameworks. Policy options to strengthen subnational contributions to national decarbonisation goals are presented. While focusing primarily on OECD countries, the paper acknowledges the need for improved information on subnational decarbonisation efforts in both advanced and developing countries.

This report provides an overview of technological, operational and policy measures that can accelerate the decarbonisation of aviation. Its goal is to support governments and aviation stakeholders looking to introduce aviation decarbonisation measures regionally, nationally and internationally. All measures are discussed in light of their cost-effectiveness and the potential barriers to their implementation. The report summarises the conclusions from an expert workshop held in February 2020 as part of the International Transport Forum’s Decarbonising Transport initiative.

This paper reviews opportunities for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions from Argentina’s transport sector. It also identifies the main challenges for that objective, specifically in freight transport. Actions taken at different levels of government are assessed and the impact of policies focused on other priorities - such as lowering logistic costs - is discussed. The paper also highlights what data on transport emissions are available for Argentina and which tools government agencies use for examining them.

Spanish

This paper reviews opportunities and challenges for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions from Azerbaijan’s transport sector. It provides an overview of Azerbaijan’s transport system and reviews the country’s existing policies and future plans for reducing CO2 emissions from transport. The paper also provides an overview of the data on transport activity and emissions available for Azerbaijan, and the tools used by government agencies for assessing them. Finally, it proposes options for further action in the context of ITF’s “Decarbonising Transport in Emerging Economies” (DTEE) project.

Azerbaijani

Trucks account for one-fifth of transport sector emissions in Europe. To decarbonise, heavy-duty road freight must switch to zero-emission vehicles quickly. This report examines whether battery electric vehicles, electric road systems and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles could compete with diesel-driven vehicles. It looks at the total cost of ownership across nine different vehicle-size segments in Europe. The report gives six recommendations to accelerate the transition to zero-emission trucks, including the provision of necessary infrastructure.

This report presents an analysis of current transport activity in India and reviews key policy instruments set up by Indian institutions to shape transport developments in the coming years. It also investigates future scenarios of transport in India and outlines key aspects that should be considered in the upcoming work on transport decarbonisation. The final section builds on these insights, charting a way forward for a climate change mitigation strategy for the Indian transport sector. In particular, it underlines the importance of taking an approach that is not limited to direct GHG emission reductions but takes into account a lifecycle perspective.

This report examines what would be needed to achieve zero CO2 emissions from international maritime transport by 2035. It assesses measures that can reduce shipping emissions effectively and describes possible decarbonisation pathways that use different combinations of these measures. In addition, it reviews under which conditions these measures could be implemented and presents concrete policy recommendations.

This report examines the factors that have put Sweden at the forefront of decarbonisation of maritime transport, and how other countries could learn from this success story. It details Sweden's efforts to decarbonise its shipping industry and sheds light on remaining challenges and potential solutions to achieve zero-carbon shipping.

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