OECD Sovereign Borrowing Outlook 2019

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The OECD Sovereign Borrowing Outlook provides regular updates on trends and developments associated with sovereign borrowing requirements, funding strategies, market infrastructure and debt levels from the perspective of public debt managers. The Outlook makes a policy distinction between funding strategy and borrowing requirements. The central government marketable gross borrowing needs, or requirements, are calculated on the basis of budget deficits and redemptions. The funding strategy entails decisions on how borrowing needs are going to be financed using different instruments and which distribution channels are being used.

This edition provides data, information and background on sovereign borrowing needs and discusses funding strategies and debt management policies for the OECD area and country groupings. In particular, it examines: gross borrowing requirements; net borrowing requirements; central government marketable debt; interactions between fiscal policy, public debt management and monetary policy; funding strategies, procedures and instruments; liquidity in secondary markets; and changes in the investor base.



Sovereign borrowing outlook for OECD countries

Between 2007 and 2018, the borrowing needs of OECD governments surged drastically and outstanding central government marketable debt for the OECD area as a whole doubled in nominal terms. At the same time, favourable funding conditions eased debt sustainability concerns and enabled public debt managers to enhance the resilience of public finances to shocks. Looking forward, while OECD sovereigns as a whole need to sell more than USD 11 trillion to the markets this year, the central government marketable debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to remain constant in 2019. Against this background, this chapter provides an overview of borrowing, deficits, redemptions and debt developments in the OECD area over 2007-2019. Public debt management is part of the overall macroeconomic policy framework which encompasses monetary, fiscal and macro-prudential policies. With that in mind, this chapter discusses the implications of fiscal policy and monetary policy developments for public debt dynamics as well as government debt securities markets. The analysis includes strategic considerations on interest rate and investor base developments, and secondary market liquidity conditions from a public debt management perspective. This chapter also includes a box on security lending practices of sovereign debt management offices.* This chapter was published online on 8 February 2019. *


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