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Russia and the Post 2012 Climate Regime

Emission Trends, Commitments and Bargains

image of Russia and the Post 2012 Climate Regime

This report analyzes the development trends and conditions of the Russian economy, specifically its energy sector. It also reviews the projections of carbon emissions by 2020 and beyond in the context of the Russian government's scenarios of economic development. The second section of the report focuses on Russia's position in the negotiation process on a post-2012 climate regime, including the emission limitation pledge, carry-over of the surplus of assigned amount units (AAU) beyond 2012 and the forest carbon sinks. The report is written by Dr George Safonov, State University - Higher School of Economics/ Russian Environmental Defense Fund and Dr Oleg Lugovoy, Russian Environmental Defense Fund and Dr Anna Korppoo, the Finnish Institute of International Affairs. The Nordic Ministers of Environments established the Nordic COP 15 Group early in 2008. In January 2010 the group was renamed to the Nordic ad hoc Group on Global Climate Negotiations. The main tasks of the group are to prepare reports and studies, conduct relevant meetings and organize conferences supporting the Nordic negotiators in the UN climate negotiations. The overall aim of the group is to contribute to a global and comprehensive agreement on climate change with ambitious emission reduction commitments.

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Russia's carbon emissions: drivers and factors

Historically, Russia has been one of the largest sources of carbon emissions in the world. During the Soviet era, Russia was responsible for around onefifth of global CO2 emissions coming from energy consumption, thus the country has responsibility for a large share of cumulative anthropogenic carbon emissions into the atmosphere. Even after the economic collapse of 1990s and ensuing sharp drop in industrial production, Russia is still one of the leading greenhouse gas (GHG) emitters. In 2007, Russia was the third largest emitter of CO2 from the energy sector after China and USA, and the fourth largest if the EU is considered a single emitter (see Figure 1.1).

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