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OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030

image of OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030

The OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030 provides analyses of economic and environmental trends to 2030, and simulations of policy actions to address the key challenges. Without new policies, we risk irreversibly damaging the environment and the natural resource base needed to support economic growth and well-being. The costs of policy inaction are high.

But the Outlook shows that tackling the key environmental problems we face today -- including climate change, biodiversity loss, water scarcity and the health impacts of pollution -- is both achievable and affordable. It highlights a mix of policies that can address these challenges in a cost-effective way. The focus of this Outlook is expanded from the 2001 edition to reflect developments in both OECD countries and Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, China, South Africa (BRIICS), and how they might better co-operate on global and local environmental problem-solving.

"An indispensable addition to the expanding body of environmental literature...Essential"

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Key Variations to the Standard Expectation to 2030

The Outlook Baseline assumes that, without any new policy action, world economic growth and globalisation to 2030 will follow similar trends as seen over the past few decades. This is just an assumption and should not be seen as a forecast of the future: it represents what might happen without any major new events or policies. This chapter explores some of the uncertainties associated with the Baseline, and examines how projections might vary with different assumptions about the productivity growth rate and the rate of globalisation. These variations to the Baseline suggest that higher medium-term growth would amplify impacts on the environment, and increased trade and changing patterns of production would lead to higher energy demands for the world as a whole. These variations illustrate the considerable differences that changes in a few key drivers could make to the nature of the world economy and its pressures on the environment.

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