Browse by: "2006"

Malawi provides valuable experience on the advantages of a holistic approach when attempting reforms, and on how to manage longer reform programmes. Since 1995, the budget process has been based on the principles of the Medium-term Expenditure Framework. This article presents the findings of a comprehensive review of the MTEF in 1999/2000 which examined its strengths and weaknesses, the possible causes and the proposed reforms required. MTEF Phase II is targeted at strengthening the management and co-ordination of the budget process, ensuring that there is political leadership of the budget process, improving policy and budget scrutiny processes, and strengthening financial accountability systems. The article also draws on a review of the education sector for a line ministry perspective on whether and how budgetary reforms assist in improving service delivery.

Mozambique is undergoing a number of major reforms in the public sector including reform of the public finance management system. This article describes the environment before the budget reforms, highlighting the weaknesses in budget planning and preparation, budget implementation and the governance framework including the weak oversight role of Parliament. A legal framework was put in place as a first step. Underlying systemic problems were addressed to allow clearer linkages between budgets and service delivery. Then budget planning reforms were introduced. The article discusses the nature of the major technical reforms, considers the governance framework and provides an assessment of the effectiveness of the reforms.

In this paper the authors describe the outline of an analysis of disruptive technologies presented by Christensen in his book, The Innovator’s Dilemma. They go on to argue that the analysis can be applied to the practice of e-learning as it has been developed in higher education in the United Kingdom, and possibly elsewhere. They suggest that current moves away from fully developed e-learning and towards “blended learning” can be understood in terms of Christensen’s analysis, and that the move may be an indication that large, established organisations have difficulty in adjusting to disruptive technologies. They conclude that much research needs to be done in the area of e-learning, especially small scale studies of how e-learning can be used away from the established culture of formal education. This is an approach to market research that is also contained in Christensen’s analysis. In summary, they argue that Christensen’s analysis offers some important insights into the process of adopting e-learning solutions in higher education, and also suggests some fruitful directions for future research.

Cet article présente les grandes lignes d’une analyse des technologies dites de rupture proposée par Christensen dans son ouvrage The Innovator’s Dilemma. Selon les auteurs, cette analyse pourrait être appliquée à la cyberformation telle qu’elle a été mise en œuvre dans l’enseignement supérieur au Royaume-Uni et peut-être dans d’autres pays. En effet, elle permettrait d’expliquer la tendance à s’éloigner de la cyberformation en tant que méthode à part entière au profit de « l’enseignement hybride », phénomène qui témoignerait sans doute des difficultés qu’ont les grandes structures établies à s’adapter aux technologies de rupture. Les auteurs concluent que de nombreuses recherches doivent être menées dans le domaine de l’enseignement en ligne, notamment des études de cas à petite échelle sur son utilisation en-dehors de la culture du système éducatif classique. Cette conception de l’étude de marché fait d’ailleurs également partie de l’analyse de Christensen. En résumé, les auteurs considèrent que cette dernière offre un éclairage fort utile sur la marche à suivre pour implanter la cyberformation dans l’enseignement supérieur, et qu’elle donne aussi de précieuses indications pour orienter la recherche.

The international OECD/NRC BWR Full-size Fine-Mesh Bundle Tests (BFBT) benchmark, based on the NUPEC database, encourages advancement in sub-channel analysis of two-phase flow in rod bundles, which has great relevance with regard to the nuclear reactor safety margin evaluation. This benchmark specification is being designed so that it can systematically assess and compare the participants’ numerical models for the prediction of detailed sub-channel void distributions and critical powers to full-scale experimental data on a prototypical BWR rod bundle. Currently the numerical modelling of sub-channel void distribution has no theoretical approach that can be applied to a wide range of geometrical and operating conditions. In the past decade, experimental and computational technologies have tremendously improved the study of the two-phase flow structure. Over the next decade, it can be expected that mechanistic approaches will be more widely applied to the complicated two-phase fluid phenomena inside fuel bundles. The development of truly mechanistic models for critical power prediction is currently underway. These models must include processes such as void distribution, droplet deposition, liquid film entrainment and spacer grid behaviour. The benchmark specification requires participants to explain their modelling correlations between the measured critical power and the two-phase flow dominant processes.

Les règles qui limitent les pouvoirs discrétionnaires des responsables des politiques budgétaires sont aujourd’hui courantes dans les économies de l’OCDE, et le rôle croissant que jouent les institutions décentralisées dans l’offre des services publics a entraîné leur généralisation à l’échelon territorial. Des règles bien conçues permettent de tirer des gains d’efficience de l’autonomie locale tout en facilitant l’assainissement budgétaire, en amortissant les chocs économiques et en répondant aux objectifs de viabilité à long terme des finances publiques, tâches d’autant plus urgentes que, selon les prévisions, les services rendus par les collectivités territoriales seront de plus en plus sollicités du fait du vieillissement de la population.

L’augmentation régulière des investissements étrangers directs (IDE) depuis quelques dizaines d’années explique que les entreprises multinationales d’origine étrangère jouent maintenant un grand rôle dans de nombreuses économies développées ou en développement. Les pays se font concurrence pour attirer ces investissements, parce qu’ils attendent des filiales de multinationales étrangères qu’elles contribuent à leur bien-être de multiples façons. Mais quelle est l’incidence exacte de leur présence sur l’économie du pays d’accueil?

Le niveau de la productivité horaire du travail est, avec la durée du travail, le taux d’emploi et la part de la population en âge de travailler dans la population totale, l’un des déterminants comptables du niveau du PIB par habitant. Hors, de multiples analyses indiquent que les niveaux de productivité horaire du travail seraient très proches, voire même supérieurs, dans plusieurs pays européen, au niveau observé aux États-Unis alors que, simultanément, le PIB par habitant y serait très nettement inférieur (cf.

À l’heure actuelle, 64 pays représentant 44 % de la population mondiale ont des taux de fécondité totale égaux ou inférieurs au seuil de remplacement. Dans un grand nombre d’entre eux, le taux de fécondité totale n’atteint pas 1.5, et certains même accusent des taux inférieurs au seuil de remplacement depuis plusieurs décennies. Des taux de fécondité bas concourent au vieillissement rapide et à la contraction des populations.

Compte tenu des disparités actuelles de taux de croissance relatifs et de soldes des paiements courants entre économies de l’OCDE, l’incidence des réformes structurelles sur les déséquilibres extérieurs est un thème qui suscite beaucoup d’intérêt. Les responsables de la politique économique, en particulier, se demandent ce qui doit et peut être fait pour résoudre ce problème.

The OECD Guidelines on Pension Fund Asset Management set out a basic framework for the regulation of pension fund investment. The Guidelines start with the basic premise that the regulatory framework should take into account the retirement income objective of a pension fund. Two other essential aspects of the regulatory framework are the prudent person standard and the statement of investment policy. Regulations may also include quantitative limits, but only as long as they are consistent with and promote the prudential principles of security, profitability and liquidity pursuant to which assets should be invested. These Guidelines were developed by the Working Party on Private Pensions and the Insurance and Private Pensions Committee and were adopted by the OECD Council on 26 January 2006. They complement the "Recommendation of the Council on Core Principles of Occupational Pension Regulation", adopted by the OECD Council in July 2004.

In addition to private pension fund and life insurance assets, several countries have accumulated large amounts of pension assets in their national pension reserve funds. Pension reserve fund refers to assets set aside by otherwise pay-as-you-go systems in preparation for the rising fiscal costs resulting from the predicted ageing of the population over the next few decades.

Long-term bond yields have been low in recent years both in nominal and real terms, and – especially in the United States – they have reacted differently to shifts in monetary and fiscal stances relative to previous cycles. This article examines various possible explanations for this behaviour, such as the effects of changes in monetary policy frameworks on inflation and interest rate expectations; developments in ex ante saving-investment balances, and shifts in investors’ portfolio preferences (including official reserve accumulation, “petro-dollar” recycling and pension fund demand for longer maturities). The article concludes that it is unlikely that any individual explanation can account for the level and profile of bond yields in recent years, but that an important element has been a compression in term premia, together with shifts in expected short rates. Even though bond yields have started to rise in the early part of 2006, they are unlikely to go back to the levels that prevailed in the 1980s or the early 1990s, as several of the factors that drove them lower are set to persist.

Over the past few years China has emerged as a major player in the global economy with a pivotal position in global production, trade and, increasingly, finance. In the context of large imbalances in world growth rates, China has helped sustain world economic expansion, especially in the Asia Pacific region. China is also an important force in global financial flows. The country is one of the world’s largest recipients of FDI inflows. Moreover, China, along with other Asian economies, has been accumulating reserves, thereby supporting the present configuration of exchange rates in major OECD regions. The country is now a major investor in key asset markets, such as the international market in government securities.

This paper empirically explores the impact of pension funds on market volatility, equity prices, government and corporate bond yields for a panel of 24 countries. The results show a positive and statistically significant relationship between market volatility and pension assets. It complements micro evidence (Dennis and Strickland, 2002) as well as macro findings (Davis, 2004). In addition, equity prices are found to be positively correlated with pension funds, a finding observable for both OECD countries and emerging market economies (EMEs) and present in both the short and long terms. Furthermore, there is evidence indicating a negative link between pension fund assets and both corporate and government bond yields. This might be due to the sizeable buying effects of pension funds, particularly when governments have the tendency to use pension funds to finance implicit pension debts when the traditional pay-as-you-go systems shift to funded systems.